I've bought 5 "turnkey" rehabed properties in 3 states (texas, Indiana, Tennesee) from three different providers in a span of 1 year.
Here are the things I learned:
#1 WORD OF MOUTH - buy from providers based on word of mouth and based on the proven experience of other buyers who have had positive experiences with that turnkey provider.
So many things can go wrong with any property. You have to trust the provider - not just trust the numbers or the property itself. REAL estate is a PEOPLE business more than a property business. I would rather buy a property from a proven person with lower cash flow than from a unknown provider (higher risk) with higher cash flow numbers.
#2 Home inspection is key. "turnkey providers" should address every single problem item found on the home inspection- from minor issues to major ones (roof, AC, water heater, etc..).
IF they balk, then RUN away! If they fix them all, you still run the risk of return problems in some cases. You have to decipher: is this a good deal with problems that can be fixed or is it a "fake good deal" with problems that will haunt me in the years to come?
Here is one example. My very first deal, the home had many issues on the home inspection. the turnkey provider "fixed" everything on the list except the roof. He believed the roof had about 5 years life in it. We decided to split the cost 50/50. (I got a $2000 credit). Being a new investor, I did not have the wherewithal or knowhow to completely REPLACE the roof at the time of purchase and just roll it into the loan. Even after everything was fixed, this property had many minor issues during the 1st year with maintenance cost being around 10-15% of rent! (too high IMHO) Then I had the great misfortune of replacing the roof and AC unit in the same month about 1.5 years after purchase in the tune of $5200!
That being said, my 2 other properties from the same Texas turnkey provider worked out well and 8 properties a friend bought were also positive experiences with great cash flow.
#3 PROPERTY MANAGEMENT: Evaluation of the Turnkey provider also requires you to evaluate the property management which is just as important as the rehabbed property itself. Two words- vacancy and maintenance is a huge part of buy/hold strategy -and property management is a vital part of that strategy.
My take home message is this. Even with the highly recommended "turnkey providers" you are going to run into problem properties and maintenance issues. Therefore, doing due diligence on providers (getting several references at a minimum) and also choosing providers who have a positive track record with friends/colleagues you know is a better way to go. (with the caveat that even with these people you may run into issues).
If I had any experience, I may have walked away from my first deal. But I'm ok with my first deal since real estate is multifactorial and forgiving (with time) in many ways.
#4 DON'T QUIT: The most important rule in real estate investing is don't quit, keep trying, keep buying the right properties from good people and avoid bad ones!