All Forum Posts by: Bryce R.

In United States constitutional law, a regulatory taking is a situation in which a government regulation limits the uses of private property to such a degree that the regulation effectively deprives the property owners of economically reasonable use or value of their property to such an extent that it deprives them of utility or value of that property, even though the regulation does not formally divest them of title to it. (Wikipedia)

Additionally the US Constitution prohibits lawmaking by anyone other then the legislative branch. CDC is an Executive Branch of government. Constitution prohibits the delegation of this authority to anyone other then the legislative branch but our courts have not upheld our Constitution. Not much of a surprise as courts think they can make law too!

0 Votes

Originally posted by @Celia Moore:

@Bryce R. I hope you and the latter crew are right! We will see what happens with precious metal appreciation.

Sorry I miss-typed. See my edit. My PM investments are up 5.5X YTD.

1 Vote

Have followed with interest a lot of the discussion between people who feel we are on the verge of a crash, and those who feel this time is different. I'm in the latter crew.

One of the biggest things I follow when the market tanks, is the expansion of the money supply and consequent appreciation of everything related to precious metals.

https://twitter.com/DiMartinoB...

1 Vote

I'm stacking gold and silver. When they are at their peak, real estate will be at its bottom. These are the only two asset classes I've followed for 19 years. They work inversely generally speaking, and each swing is worth 3-20x your money. Currently I'm completely outta real estate except for my primary residence, and have all my investments in precious metals and related assets.

4 Votes

Originally posted by @Tim Boehm:

I've been on the fence for the last 8 years, sitting on 3/4 of a million. I hope there will be some deals but I doubt it, right now I see inflation right around the corner. You can't drive through the street letting hundreds and thousands of $100 fly through the air for all to pick up without creating inflation.

The only inflation so far is in the stock market. When that comes down, it all comes down.

Can't have inflation without velocity.

0 Votes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...

bankruptcies picking up steam....

2 Votes

Originally posted by @Joseph Cacciapaglia:

@Thor Sveinbjoernsson how are we going to have a flood of foreclosures in 6 months, when the majority of borrowers were given the option to request two 180-day forbearance periods? The soonest we could actually have this flood would be 360 days from the point that began. Then you have to add the time it takes for all the typical required notices prior to foreclosing. If unemployment is still this high a year from now, then I agree we might see a wave of foreclosures. However, many states are pretty far along with their reopening, so that rate should fall to some degree.

Also, your analysis doesn't take into account homeowners' equity. One of the main issues in 2008 was that people were over leveraged. They didn't have any equity, so they couldn't afford to sell. This time around, borrowers have significantly more equity going into the recession. This means a much higher percent of owners will be able to sell their property to avoid foreclosure.

Where are you getting your statistics on homeowner equity? I don't buy that for a second, homeowner debt is at an all time high imho. Not to mention, that 90% of the "equity" is due to price appreciation; which can disappear overnight in a falling market.

0 Votes

Sorry I only read the first 20-25 posts. I've played the Real Estate vs Precious Metals swings for 20 years. What (imho) most of you seem to be missing, is that the real estate market usually doesn't react much until 12-24 months into a bear market. Residential homeowners are about the last ones to realize.

We're in the classic dead cat bounce right now. Look for a looooong slow decline (multiple years) once everyone pulls their head out of the fog in the next 6 months and realizes how many businesses have folded.

5 Votes

All Forum Posts by: Bryce R.

Bryce R. has started 0 posts and replied 8 times.

Post: Trump/CDC Halts evictions nationwide to the end of the year

Post: Effects of a Recession

Post: Effects of a Recession

Post: Is the market going to go KABOOM?

Post: You have 6 months to liquidate your assets

Post: You have 6 months to liquidate your assets

Post: You have 6 months to liquidate your assets

Post: If the Market is Crashing, Then Why Aren't You Selling?