@john chapman
Well thought out post.
But, like politics, I suspect that All Real Estate Is Local.
Fifteen years ago or so, I paid 200k for a 4 plex. The units (all 2 BR) rent for $850. Payment/Taxes/Insurance is $1,400 per month. The laundry pays the utilities, more/less. The property taxes cannot increase by more than 2% in any one year, per the State Constitution.
In 2008, my family (3 of us) moved into it while we built a custom home in Riverside. While living in the apartment, I took the opportunity to refinance it as "owner occupied", with no problems whatsoever.
While living there, I had zero issues with any tenants. I ONLY rent to families with small children. No single people, except for students in advanced degree programs at the nearby private university.
My building is one of approximately 20 identical buildings, all side by side, on one street, within one block of Loma Linda University. Loma Linda University purchased the building directly across the street from mine for $640k during the height of the California RE Bubble. The university houses medical school students there now. I would estimate the value of all of these buildings today at 500k.
So, mortgage/taxes/insurance $1,400. Rental income $3,400. Cash flow = $2,000 per month. Capital appreciation = $300k over fifteen years.
Someday the building will be paid off and California's open armed embrace of Illegal Immigrants GUARANTEES that rental housing supply will always be in high demand, driving C and D property rents higher and higher. Five years from now, it would not surprise me if our apartments are renting for $1,000 per month.
And this is in one of the poorest counties in California(San Bernardino). I can't imagine having the good fortune to own a 4plex in an expensive, coastal county...
"all real estate is local"