All Forum Posts by: Andrew Fielder

Sounds like a good time. Won't be in town to make this one. Whens the next one?

Demo won't be much. Some construction companies have a rate per sqft on their websites. Maybe just try googling it. Why not just call a construction company to get a quote. They will usually give you a rate per sqft based on a low/medium/high quality build.

Good luck.

There's some good info available from the major commercial real estate companies that can help give you an idea where we are in the current real estate cycle. Just remember than the stronger markets are better protected against a market correction ie. San Francisco will not go down by as much in terms of capital value (%) than lets say Detroit. 

See below what CBRE thinks. 

Below is a very good visual on how the real estate cycle works. I believe we are almost at the end of the current expansion phase of the current cycle.

This is consistent with what the major agencies are predicting. Looking at the below graph on cap rates ie historical and forecast, you can see that Cap rates are expected to reach a bottom around Q4 2017/Q1 2018 and then are expected to go up from there. 

@Mark Harris Well educated investors and institutions certainly are well aware of where the current property cycle is at. You need to be aware of that too. There's a podcast where a guy was flipping and lost everything during the GFC. The same thing can happen to anyone. If you're investing in a high demand market ie SF/LA/SD then you're more protected than let's say the mid west. The catch is that you won't be earning cash flow.

Commercial Real Estate Investing by Dolf De Roos

Best commercial real estate investing book I've read

It depends on where you want to get financing from. What Josh is suggesting takes a lot of work and there are plenty of forum posts and blogs on how you can do that. Don't just assume that in the current market there are going to be a ton of people who are 'motivated to sell'.  If you're prepared to put in the work it can definitely pay off.

If you're just looking to buy a house with traditional financing from a lender, credit scores matters.

The basic things a lender/underwriter for residential is looking for is:

1) Steady W-2 Income (the bigger the better)

2) A low debt to income ratio (Current monthly debt payments/current monthly gross income)

3) Credit Score/Credit worthiness (Although FHA/Home Ready have lower requirements on credit scores)

4) Property value (Appraised value vs. purchase price)

I purchased my first condo in 2013 using an FHA mortgage. At the time I didn't have much credit history etc. so my credit score was only 600 I think. Since then I've opened a few credit cards and made on time payments so my credit score is above 700.

Welcome @Katriel C. Sarfati sounds like you have a lot to offer to BP in return as well.

Are you still active in the SoCal market? Interested to hear what projects you may have been working on recently.

@Nick Coonis nice! Really coming along.

There's definitely some signs we're reaching a peak in the property cycle. Institutional investors are starting to factor in this risk with their offers. While I can't speak for every market I think you'll find when the data comes out this year that it will still be a solid year for real estate but not as strong as 2014 and 2015. With commercial real estate investors they can protect themselves much better as they sign long term leases that could potentially get them through a property cycle. With residential investments you have greater leasing risk as most leases are 12 months so rents can go down. Capital appreciation is what makes you money in residential markets like LA, whether that's long term with little to no cash flow or through flipping.