Thanks for joining BP and sharing your story, @Charles Ownby
It sounds like you've been through a lot and are doing everything in you power to get started in this business. That's great to hear.
There are a few areas where I think some intentional focus can do wonders for you:
1) Building a strong personal financial foundation.
2) Continue self-education and Create a clear-cut business plan for the project.
A strong personal financial foundation.
You are dependent on creative financing to complete a rehab project on a property that you own, free and clear. This speaks to an opportunity to improve your personal finances. A good emergency reserve for your personal life is 3-6 months of expenses, in cash. On top of that, I'd like to see $15,000 - $25,000 in emergency reserves for your first investment property, and another $10,000 per additional property. Even in the case of a property that is owned free and clear, your situation demonstrates that fact that life is just so much easier when you have access to liquidity.
I think that you should focus on this as your number one goal. How do you generate a meaningful surplus in your day to day life, so that each month, you save up $1,000, $1,500, $2,000, or more, in cash, after tax, that can be deployed towards your first or next investment?
How can you keep this up until you have 6 months personal emergency reserve, PLUS $15,000 - $25,000?
The easiest way to do this is to sell the property to someone else, and use the proceeds to shore up your overall financial position. Then, you can reinvest in the future, from a stronger position. This is the most immediately actionable and obvious next step to me, based on your situation. I am skeptical, at first read, of the analysis that $30-$60K in rehab will add $180-200K in value. I will elaborate on this later on.
If you choose not to sell the property, then this still applies, and becomes even more important. Investing in real estate is automatic and recurring with a strong personal financial position that is well-capitalized and produces strong positive cash flows. It's really hard without one. RE sucks cash OUT of your life in the early part of the hold period. This compounds weakness in the personal financial position.
You've done a great job in repairing your credit, but I wonder if the other planks of a strong financial foundation, including a strong emergency reserve, and a strong monthly positive cash flow are in place. These are essentials, in my opinion, for getting into this business.
Continue Self-Education and Create a Clear-Cut business Plan for the Project:
Your analysis paints the following picture:
-The property is worth $80-$100K.
- $30K to $60K of rehab is needed.
- After which, the property will be worth $180K to $200K.
A flipper would analyze this project conservatively, and assume a purchase price of $100K, a rehab cost of $60K, and an ARV of $180K. You would do well to narrow this range considerably, but let's take the conservative case.
In the conservative case you are "investing" $160K to make $20K. Your analysis likely does not include holding costs (utlities, taxes, insurance, and hard money costs). A flipper would likely use a hard money loan to finance the project. Your first project will take at least 3 months if you are good, and 6 months if you struggle. We should plan on 6 months for a first project, with the exception of those going into this business full-time, and hope for the 3 month rehab. Interest on a $75K hard money loan at 10% interest is $3,250 over 6 months, and you will likely pay another $2,000 in points.
All told and your profit on this project is conservatively projected to be a few thousand dollars or very close to zero.
Try running those numbers in the flipping calculator here on BP, and see what you come up with. If I'm right on this, then you need to either:
- Revisit your assumptions and see if your conservative case is actually closer to the middle of those ranges you produced.
- Or sell the property and use the proceeds to bolster your financial position overall.
Conclusion:
In writing this, I've talked myself into the idea that the best thing you can do here is probably to sell your property, take the proceeds, shore up your personal financial position, and begin building towards the next investment, perhaps a year or so down the road. That's probably the last thing you expected, but I am interested to hear your thoughts and others' reactions.