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All Forum Posts by: Alex V.

Alex V. has started 14 posts and replied 113 times.

Post: Mortgage rates skyrocketing !

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91
Originally posted by @Russell Brazil:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Russell Brazil:
Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:
Originally posted by @Russell Brazil:

Owner occupant rate was 4.75% this past week, so yes those rates are in line. Skyrocketing isna bit of hyperbole with rates still on the very low end historically. In the mid 2000s when the owner occupant rated dipped to 6% most of us felt that was the lowest they would ever go in our lives.

 Hmm.. thats interesting. You thought rates would never go below 6%. Surely they have in the past?

I am a buyer at 6% or below. Above that, seems a tad risky.

 Freddie Mac has only tracked rates since 1971, and they are our best source. The first time they tracked a below 6% was in January 2003. They bounced around from 5.5% to 6.5% for a couple years before rising well above 6% in 2005...then it took the housing collapse and operation spin from the fed to push them back below 6% at then end of 2008 where they continued their downward trend to the low 3's.

Even where they are today is historically low. While you may think there is risk in a 6% rate, we will eventually get back to a normalized interest rate enviorment and you will yearn for rates that low in the future.

we just had this conversation with our banker yesterday.. of course those who entered the market in the last 10 years only know HYPER low rates so it seems like rates are high.. those of us who have been doing it for decades and like me in 77 ish bought my first owner occ the rate was 9% and I felt lucky to get it.. rates in the mid 80s went north of 15%..

6 to 8% is basically historic norms for the last 25 years anyway.

and yes if your metric of a good deal is positive cash flow with ONLY 20% down then load up before its gone.. most west coast markets this even cash flow is more like 30 to 50% down so that is the norm.. its not norm to positive cash flow with only 20 to 25% down. 

 When I was on the podcast, I told people they need to load up on as much mortgage debt as they can at these low rates, and I still stand by that idea.  Loading up on debt at 3 to 6% interest is going to make a lot of people rich in the long run. Even better if they do that in DC, San Fran, Boston, NYC, Etc. 

This. We are doing the same thing with my clients right now. You have to take a long, portfolio based perspective to financing rentals right now. When you think about mortgages like a combination of a loan and a ton of embedded interest rate options, trading down the yield curve in an historically all time low, flat, and rising interest rate curve is completely irrational. For every dollar of mortgage you borrow, you get a $1 american call option. When you go from a 30 to a 15 year mortgage, you are basically selling 15 years worth of options. The spreads to make that an economically rational decision haven't been there for a long time. When you start adding the fact that rates continue to rise, the most sensible thing to do is to take as long of debt out as you can now. In 5 years, if you are borrowing at 7-8% you will be happy to dedicate the extra cash flow to paying down newer mortgages instead of having it trapped in a 15 year because it saved 50bps. If in 5 years, rates are lower, you can always refi.

Post: Property Managers in Newark NJ

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

@Vaughn Smith thank you just shot you a reply

@Dave Cali 3s and 4s

Post: Property Managers in Newark NJ

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

My partner and I are starting to offer on residential multi-families in Newark, NJ. Does anyone here have a recommendation for a property manager that would handle properties in Newark? 

Post: Looking For 203k Contractor

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

@Vincent Priore might know a thing or two about 203k contractors

Post: Burlington, VT area investors

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

Thanks for all the responses guys. We are here now and staying through the weekend so feel free to reach out!

Post: Where would you invest if you were in my situation (Live by Nyc)

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

@Andrew Giunta south jersey, philly area, and upstate NY all have places with decent returns that are driving distance. There are pockets of Newark that are a little nicer than most and have solid cash flow numbers as well. Your profile says you live in Hillsdale? I grew up in RV and went to PV. Am up your way pretty frequently and am happy to grab a beer and discuss more options. Honestly I would explore other areas too. If you are paying a property manager what difference does it make other than psychologically if a property is a 3 hour flight or a 4 hour drive? You're not going to be answering maintenance calls anyway.

Post: Burlington, VT area investors

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

Hi @Robert Jordan thanks for reaching out. I'll drop you a line if we head out that way. I was planning on stopping by the Alchemist to load up on Toppers so maybe we can take a detour out to Montpelier after visiting Stowe. 

Post: Burlington, VT area investors

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

Thanks for the response and referral @Ben Granja

@Ben Granja@Blair Knowles. We'll be up late Thursday night through Sunday so I'm sure we can find a time to make something work. Amen to finding deals in any market. Just need to look harder :) Looking forward to hearing from you.

Post: Burlington, VT area investors

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

Hi Vermontsters, my wife and I are taking a trip up to Burlington this weekend and I was curious if there are any active BP members in the Burlington, Colchester, Winooski area and what the landscape is there. I imagine most of it revolves around student rentals for UVM and St. Mikes students/profs. Anyway would love to meet up with some local investors. Beers on me.

Post: looking to buy out- of- state

Alex V.Posted
  • Rental Property Investor
  • Rutherford, NJ
  • Posts 116
  • Votes 91

Hi @Clifton Frazier welcome to BP! NYC area here so in the same boat when it comes to the local markets being really tough to get started in. Turnkey was a great first investment property. It's an easy way to learn a lot about the process, while hopefully getting a decent cash flowing rental property. The returns aren't like what they are when you hunt for deals on your own but it's an easy way to get skin in the game while you learn to get your docs in order, the purchase checklist, research sub-markets, and start building our your systems for managing the admin side.

I've done a little research on the Birmingham market happy to share what I know myself. @Clayton Mobley is a wealth of information on the area. I highly recommend reading his posts about Birmingham, and the turnkey vetting process, which doubles as a great set of questions for property managers if you go it on your own.