@Jaysen Medhurst @Lauren Speidel @Dave Foster @Joseph Cacciapaglia
Thanks for all your input / suggestions. A couple reactions / thoughts:
- When mentioning "forced appreciation" on larger multifamilies, I assume this is through rehab / renovation. Why is this more doable on larger properties rather than small? In my experience, it's fairly common to find value-add triplexes and quadplexes.
- I wasn't aware of agency debt for larger properties. I'll look into it. Would this be through ordinary mortgage brokers?
-@Dave Foster regarding 1031 strategies, your last suggestion is spot on. If I go the route of pursuing 4 separate properties, I would try to close just 2 properties within the 180-day window. Then I'd refi and redeploy into 1-2 additional properties. Hopefully, this would also allow me to buy the next 2 properties at more favorable cap rates. The CA multifamily market is on the verge of softening with recent (and upcoming) rent control legislation coming into effect, leading many investors to sell / move their capital out of state. I particularly like this option because I'm somewhat afraid to deploy the full amount at 4% cap rates (going price in LA). If there's just 100-200 bps of cap rate expansion, that will negate all appreciation from 3-5% rent increases. My only concerns here are (A) qualifying for 4 separate resi loans and (B) whether I can get a 70-75% LTV on a cash-out refi for the property that I purchased all cash, since lenders are more aggressive on purchases than refis.
- Last question - would a portfolio loan make sense to fund the purchase transactions (especially if they are spaced out over time)? It's a good idea that I hadn't considered, but it seems it would be more appropriate as a refinancing option after I have all 4 properties under title. Am I missing something?
Net-net, it sounds like both options have their pros and cons. I have some work to do with regard to looking into financing options and also evaluating true NOIs for properties listed in my market. Thanks for all the constructive feedback.
Also, in case anyone's curious, I ran some math on both scenarios, using hypothetical purchase metrics, NOIs, and appreciation. Projections are projections (and often wrong), but the fourplex strategy yields approximately $500k more value over 10 years (+$800k asset value, -300k less cash flow). But, of course, it all depends on what assumptions you use.