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All Forum Posts by: Bryce Sablotny

Bryce Sablotny has started 3 posts and replied 24 times.

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10
Originally posted by @Brad Jordan:

Again, it goes back to your goals. If you are looking for cash flow, 30 yr might be the best option. If you are looking to put that money directly to debt pay down of that specific property, I would consider the 15 or 20 year. Personally, I like the flexibility of a 30 year. When times tighten up, you aren’t forced to pay the higher payment. When times are good, you have the ability to increase your principal. There are trade off to both. 

In my market and my experience, smoking hot deals aren’t being found. They are being created. I think establishing what type of investor you want to be would help you. As a buy and hold investor, a good deal is different from a good deal on a flip and vice versa. This holds true when comparing all styles of real estate investing. 

A few months isn’t exactly a good indicator on future moves. If I decided to base my future style on  the beginning few months of my first rental, I would have never bought another one. The tenant I inherited was a NIGHTMARE. Instead, I jumped into my first property with the mindset that I want to be a buy and hold investor no matter the ups and downs. I took every obstacle as a learning experience and continued on and made sure I didn’t make the same mistakes when putting in a new tenant. You will learn a ton by just committing and doing a deal. Never stop listening and learning. There will be different hurdles with every deal but experience will make the hurdles seem smaller. I wish you the best and would love to hear when you find your first deal!

Brad Jordan 

A 30 yr makes sense for lowering your payment and reducing pressure if things go south. I need to figure what that 10 year gap between the two loans will cost me in interest. Do you find that to be a factor at all when deciding between the two loan periods? 

I do keep hearing on BP about some markets being tough and you have to "create a deal". I have been reading books and listening to BP for about 5-6 months now. I am constantly searching for leads and talking with my contractor and real estate agent. We are heavy on the search. My original plan was to flip houses but I do not trust the Illinois market right now with single family homes. I have changed gears into Multifamily and have been researching and gathering info for only 2 months. 

I am ready to commit and do a deal. Sometimes I feel like I want a deal so bad I get too attached. Now I know this is the opposite of how you want to approach the process. I have learned so much already in the search for properties and throughout negotiations on this particular property. This was my first full go attempt to purchase a property. I would be glad to inform you about my first deal (I'm sure you will be interest in the numbers). Thank you very much for your insight.

Bryce

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10
Originally posted by @John Leavelle:

Howdy @Bryce Sablotny

Your numbers are not adding up.

$175K Purchase price 

$35K Down payment 

$120K Loan Amount 

Where is the remaining $20K?

This is an investment property.  You normally need a 25% Down payment.  Be sure you can get a loan with only 20% Down.

Are you sure of the ARV? And Rehab estimate? Do you really want to pay $17K over the Value?

I am not sure of the ARV. Originally, we offered 157K on the property that was my homerun number. When the counter offer came back at 172.5K we refigured and thought 165K would be the highest we would go. Once we walked through the whole property and found out we would need to change the Hvac system and need a minimum rehab cost of 10-15K per unit we backed out. I want to get opinions on how to figure some of the expenses and if I was missing any crucial info. I will figure 25% down until I determine which bank we use.

Originally posted by @John Leavelle:

Howdy @Bryce Sablotny

First please provide comments in your post as to what you what help with.

My overall impression is this is not a good deal.  

1.34% COC ROI is terrible Return. You can do just as good with a CD.

$121.46 for Cash Flow is very risky.  That’s a little more than $20 per unit.  Plus you did not include Management in your analysis.  That would make this a negative cash flow deal.

 Than you John for the reply. My initial questions are about the variable expenses. Vacancy, repairs, cap ex, and management. I do not full understand how to determine the correct percentage to insert into these areas. These expenses have a major impact on the cash on cash return. I'm worried that I may be running myself out of a good deal if I make these percentages too high but also concerned about being too low and having a major issue arise. 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10
Originally posted by @Taylar Caraway:
Originally posted by @Bryce Sablotny:

Thank you Daniel and Aaron for the insightful responses. I have been analyzing properties like crazy and talking with investors and real estate agents about our market. Illinois has had 40K working age people leave the state. What do you think will happen to the values of single and multi family properties?  

 With P&I, taxes, utilities, insurance, rehab costs and roughly 30-35% (10 vacancy,10 management,10 capex and 2-5 for repairs) variable expenses. Are you guys finding a 10-12% cash on cash return? 

