@Brant Schumaker I am also from a state with smaller population. In my city we recently had a large hot spot develop. It is a meat packing plant with 500 of 3500 employees testing positive. They worked side by side in tight quarters and many were coming to work sick for weeks. It is no mystery how the outbreak occurred at the plant. They shut down the plant and the CDC was there yesterday evaluating best practices. They are doing full contact tracing and keeping anyone affected at home.
In my state, although we don't have full shut down, we have had recommended practice to shelter at home for over a month. We have also limited the number of people in businesses. So although it isn't an official shut down, schools are closed, all events shut down, all restaurant dining areas are shut, the mall is shut and many businesses have voluntarily shut down. The ones that are open have taken major steps to protect customers and employees.
The governor refuses to do a full state shut down, which would include mandating any non-essential businesses to close. The governor seems to believe it is not constitutional, but more importantly, most have already shut or have very limited operations of 50% or less. It will hurt the remaining businesses that may be borderline "essential".
The local mayor in my city is determined to close down the city. He seems freaked out by the hot spot and seems to believe we are headed for a disaster. Currently we have maybe 20 people in the hospital and 6 deaths in the entire state. I realize how exponential growth of a virus can go from "not bad" to "holy cow" in just a couple weeks.
The mayor is citing increase in infections as the reason that we are in trouble, but the main reason numbers have gone up so fast is that they tested every employee at the meat packing plant. In general testing has been slow or they won't even test people with symptoms. Since we have had distancing efforts in place for well over a month, it seems that the hot spot alone should not be reason for alarm. Of course they need to deal with the hot spot. They have shut down the meat packing plant, they are testing everyone and contact tracing. Considering we are a less densely populated area and everything else I mentioned, what would the scientist in you suggest? I realize you don't have the data, but just curious what questions you would be asking? At what point does the incremental gain of going further with shut down, become a matter of diminishing returns?