All Forum Posts by: Brendan Ashworth

@Eric Stafford I just looked at Boston because I lived there for college and they have the data on their Zoning Board of Appeals available online: https://www.boston.gov/departm...

I ended up writing some Python scripts to run through the permits and convert a long-form description into a summarized bullet points. The zoning data looks like this:

"Scope work consists reconfiguring existing parking lot to create new delineated spaces landscape updates as shown on proposed certified plot plan architectural site drawings"

This was probably the most complex part of the analysis so I'd love to share or help you through that process if you're interested.

@Lien Vuong sure, I think originally it was removed because it is an external link. The analysis is here: https://normalizingconstant.co....

Hey BP— I downloaded eight years worth of zoning variance appeals in Boston (you need a variance to break the zoning code). I found it really cool so I wanted to share a summary of my analysis.

1. Denial rates vary dramatically by the type of appeal. 10% of appeals that mention renovating are rejected, while 17% of demolition+new construction is rejected. Changing occupancy beyond zoning allowances and combining lots falls in the middle. (You can explore the data at the link below)

2. On average you'll wait five months before getting an answer to your appeal. If it gets deferred, you should expect at least a year wait.

3. The longer you wait, the more likely you'll get denied. Appeals that get answered in under 100 days only get denied 11% of the time (1/3 of average). 100-200 days is twice that at a 22% denial rate. 200-300 days is 31%.

I've published the data analysis if you want to filter for permit appeals in other categories (building additions, combining lots, new buildings, etc).

It seems to me like it's a huge pain to go through the variance process. What are your tips and tricks for getting around it? What kind of advice can you give to others who see opportunity through variances?

@Ryan Baker do you have an idea as to your target neighborhood? Finding a low cost area in a higher wealth city can be a good region to flip in. If you'd like to explore different areas, would love to help you, PM me.

Thanks, as long as its in LA county, I can run it — zip codes are a good size to look at.

Hey BP LA,

I've been looking at where cap rates have been moving for my area (a ~2mi circle near Hollywood) and ended up building a tool to pull sales in my area and compare them to the average rents at the time. I thought it ended up looking really nice, so I wanted to share it with BP! I

Let me know what you think!

Price totally depends on the market and where the cap rates are at. Appreciation can drive cap rates down to the ground. Try moving around your LTV and check with multiple lenders to see if you can drive your cashflow up; if the property spent 48 hours on the market, comps probably support it which means the returns are there, you just need to make the numbers work. If multifamily properties are trading a 5 caps in NC, then $500k isn't unreasonable.

I have 11 properties in a couple neighborhoods (different cap rates, range from 4.8% to 6.1%) I’m trying to look at but I want to be sure I’m comparing them in the right way so that I can get a good return.. how do you guys compare properties? What’s the best way? easiest way? What are some common mistakes to avoid when comparing?

Assuming this is a class B or C property (can't imagine a property in a nice area would cashflow like that), I'd hold onto it for the cashflow so long as the neighborhood wasn't depreciating or there was a net population outflow. That being said the big factor for the calculation is the equity in the property.. the more % equity you have, the less leveraged you can be on that $120k profit, reducing your IRR.

Is a mom and pop multifamily investor more likely to sell their off-market property if a buyer is already in place? Does an offer over the phone make them more likely to sign on the dotted line?