 
Well I can't say anything about the IL market because I honestly have no idea, but based on what you just said with people leaving the state it doesn't seem promising. Maybe there's a silver lining though... if people are trying to get out then there may be some motivated sellers out there. If you can hustle and find yourself one of these people then you could have a smokin deal. 

You'll find 10-12% cash on cash return eventually if you analyze enough properties... the deals are out there! Don't be afraid to manipulate the asking price in your analysis to make the deal work for YOU. Every property has a perfect number, you just have to find it.

I have put in 7 offers on different properties so far that have been "homerun" offers. I know the sweet spot is supposed to be 10-12% cash on cash return based on BP podcasts and talking with a few other investors. My biggest issue was the variable expenses. I was unsure of what would be accurate figures to punch in for vacancy, capex, repairs, and management. I will stay persistent. I'm working on an off market deal now. NOI is 35k. Purchase price is 360k on a 6 plex. Minimal rehab costs. Roof new 2014, all pretty new a/c units, only 1 furnace isn't newer. The cash on cash return is too low though. I'll keep on the search. I'll be attending my first real estate club meet up this week.

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10
Originally posted by @Brad Jordan:

Based solely on the numbers, not knowing location or exact condition of the property, It is tough to say yes or no. I would suggest staring by asking you a few questions. What is your goal/plan for the property? What is your exit strategy( as @erikbaumer mentioned, Arv is less than your cost)? Is a 20yr mortgage the best fit for your goals?  Is 60k an actual repair number from a contractor or an estimate you have from your walk through. 

 My goal and plan is to find a deal that is smokin hot, red hot and find out if being a landlord is something I want to do long term. Once I get through a few months I will have a good idea of what I like and don’t like. Depending on the performance of the property with rent, tenants, vacancy and additional rehab costs I will determine if I will keep the property long term or turn to sell. 1031 exchanges really intrigue me so my plan is to utilize them when it makes sense. 

I am unsure if a 20 or 30 year mortgage would fit my goal better. I have been looking into all the financing options I have available to me. Trying to understand the pros and cons of each. What would you suggest? 

Our family business does flooring, cabinets and paint so we have pretty accurate numbers down. The HVac needs replaced so that virtually took us out of the deal. 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10

I have in the past wondered the same thing. My reason for getting into multifamily real estate is for cash flow. I used the full asking price as my purchase price. We put in 2 offers which were much lower than the asking price before ever seeing the units. However, after walking through all 4 units we realized the rehab costs would be too high. This 4 plex needed a new hvac system and roughly 10K minimum in repairs per unit. The seller was not wanting to come down much from her 175K so we decided to walk from the deal. 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10

I can agree with the fact that all those other states have much more to offer, however, I think we will have a large supply of housing available for much less cost. Illinois is a tough market no doubt. We will have to see what happens over the next few years. Thank you all very much for the responses. My biggest concern coming in was the percentages to use for variable landlord expenses. I didn’t want to shoot too high or too low so I wanted to get some insight on the figures you all use. 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10

Illinois has high taxes and a history of corrupt politicians with no signs of it getting better. I tend to agree with the rust belt. I think we will see the single family home values lower over the next few years and multifamily properties either maintain or increase in value because they are high in demand. Does the possibility of medical marijuana (in 2020) give us hope at all for our economy to recoup? 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10

Thank you Daniel and Aaron for the insightful responses. I have been analyzing properties like crazy and talking with investors and real estate agents about our market. Illinois has had 40K working age people leave the state. What do you think will happen to the values of single and multi family properties?  

 With P&I, taxes, utilities, insurance, rehab costs and roughly 30-35% (10 vacancy,10 management,10 capex and 2-5 for repairs) variable expenses. Are you guys finding a 10-12% cash on cash return? 

Post: Help me analyze this deal

Bryce SablotnyPosted
  • Chatham, IL
  • Posts 24
  • Votes 10

Yes sir the property will be self managed. I struggle with the percentage to use for Capex and Vacancy. Those two numbers change the overall cash on cash return by quite a bit. Making a possibly good investment become a bad investment. I want to understand and be as accurate as possible. Electric water gas will be covered by the tenant. The HVac needs to be redone in the whole building. I am a new investor but wanting to fully understand every aspect of being a landlord and analyzing properties.