Hello @Lei Li,
You will buy a specific property in a specific city within a state. So, I recommend focusing on the city level. As there are too many cities to evaluate, I recommend selecting a city based on your financial goals. In this case, I will assume your goal is financial freedom.
Financial freedom is more than just replacing your current income; it's about maintaining your current lifestyle for life. To have lifelong financial freedom, you need a passive income that meets three requirements:
- Rents outpace the cost of living: Inflation consistently erodes the purchasing power of a fixed amount of money. For instance, if the inflation rate is 5%, what you can buy today for $100 will cost $155 in 10 years. If rents fail to pace with the cost of living, your financial independence will be short-lived.
- Income persistence: Your rental income will last a long time, which means that you will not outlive your income.
- Income reliability: You can count on receiving the rental income every month, even when the economy is doing badly.
Rents Outpace the Cost of Living
In real estate, prices and rents are determined by the imbalance between the number of buyers and sellers. When there are more buyers than sellers, prices and rents increase. If there are significantly more buyers than sellers, prices and rents will rise quickly enough to keep pace with the cost of living. Rapid rent and price growth only occurs when there is sustained and significant population growth. Which is our first city requirement.
✅ Significant and sustained population growth.
Income Persistence
Lifelong financial freedom depends on the future economic growth of the city where you invest. The best indicator of a growing economy is job creation. What are the conditions that attract companies to establish new facilities in a city?
✅ Low operating costs
✅ Pro-business city / state regulatory environment
✅ Low crime rate
✅ No rent control of any kind
✅ Sufficient population to have economic stability, major highways, and a major airport.
✅ Low risk of a natural disaster
Income Reliability
The reliability of your income depends on the tenant who occupies your property and their job. I will discuss income reliability in another post.
City Selection Requirements
Below are the location requirements we previously determined. If a city does not meet all requirements, eliminate that from further consideration.
✅ Significant and sustained population growth.
Sustained, significant, population growth. Never invest in any location with a static or declining population Wikipedia
✅ Low operating costs
It's not about how much you gross; it's about how much you net. When selecting an investment city, it's important to take into consideration all major recurring costs. The largest operating costs for investors are property taxes and insurance. Below is a comparison of property tax and insurance costs for three states that do not have a personal state income tax. Sources: Insurance - ValuePenguin, State Property Tax Rates - Rocket Mortgage.
To illustrate the impact of taxes and insurance on net rent, I compared the cost of property taxes and insurance on a $400,000 property in the three states. (Remember that these are state averages, and individual cities may impose additional taxes.)
What does the difference in overhead costs mean to you as an investor?
- To compensate for Texas' higher operating costs, a property in Texas must generate $5,700 ($9,194 - $3,494) more in cash flow annually than a property in Nevada.
- To compensate for Florida's higher operating costs, a property in Florida must generate $2,123 ($5,617 - $3,494) more in cash flow annually than a property in Nevada.
✅ Pro-business city / state regulatory environment
A good indicator is the State Business Tax Climate Index. High state business taxes are a strong indicator of an anti-business environment.
✅ Low crime rate
Never invest in any city on Neighborhood Scout’s 100 most dangerous cities list.
✅ No rent control of any kind
The fastest way is a google search such as, “Is there rent control in Las Vegas Nevada?”
✅ Sufficient population
Only invest in cities with a metro population greater than 1M. Small towns may rely too much on a single company or market segment. Wikipedia
✅ Low risk of a natural disaster
Natural disasters like tornadoes can destroy entire communities. The devastated community may take years to recover, or it may never fully recover. When someone loses their residence or job in a disaster, they immediately move to a location where they can live and work today. So, even if your insurance company rebuilds your property, there may not be anyone to rent it. However, you will still be responsible for paying the mortgage, taxes, maintenance, and insurance. The cost of homeowners insurance is reflective of the risk of a major natural disaster. Therefore, do not invest in any location with high homeowners insurance rates. Insurance - ValuePenguin
In Summary
Start with all US cities with a metro population >1M (Wikipedia). Then, I would vet each city against all the other listed requirements. Eliminate any city that fails any metric.
I would add one more requirement: an experienced local investment team.
Local Investment Team
Everything you learn from podcasts, books, seminars, and websites is general knowledge. But you will buy a specific property, in a specific location, subject to local rules and regulations. The only source for the local knowledge you need is an investment team.
Working with an investment team usually does not cost more than working with any other realtor. For instance, we have delivered more than 480 properties and only charged our clients fees for four or five properties, which was due to exceptional circumstances. In all other cases, the fees were paid by the listing agent of the seller, not by our client.
Also, by working with an investment team, you receive a master class on real estate investing at no cost to you.