Hello James.
Ultimately, I believe the answer lies in your risk tolerance and the amount of your reserves.
I will start with some questions that you may want to ponder about.
1. In the summary you are saying that, "my solar system is producing 94% of the year 1 production; the system will produce 9,851 kwh/yr" and in the Details you are saying, "Annual electric usage: 12,000 kwh/yr". How are you going to bridge the gap between production and the usage requirement and whats the cost of both systems (if needed?) and how is it going to affect your depreciation and/or credit schedule?
2. While the solar warranty is for 25 years, the effectiveness of the solar will start diminishing over time. If you are getting 100% output today, will you get 100% output in 15 years? So, will your numbers work the same? The same is for the shingle roof. Most likely you will have to perform maintenance, but what is the comparison in terms of the initial cost and the following maintenance?
3. When the solar needs to be replaced, is it going to cost extra to remove the panels and will you need new setup to install the next set? You don't know this now, but most likely it will cost extra. While with the regular roof you just put another layer and you are good to go. In Western NY I can easily put 3 layers on. How costly and how challenging is the new set up with the solar?
4. In the situation of the strong storm/natural disaster/another Sandy and the solar panels getting damaged, how fast and how easily can the panels be replaced? During the hurricane Sandy electricity by the Manhattan beach in Brooklyn (right by the ocean) was restored in 7 days (I believe its one of the longest repairs in Brooklyn. My friends in Bayshore and Halstead and Ronkonkoma got their electric back in 2-3 days), how long will it take to replace the panels if they are damaged? Is there a similar ratio of roofer to roofs as the solar installers to solar roofs? What I mean is, in case of another Sandy/storm, how easy is it to find a solar installer to replace the damage? There are hundreds of roofers out there- its the same concept of installing the architectural shingle in CT or MA or NJ or NY. If the company in NY is not available, there will be one in NJ or other states. While your particular solar system might require particular company in order not to void the warranty. What if there are only 10 installers and you are customer #300? How long is your wait? You are "green" conscious, so you realize with the current damage to climate, another mini Sandy is just around the corner.
On the other hand, if the panels survived the natural disaster, your property can be the only property on the block to have the electric.
5. Do you know that there are 50 years architectural shingles? While they may start loosing effectiveness after 40 years and you may need to replace a few tabs here and there, the cost of labor to replace them is pretty low, especially if you buy a square or two extra on the onset.
6. Are you including the vacancy factor when you are in between tenants? Or, what if the tenant is not paying rent and your electric bill? In Suffolk county it takes months to evict somebody, can you cover the cost of the solar mortgage?
7. Will the cost of the solar affect your DTI ratio and prevent you from purchasing another property where you can collect rent?
If you strictly think of the numbers, it seems like an interesting opportunity. However, you don't live in the world of only numbers. You have natural disasters and storms that cause damage, you have Covid and tenants who do not pay rent and you have banks that look at DTI ratios. These are real questions that you need to think about.
I just noticed that you updated your initial post. Are you a Tesla sales rep and this whole thing was a promotional gimmick or you do not have any sponsorship with Tesla?