All Forum Posts by: Brett Jurgens

@Bradley Buxton definitely things being done to make homes more sustainable re: natural disasters. Code in FL, for example, has increased hurricane wind strength from 145mph to 175mph in some areas I know about.

And agree, it's all "insurance" weather a policy or not. 

And actually being able to insure, and properly insure, in some of these areas is an entirely separate can of worms!

Got it and makes sense. I live in Denver and have one here and one in the mountains. Thinking about other markets too but don't know much about opportunities outside of CO. 

@Mike H. I've listed the criteria from the analysis I used from Policygenious (and here's the full article:

https://www.policygenius.com/homeowners-insurance/best-and-w...)

Drought is the biggest concern for AZ, along with high heat. Arizona's water supply from the Colorado river is being depleted faster than it can be replenished. Here a bit more on that: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/arizonas-water-crisis-colo...

• Drought: The likelihood of negative economic impacts as a result of drought, the number of people and fresh water sources exposed, and the state's ability to recover or adapt to a future with drought
  
• Extreme heat: Projected number of dangerously hot days by 2050 and the percentage of people vulnerable to dangerously high temperatures
  
• Wildfires: Fraction of housing units directly or indirectly exposed to wildfire, as well as wildfire likelihood and home susceptibility
  
• Flooding: Percentage of people living in 100 and 500-year floodplains, projected 30-year increase in number of properties with flood risk, and the percentage of the population living in a 100-year coastal floodplain
  
• Climate change preparedness: How well each state is responding to current and future climate change threats

@Laura Nelson Interesting, where are you investing? I'm seeing some large institutional SFR/BTR investors looking in very different markets too.

There are a lot of rebates and tax credits out there for solar and energy efficiency upgrades. I’m not about to try covering them all. But there are two important ones that every homeowner and rental investor should know about, especially if they’re thinking about installing solar.

Homeowners can receive a tax credit in the amount of 30% of the cost of solar. If you buy a $15,000 system, you get a $4,500 tax credit. Pretty sweet!

But, if your home or rental is in a low-income area you can get a 10% bonus. Further, if your home is in an energy community, you can get an additional 10%.

All this could add up to a 50% tax credit.

Now, that $15,000 system will only net out to be $7,500…and that’s before additional state/utility company rebates and accelerated depreciation (if you’re putting solar on a rental property).

The DOE has two tools that have made it very easy to determine whether your property is in one or both of these zones:

Low Income Community:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/12227d891a4d471497ac13f60fffd822/page/Page/

Energy Zone:
https://arcgis.netl.doe.gov/portal/apps/experiencebuilder/experience/?id=a2ce47d4721a477a8701bd0e08495e1d

A sign of the times. Zillow is adding climate risk scores powered by First Street for every for-sale listing on its platform.

Another Zillow survey published in September 2023 found that 83% of home shoppers considered climate risks when looking at homes – but far too many are ignoring the warnings.

The 2023 US Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration data shows Florida and Texas ranked #1 and #2 for new move-ins with 1.25m people migrating to those two states combined.

Now let’s pair this with climate risk...

Policygenius ranked the 48 contiguous states for climate risk based on drought, extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, and climate change preparedness.

Guess which state has the highest climate risk? Florida. And Texas is 4th worst.

Here are the top 10 states where people moved in 2023 along with their climate risk ranking. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are unfortunately at very high risk as well.

I think we’ll see large swaths of climate refugees moving to the midwest, upper midwest and mountain west. This is where land and home values will increase the most, and where they’re currently less expensive in many cases. Development will start to happen at higher rates as more people move. Jobs will be most in demand as the populations in these states grow.

What does this mean for the future of homeownership, rental property investing, home values, insurance, and migration?

How long will this take to happen?

How do you feel about it personally especially if you’ve migrated to / from a risky state in the last 2-3 years?

Climate rankings for all 48 states from Policygenius**:
https://infogram.com/best-and-worst-states-for-climate-change-1hd12yx3orgyx6k

Census Bureau migration data*:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

Zillow press release on adding climate data:
https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-09-26-Zillow-introduces-First-Streets-comprehensive-climate-risk-data-on-for-sale-listings-across-the-US

@Don Konipol @Chris Seveney Appreciate the feedback and I wasn't trying to slip this by. Noted for future posts, though again my intent was to help investors understand that making these upgrades can be incredibly beneficial and isn't something most people are looking at. 

@Don Konipol Elevation, Palmetto and a couple of others do this for SFR owners. This isn't a biased post. It's backed by data from these companies and the rental I have in Denver that I'm doing this on now. I'm trying to help other people understand that making their rentals sustainable could actually enhance their returns quite a bit, and help the planet. If I'm crossing a line here I'll definitely stop.

 @Chris Seveney Doesn't make sense on every home in every market. Very dependent on each home's usage profile (as you mentioned) along with heating/cooling equipment type, utility rates and and solar net metering schemas.

@Don Konipol not out of the air, based on my own rental and a few hundred others we've done at Net Energy in 8 states.