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All Forum Posts by: Christopher Covell

Christopher Covell has started 1 posts and replied 19 times.

Post: Why Paying OFF A Mortgage Is NOT Necessarily Smart

Christopher CovellPosted
  • Investor
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 8

Thanks for posting, Wendell. This is some very interesting stuff. I hadn’t heard the term “Loan Constant” before and it’s an interesting tool to consider the true cost of borrowing.

One (minor) observation of the post is I think for consistency the first example (401k) should be calculated like the interest only example further now rather than amortizing over 3 years (since the assumption was no amortization).

Thanks for sharing :)

Post: Turnkey Rental Property a good idea for a first-timer?

Christopher CovellPosted
  • Investor
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 8

@Cassandra Boyett As a green investor not much further down the road than yourself, I’ve found the idea of turn-key’s to be very appealing. There are reputable turn-key companies out there that do aim to deliver quality homes in good areas. Unfortunately, so far what I’ve found every time is these homes tend to be listed at or above market price with above-market rents. This is a two-fold hit against you right off the bat:

First of course is that as an investor I want to get into a property below market value. There are plenty of properties out there. Many sell near market value, some sell higher and some lower – so why as an investor would I buy one that I know is high? I like the mantra “make your money when you buy”. I want to find value, not set the value for the area!

Secondly, if rent is substantially above market it raises a red flag to me as to the quality and longevity of the tenant(s) in place. How likely would I be able to sustain that level of rent? Would there be high turnover at that price? Are the renters in place higher risk tenants? The turnkey company has incentive to command the highest rent feasibly possible because it makes the CAPs look better. I’ve seen some turnkeys with rents that are at 20-30+% above the market.

I mean, it makes sense for the turnkey company to make a profit. I’m all for that and for them to reap the returns of the work they put into it to. I just don’t want to buy a property at the upper end of its value. All that said, Real Estate is a great investment and has the capacity to forgive some mistakes. As members have shared in podcasts, even many of their mistakes and missteps still turned a profit. Just not as big a profit as if they had made the better/wiser move. So I would say buying a good turnkey property is better than buying nothing at all. In fact I’m sure some turnkey investors do very well.

The veterans around here can give far better advice how to analyze turnkeys, but as a start:

Use sites like realtor.com and zillow to get a ballpark value (look at the comps). Other sites like PadMapper, Craigslist, ApartmentHunterz, and RentOMeter can help you determine what the market rate is for rents. Once you get familiar with these sites (and I’m sure many more great ones out there) you can quickly get an idea if the property is listed at, above or below value.

Get to know the local expenses (approximately what % of the purchase price are taxes? insurance?). I've seen some turn keys that understate expenses to again boost their claimed CAP rate. Also, check out local crime on a site like trulia and look on Street View to get some sort of feel for the area (I know it's not the same as being there, but you can tell a lot more from street view than just a single photograph from the curb).

If you find areas you want to invest in, perhaps try reaching out to the BP community for referrals – find a reputable broker local to that area who can be your eyes and ears.

Oh, and welcome to BP! Good luck with your search.

Post: Multi-Million Dollar San Diego Rehab/Spec Project

Christopher CovellPosted
  • Investor
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 8

Wow, thanks for sharing Mark. As a fellow San Diegan I'll be curious to see how the project pans out. What's the time-frame for a project like this? I know in Solana Beach it can even take years to get the permits and approvals to build something new (especially if you have to deal with the California Coastal Commission). 

Post: Need help to analyze 8-plex in Dallas, TX

Christopher CovellPosted
  • Investor
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 8

@Hattie Dizmond has a point. That area (across Bachman Lake from the airport) doesn't look like the kind of area I would want to invest in:

Post: Need help to analyze 8-plex in Dallas, TX

Christopher CovellPosted
  • Investor
  • San Diego, CA
  • Posts 22
  • Votes 8

At $330k I would not be very excited about the per door cashflow or the CAP rate. As @Account Closed said you'll need to compare the CAP in context of what that area of the Dallas market is supporting. Even within the local market whether this is a good or bad deal can depend on other variables like location (e.g. is this a desirable property or conversely is this a poor location?). I am not a Dallas expert but having recently browsed the market there I suspect with some digging you can find closer to 10% cap on good properties.

