All Forum Posts by: Ari Rubenstein

If you like cash flow, military tows do well. They always have boots on ground and never shut down 

You need to also understand the context of a specific economy.

What you need to research is the actual gross income : gross rent a for particular city and buying powera  of particular city. Don't worry too much about the population decreasing. THe guy that tell you population decreasing is bad is only doing copy-paste statistical analysis....Here's some of my statistics:

- Santa Clara county in bay area has decreasing population from 2017 but home price appreciation is the fastest in America.
- Why ? because buying power increases as tech economy growing
- This create situation where middle class status is rising, 300k per family income is still very average middle class income hence they can afford 1 million house easily.
- Some of the population moves to Houston,texas, and this gives price pressure on Houston
- however, the local economy in houston not yet able to match the new tech income although the local home price is also accelarating, as the results, the "relative" income to house price ratio is actually higher in Santa Clara than Houston. Houston is relatively more expensive than Santa Clara. 

- Now comes recession. Look who has more inventory in the market. Houston has grown more inventory while Santa Clara is still relatively flat: the change of price going down is higher in Houston compare to Santa Clara.

So context and understanding local economy is very important when analyzing stats. 

Florida is different animal hahaha.....It's very different for every city/sub-region,it's famous for the most expensive city compare to the local income.

As mentioned above you need to look neighborhoods of city specific. For example chicago overall has a decline due to far south/west sides and downtown areas but northside/certain south side areas like mckinley park/bridgeport/pilsen are growing like crazy with very strong demand and many gentrifing areas seeing double digit rent growth. 

The only time I would run if a city was population declining would be a small city under 100k population. Some of these areas can turn to nearly ghost towns when a navy base closes or their once strong industrial plant closes. 

@Ari Rubenstein Ari I am currently in the same market attempting to break ground..I was mostly interested in Youngstown and Sebring cause prices were very attractive and property are on better shape and are also up to 50 years newer than Cleveland's on same price rabge range...I ll be inspecting..a few properties next weekend. When it comes to multi-family proprietors there are still a few dozen of then for reasonable prizes..I seen though multiple investors selling theirs at the same time by the 10's or dozens as well even in the high rental demand aresd ( AKA : class C neighborhoods)

I am just going to dip my toes cause not sure of safe to swim ..my risk.appetite; however is guiding me..I hope I can be of any service while i.am there

@Ari Rubenstein I would also caution you to not look at a state in general terms. There are many MSA's (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) within a state that have key indicators for growth or compression. I release a quarterly newsletter called the BBC Dispatch, you can signup for it on my website which may give you some guidance on where the markets are heading and where they currently stand. There are good cash-flowing locations within FL though for sure. The Panhandle, Westend, near Pensacola, Navarre, and Fort Walton Beach, are excellent for long-term rentals due to their proximity to two major Airforce bases and the continual overturn of military families. Lakeland FL, smack dab between Orlando, and Tampa, is another stellar spot for buying long-term rentals. Short-term rentals thrive in areas such as Destin, Santa Rosa, and Pensacola, due to their pristine beaches and how near they are for wealthy C-Suite executives living in and around Mobile, Birmingham, AL, as well Atlanta GA. You will find solid short-term rental locations along most of the shores of FL, but county and municipal laws will affect the STR space and its legality in the respective area. If you would like to know more about the major MSA's throughout FL and what data points I track when choosing where to lend and who to partner with, you can signup via our BBC Dispatch form on my website. Best wishes and much success!

dude, that's given, if population already increased --> property rise --> cap rate compression.

Your job is to identify the next population growth city if you wanna find cash flow :-)

There are more places than just Cleveland to look to, but I have to say that Cleveland is a good one. Prices are up, so it's not as easy to find on market deals, but there are still some. However, the off market deals are still there. Mostly in C or below areas, but not all. I have a few clients who look for B area duplexes, quadplexes, or SFRs and we find them. I'd say if you're not 100% comfortable here, do what you've been doing and make connections in the city, ask questions and really find out if it's right for you.

Very well said as always. People tend to forget that a flagship big name city is only part of the equation and that there are other surrounding cities within a county or metro area that can be the inverse of the county seat.

For example, Phoenix has grown by roughly 20% since 2010 while Gilbert, a city/suburb just outside Phoenix has grown by about 27%. I'm willing to bet Goodyear and Buckeye are places 90% of America has never heard of, but both are ranked in the top 10 of fastest growing cities in the US. 

@Joe Villeneuve I tried paying my mortgage with a percentage last month but the funny thing about that is they only accepted dollars in their online portal lol.

Welcome to Biggerpockets!

Keep researching markets. There are still many that are growing in population, bright futures, purchase prices that are reasonable, and you can cash flow.