@Jason Yamnitz
I've been day trading for 7 years. I see all the things about a looming downturn you're talking about. I agree that a downturn is going to happen. As of September 2018, my plan was to sit on the sidelines and wait for the real estate market to sell off and then start buying. But at the end of this October I found bigger pockets.
I've listened to about 45 podcasts and read 6 books in addition to articles and local real estate meetings I've attended. What all the information I've gathering attempting to "time" a market is not a great idea. In addition, analyzing, making offers, developing your team, closing, and managing properties are all skill sets that get developed and become better over time. If you hold back on the sidelines, you won't continue to develop those skill-sets. Of course that doesn't mean you buy any bad deals, but maybe buy properties that have multiple exit strategies. One of the biggest problems that investors put themselves in is they were over-leveraged when the 2007 crash happened. If you buy one rental and there is a crash similar to 2007, will you have enough reserves to outlast the downturn?. My guess is yes, I don't think a lot of people are making that mistake again.
In addition to the advice I'm giving, just as an fyi, I just got an offer accepted for my first full time investment property. Just a straight rental. I also live in Florida, but closer to Miami, and have found that I can not successfully use the strategies I want to to invest in property down here. I'm going to be doing my first BRRR property sometime by February.
Chad