All Forum Posts by: Alexander Roeschmann

Originally posted by @Pat L.:

Carnival Cruise Bookings Surge 600% After Announcing August Relaunch!!!

Actually I don't agree with you. If you look at how their bookings are made, it is the same as disneyland. Minimal capacity and everything being extremely restricted. I don't see how our economy should continue on as it did before.

Alexander Roeschmann

It seems like this crises might be over soon, but that doesn't mean anything will return to normal. In fact there are major changes ahead and the chances of a massive Depression are extremely high. In this post I will explain to you why this is the case. But upfront a basic view of the regular economic cycle:

This total cycle covers 100 years. The linear line is the productivity.

We are currently in the last peak before the massive drop, if you overlook history. (last major depression: 90 years ago)!
All this is in direct connection with the Case-Shiller-House price index, at an all time high, just like in 1929 and 2008. All this together with exponential growth of US credit market debt, at all time highs, with rising Inflation and stagnating wages, will ultimately lead to a depression.

If you want to discuss more about it, I will be glad to discuss it in this forum!

Alexander Roeschmann

@Taylor L. Agreed, but taking out a second wave we are still on the brink of a depression in my opinion. With Government Debt on an all time high, eventual hyperinflation etc. it doesn't look good for the next 5 years. Later today I will write a post, addressing these Issues. I will post the link below!

Stay healthy and safe

Alexander Roeschmann

@Ian Walsh Could you please explain to me what the 50 house rule is? I've actually never heard of that in my life!

Alexander Roeschmann

@Ian Walsh

Do you mean the 50% rule?

@Victor S.

Appreciate it! I will check it out

@Blake Dailey

Yes that is becoming a real problem. The real concern that I have is that if the Fed keeps printing money, which they currently are that this could even lead to hyperinflation, which then causes interest rates to skyrocket and therefore significantly decreasing demand (lot of people cannot afford the high down payments, etc + high interest rate make properties less attractive to investors that want to create a positive cash flow).

I wish you the best of luck in this matter!

Alexander Roeschmann

Originally posted by @Victor S.:

Originally posted by @Alexander Roeschmann:

@Shaun Viveiros@Shaun Viveiros

From a macro economic standpoint, focusing down on real estate I say that if the economy does not open by the beginning of June, we will see the double dip in the stock market, which will immediately take out a lot of investors that got too greedy during this phase. According to the Elliot-Wave-Theories, we are only in the 4th section (out of 5) with the 5th being a tremendous drop.

Who are you following on EWT? Main guy (Avi Gilburt) from https://www.elliottwavetrader.... tends to think wave 4 was the low in 2009 and we're currently ebbing and flowing thru 5 on the way to 4000+ SPX in the coming years, before the next "crash" brings us down to restart everything again. 

I follow Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall. But I don't remember where I picked up that we are in the 4th wave. Hope you can educate me in this matter.

Alexander Roeschmann

Just a short info I could acquire and I'd like to hear your thoughts on how deep and close to a crash we already are:

Wells Fargo & Co WFC.N stop accepting home equity lines of credit given economic uncertainty.

For me this seems to start just like it did between 2006 - 2009 housing market.

Alexander Roeschmann

@Shaun Viveiros@Shaun Viveiros

From a macro economic standpoint, focusing down on real estate I say that if the economy does not open by the beginning of June, we will see the double dip in the stock market, which will immediately take out a lot of investors that got too greedy during this phase. According to the Elliot-Wave-Theories, we are only in the 4th section (out of 5) with the 5th being a tremendous drop.

So if the economy does not open by June (people can't pay their mortgage payments --> foreclosures --> supply goes up, while demand sinks), or if the Fed stops printing money with interest rates skyrocketing (people can't afford it anymore, same with increasing credit scores and down payment requirements), we will definitely see a huge price drop within the range of a bare minimum of 15% but going up to 40%.

There are a lot of opportunities ahead!

Alexander Roeschmann