All Forum Posts by: Brian Foster

How high did the water get inside during Harvey? Right int he middle of the 100 yr flood plane 

Great flood tool for Harris County

http://www.harriscountyfemt.org/

In my limited (since 1990) history in Houston we have had the following greater than 100 year floods

1994 unnamed (?) flood, 2001 (TS Allison), 2016 (Tax Day flood), and now Harvey. And I might have missed one other...

As you can see there is no rhyme or reason to this 100 year or 500 year thing and I'm not an insurance guy so I don't know if that has any bearing on how these are named. 

With the tool above, and also FEMA has mapping tools (not as easy to read) you can see where your property is located.

BTW, flood damage was widespread but the vast majority of property did not flood. If you are risk adverse, then use the tools to stay out of the flood zones. And as one poster noted, the flood zone is a moving target due to development so it is wise and prudent to evaluate (look annually) to see if you property's status has changed.

@Eric Thomson I'm not a fan of buying in flood zones for obvious reasons. That said, if you can pick up a buy and hold in the 500 year flood zone and factor in flood ins then that would work. Your acquisition, rehab, and flood insurance need to all be factored into your return because it's not a question of if the property will flood again, but when the property will flood again. If you are insured for that, and happy with the return then I don't see why not. 

@Brian Ploszay with all due respect, you don't know the area or it's population. Houston has a long history of flooding and that has not slowed it's growth. We had one of the top 3 flooding events in the city's history in April 2016 (was not even a named storm) and that didn't slow growth or investment down. This event will not slow it down either. What is amazing is that people just rebuild every time. People continue to move here because of job growth and the economy. That will not stop or even be slowed by Harvey.

You are correct that raising these properties is not [economically] possible. It could be done, but it is very expensive. And as far as less sprawl? I believe you will see exactly the opposite with development planned all along the new Grand Parkway (TX 99).  And growth is fine as long as flooding is factored into the construction so that properties are built above flood zones and developments are engineered with high water in mind. 

This storm was larger with more rain than previous storms and I think you will see some very interesting law suits regarding letting water out of reservoirs in Houston (caused many homes to flood that never flooded before) and also Lake Conroe (exacerbated flooding along San Jacinto River). I'm very interested in to see what these law suits result in both in terms of damages to property owners as well as future policies when it floods (and you know it will) .

http://www.harriscountyfemt.org/

Nice tool you can use to see where a property sits in relation to 100yr & 500 yr flood zone. If you buy in a 100yr flood zone your lender will require flood ins. If you buy in a 500 yr flood zone I believe it is optional to have flood ins. with most lenders.

@Roy Oliphant so true, after >25 years here I am amazed at several things. The resiliency of the area and it's people. The laws, regulations, and assistance given to flood prone areas. How it all perpetuates itself. 

@Joshua Howaniec many lenders will assist and make concessions after a natural disaster like this. 

That said, Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is insanity,..... right? But homes here (and other parts of the country also) keep getting rebuilt in questionable areas (very high risk) and it never seems to end. I doubt it will be any different for this event. So much focus on helping the victims (needed) and then on  rebuilding and restoring the status quo. Texas culture abhors unnecessary regulation.  This will happen again, it's called Hurricane "season" for a reason. 

Case in point is an area near The Woodlands (Montgomery County) called River Plantations. Built very close to San Jacinto river. It has been the victim of every major (and some minor) flooding events since I've lived here. Many homes again flooded by Harvey. I'm betting they will be rebuilt. This is common throughout Houston Area and much of Coastal Bend TX.

Houston area will continue to grow (jobs, population, size) factor in housing costs that are >25% below the National Average, a very temperate climate, business friendly environment,  and it will continue to draw people and business from all over. Investors will continue to come here because opportunity continues to exist here.

Also, look at our history. Allison in 2001, Ike in 2008, even last year's tax day flood. These events are what galvanizes this area and it's people. Nietzsche wrote "That which does not kill me makes me stronger".  Nietzsche could have been a Texan. Pretty well sums up the culture of TX and Houston area. Unique area and population. Very diverse, very strong. 

This event would have destroyed a lot of areas, TX & Houston will recover from this and emerge stronger than before.

If you were to draw a triangle bordered by 288 and 45 and go south to 610 (3rd ward) I think this will put you in a better place. I also like that triangle extended to just south of 610. Often when I'm doing a property analysis I just pull up a map and calculate commute time to Medical Center. If it is within 15 minutes and an easy drive, that is a very good sign. This area has great access to 2 things/places I really like. Medical Center (jobs and growth) and Hobby airport (cheap available transportation). There are some rough streets and properties in the area I've outlined but I see a lot of focus from investors and I think it will be a gentrification play for a while. There are too many amenities and jobs there to be ignored. I don't see the same thing in the 5th ward.  

Love multifamily for so many reasons and very hard to find in Houston area in areas that I feel really comfortable owning. That is a great area for development and it is being made even better with growth from new Grand Parkway (TX99). 

My obvious bias is with Houston. Low cost of entry, critical mass (4th largest metroplex), strong economic & population growth. If we do get a correction (like 2008) I think Houston is better suited to withstand it than any other market.