Quote from @Leo R.:
@Scott Trench I may be mis-understanding, but I was wondering if you could clarify a couple things...
In 1), you say that we're nearing all-time real wage highs (adjusted for inflation), but in 6) you say that the real federal minimum wage is nearing historical lows ...Isn't that contradictory? How do you square the idea that we're at all time wage highs, yet the federal minimum wage is nearing historical lows? ...I suppose that theoretically, the median wage could be near an all time high while the minimum wage is near an all time low, but it seems contradictory...
Also, I'd be interested to hear how you reconcile the idea that we're at all time wage highs, yet (as others have pointed out), for the average American, it seems much more difficult to make ends meet compared to a generation or two ago... As was mentioned, a generation or two ago, Americans could afford to buy a nice house, have two cars, support multiple children, have minimal or no debt, and adequate reserves for a comfortable retirement--all with nothing more than a high school diploma...today, we have folks with advanced degrees, no kids, no house, tons of debt, who live paycheck to paycheck. ...this dynamic seems to support the idea that costs of living have far outpaced Americans' earnings over the last couple generations.... I'd be interested to hear your thoughts...
Thanks!
1) Great question!
Imagine that there were no minimum wage at all. In today's economy, how much would McDonald's be hiring entry level employees at? It's tempting to think "$1.00 an hour", but that would not be the case. I drive by a local McDonalds that is advertising $18 per hour for entry level positions.
That's because no one is willing to work for minimum wage. This is true in many places around the US. For the minimum wage to have any impact on what McDonald's pays it's workers, it would have to be $18.50 per hour.
Effectively, we don't really have a meaningful minimum wage right now - because there are so few people who are willing to work for $7.25 an hour, even entry level positions, like flipping burgers at McDonalds have to pay much, much more than that. Now, there are people who argue whether there should be a minimum wage or not, but the current economic climate appears to be a vote in favor of eliminating the minimum wage or keeping it at it's current level. Most who want a job are able to get one, and at least where I live and drive to, it appears, that they can do so at double the current Federal Minimum wage, easily.
I predict that one impact of this will be that a lot more high schoolers and teenagers are employed in coming years - as they are the ones who are likely to be hired at or near the minimum wage. This could be very good for our economy long-term.
So, with the current minimum wage is nearing an all time low - the effect is similar to not having a minimum wage at all. And we are able to see that the minimum wage, when it is very low or nonexistent, may be disconnected with median wages - they are going up, even as the minimum wage does not change.
2) Personally, I am a little skeptical of this claim that life was better a generation ago. That's how people feel, but the data doesn't seem to back that up. Here's a great study that in my opinion debunks the claim that the 1980s were better than today. It's not ALL better today, but I think that the data make an overwhelmingly strong case that it is much, much better to be alive and American in 2022 than it was in the 1980s across a broad range of important quantifiable items.
I think that it always seems like the old days were better. Houses are much bigger today. Cars much more reliable, get better gas mileage. We have things like the internet, personal computers, smartphones. Healthy food is easier to come by and more Americans are eating it. The same goods you bought in 1980, with the notable exceptions of tuition and healthcare, are cheaper today, adjusted for inflation and wages. Housing costs have essentially not changed - per the study I sent above. Relatively speaking, travel is much easier and more affordable (as evidenced that more people travel now).
I think that things are more unequal (although inequality is at the very beginning stages of starting to correct in this past 6 month period) today than they were a generation ago. Perhaps this is why so many people feel that the old days were better.
A great book on this topic is "Factfulness" - most people think that the world is getting worse and worse with each passing year and through the generations. The reverse is true. People are generally richer, living longer, there are fewer deaths for children, and there are fewer disasters. The media, however, is more centralized, and more efficient than ever at finding the problems in society, highlighting them, and doing so in a way that drives engagement. People click on disaster, so the news reports it.
Case in point, Violent crime has dropped by nearly 50% on a per capita basis over the last 35 years and it bounces around at this new, historical low, up and down slightly each year. It's hard to find a time when you have been safer as an American than over the past 5 years. Yet, if you get your news from mainstream media like Fox, CNN, the NY Times, or the WSJ, you'd think we are falling off a cliff! That gets headlines, but the real story is one of prosperity, improving quality of life, and falling crime rates.
No, this is not true for everyone. No this doesn't mean that we don't have our problems we have to fix. But, the story is that the economy continues to improve for the median American.