Originally posted by
@Serge S.:
I am perpetually game planning future moves and this exercise inevitably requires taking a position on how the near future will unfold and the best way to benefit. I am interested in hearing what BP users think is about to unfold. Here is how I see it:
Stimulus provides very temporary tenant relief. April bad debt spikes to 5-15%.
By mid April the banks tighten lending. Bridge debt disappears. 60-65% LTV becomes norm. DSC minimum over 1.5. Cash out refi impossible to get. Multiple appraisals required. Frozen capital until the market resets to new normal.
By summer economic vacancy of 15% becomes the new normal.
Vegas condos in trendy hotels like Signature MGM, VDARA, Palms are selling for $150-250k.
Hospitality assets will be trading on ten-x auctions and $1M will buy you a 100 key Quality Inn in a decent metro like Tucson, Houston, etc.
Multifamily holds on the longest as operators scale back cap ex and race to the bottom on concessions, rent price, etc.
Retail strip centers in urban sprawl suburbs sit vacant no debt market or tenancy demand.
Syndicators that purchased in last 24 months in "hot growing" markets like Vegas, PHX, at 3.5% cap rates etc get cleared out by 2021. No point to run large capex value adds without the rent bump but can't pay mortgage without the rent bump = disaster. There will be a whole class of very disappointed investors.
2019 Hottest SFR markets will become worst performing by 2021. Homeowners get bailed out and are allowed to refi and ride out job loss.
Media pins economic disaster on Trump, Biden gets elected and quickly passes stimulas #2,3,4.
Hoping none of the above turns out true but I've seen this movie before.
