Originally posted by @Account Closed:
My dad made a significant amount of money buying and developing gas stations in the 90's. he's held all of them since, collecting rent checks each month, all are on a NNN lease.
He's wanting to buy more now and I personally don't think it's a great investment anymore, seeing as we're trending towards electric vehicles as more time goes on.
While we'll still need gas for several more years, is it a good idea to invest in NNN gas stations if electric cars become more prominent as the years go on? Is my perspective on this matter wrong?
Note: We live in California and gas stations are selling at a premium right now, prices are CRAZY!!
One of the questions, is they might or might not be a good investment, but maybe the question should be are they a good investment for your dad?
It sounds as though he isn't diversified in his real estate holdings and is tied to the health of one niche of the industry (retail gasoline stations).
Have you run different scenarios? IE what happens if every single one of these tenants is having issues financially with regard to gasoline sales. Maybe California has made it so its impossible to make money in the business. IF none of the tenants renew, what is plan B? Can the sites be repositioned to a different industry? if so I would be less concerned about the long term viability of gas.
It might be a case where gas stations are a great investment but not really a good investment for your dad based on his age, concentration of risk with his investment portfolio and the number of current leases coming due in the next 5 years.
Personally I think we will see a move to electric, but I also think we are on the verge of self driving vehicles. And I think when that happens people will move to a sharing model, a self driving Uber. you use your app a car comes and picks you up, and drops you off at your destination.
I could see this turning into a multi modal scenario, a small car picks you up at your door, and drops you off at a bus or train depot where you are moved at a high speed to a city downtown etc. And I think it happens sooner than people expect.
Regardless, I think I would be reluctant to double down on gas stations unless I had a potential exit strategy not connected to transportation. IE maybe Starbucks would rent them, or whatever.
I don't want to be in the position of needing an industry to fight off a disruptive technology, especially in California where the will of the people leans heavily against any form of fossil fuel.