Taking those numbers at face value I'm thinking the property begins to get interesting below $270k.

A few of my (novice) thoughts:

  • The trend of local commerce moving out is a big red flag to me. I would want to invest in areas that are growing / increasing in demand. The fact that businesses are leaving is not a positive sign for the future outlook!
  • If that wasn’t enough to drive me away then I would want to get to the bottom of those two vacant apartments. How much renovation is needed to get them to a rentable state? This could make the difference between a mediocre deal and a good deal.
  • @ $67 / door the deal does not sound very enticing for a low-income (higher-risk) area, though that number alone isn’t the end-all (for instance the cash-on-cash return and rent to value ratios sound decent, but you have to take all that in context of the area and trends).
  • Your maintenance / repairs estimates do sound highly-conservative. Perhaps try to estimate up-front renovations separately so you can include a more realistic monthly maintenance estimate. If it is closer to 10% that nearly doubles your estimated cash flow.
  • I know next to nothing about section-8 renters so I would really want to study up on that before jumping in.
  • Maybe the most important question is what do you think you could get the property for? They may be asking $260k, but given the situation I’m willing to bet they would accept a lower offer. Some clues that may help:
    • Can you see how much it last sold for?
    • How long has it been on the market?
    • If you’re still really interested then starting a dialogue with the seller may give you a better idea of the seller’s situation and incentive to sell.

I’m curious to see what others weigh-in with – and please correct me where I’m wrong so I can learn too!

@James Wise - Thanks James! I appreciate all the friendly welcomes.

@Mark Whittlesey - I grew up in Encinitas (Cardiff to be precise)! Have you ventured into out-of-state investing or do you stay local?
@Gene Hacker - Thanks Gene, I've barely scratched the surface of reading of all the relevant archived topics so I'm sure I'll be returning many times.

@Ewa Reza - I just spent the weekend up in Bakersfield and Fresno (visiting family). While some areas look somewhat interesting, I agree it is still expensive for cash flowing. I'm starting to look in Fresno too as well as considering out of state.

@Dmitriy Fomichenko - Thanks for the tips!

@Dave Visaya 

Thanks Dave! I've already found so many useful tools and connections. This is quite an amazing group. I appreciate that there are so many diverse, intelligent and knowledgeable comments on the forums.

@Paul Timmins Thanks for all the tips Paul. I devoured the beginner's guide and have jumped into the podcasts. I appreciate all the ideas for getting started. I've already run across many posts by J Scott and found them insightful. I'll definitely check out those books too.

Cheers!

-Chris

Hi all, my name is Chris Covell and I'm a born and bred San Diegan. I am an Aerospace Engineer and chose Engineering for my passion for the practical application of numbers. It turns out investing falls right in line with that passion (though the numbers are far more straightforward!).

San Diego is a tough market for a young family to own in, but my wife and I managed to buy our first home here eight years ago. Since then we have been building our savings, equity and investments but the sky-high prices of San Diego have prevented us (or scared us) from further investment in real estate. Our long-term goal is to build cashflow through rentals so I can spend more time with my family (instead of 50+ hr weeks in the office).

I believe San Diego is a tough market for a beginner investor like myself (feel free to chime in on that!). As I have read and studied spreadsheets and strategies (remember, I love numbers), I keep coming to the conclusion that San Diego is generally priced well out of being reasonable for rental investment. Plus you're definitely not going to find a fourplex for $100k or even $200k.

My biggest roadblock is I just don't see the kind of deals and opportunities others on BiggerPockets have posted about. I am certain they are out there, but due to my inexperience I'm just not finding them. I have moved my search to Bakersfield where I lived during high school and where my wife grew up and has family. I'm not sure if it's smart for a beginner investor to start out by investing in a city 200 miles away but I just don't see San Diego working as a start!

Thanks for reading my long intro. I look forward to meeting many of you and hearing your thoughts on SoCal investing!