All Forum Posts by: Alex Fenske

 I struck out - ended up with one lead on it and didn't get a return call. I did think of one more contact since then although it sounds like you don't need them after all. Bah.

Hi everyone, here is the housing market update I publish for clients each months. As always, there are some interesting surprises! This is data for the Chicagoland metro area sourced from Midwest Real Estate Data LLC.

Housing Affordability - up slightly
- The NAR nationwide housing affordability index increased a few points into January, with the Midwest region remaining the most affordable in the nation.

Supply – down significantly
- New listings down 29% compared to last March, the fewest new March listings on record.
- Homes for sale reached another new all-time record low, 19% below last March and 10% below the prior record set this February. Homes for sale always goes up from February to March; this is the first time we’ve ever seen it dip at this time of year.

Demand – down significantly… or is it?
- Compared to last March, pending contracts are down 20% and closed sales are down 23%, matching demand levels from approximately 10 years ago.
- Much demand remains pent-up due to persistent low inventory. If 2,000 more homes came on the market today, most would immediately go under contract and pendings would surge. So how much is demand down, really?

Supply/Demand Relationship – unchanged, seller’s market
- While demand has dropped, supply is at all-time lows which more than offsets it.
- Seasonally adjusted housing supply has remained unchanged at 1.7-1.8 months since January 2022.
- Seasonally adjusted median days to contract have remained unchanged at 9 days for nearly 2 years.

Prices – stable to slightly down
- Monthly home prices were down 2.1% compared to last March, marking the fifth consecutive month that prices were lower than the same month a year ago. Expect this to turn around soon.
- Seasonally adjusted prices have been flat for 8 consecutive months.

Mortgage rates - volatile and weird
- Today’s (4/4/23) 30yr fixed averages 6.39%, down a half-point from a month ago and right around the average of the past 6 months.
- Inexplicably, the 5/1 ARM is currently priced higher than 30yr fixed (6.6%), and the 15yr fixed is priced right alongside government-backed 30yr loans (FHA/VA) around 5.9%.
- Inflation is down from 7-8% to 5% but still way above the 2% target. The Fed's next meeting on May 2 might bring no change in rates or a .25 increase. They’re feeling good about nipping the banking collapses in the bud, preventing that scare from spreading.

What to do?
- Sellers: The balance of power still lies with the seller, but pricing is flat. Price to active competition, not just closed sales which are helpful but do not provide the real-time info necessary during times of fluctuation.
- Buyers: Shop mortgage products at all times, and know that you’re competing over fewer listings than there have ever been.

 Exactly. Imperfect action beats perfect inaction, every day. Nowhere is it more evident than in the long-term holding of real estate.

Saw this news article and was inspired to share it here!

Dominic is a history teacher in Chicago who clocks in $45k/mo from a real estate portfolio he started building 27 years ago. There's nothing different about him compared to you. He's a regular guy who worked hard, lived below his means, and invested as much as he could in buying property. No, this is not the sexy HGTV-style version of real estate investing - it's the real wealth-building kind. It's also proof positive that you do not need to start off wealthy to do it. You don't need to be in the trades or have a background in construction, or finance, or anything else. You don't need to be a genius or have specialized knowledge. You just have to START, and KEEP GOING.

So, will you be the next Dominic?

Furnished Finder provides a tool that will show you the number of searches in a given area along with searching other available listings on the site - this can help you hone in on demand and pricing. Since you're in the Chicagoland area like me, it will be equally important to understand local government regulations in the various municipalities where you might seek to do this. And as others have mentioned above, make sure the property is acceptable to hold with long-term tenants as well - don't stake the whole deal on MTR revenue alone.

All FHA and VA loans that are still outstanding today are assumable, but only by owner occupants. I'm not aware of loans that are assumable by non-owner occupants. For those you'd need to structure something like what others have mentioned above, with the unlikely but present risk of the lender calling it due.

 Second that

Hi Jessica, some great advice above! In these conversations I always refer to someone we likely all remember, the Cheshire Cat in Alice in Wonderland. When Alice was lost in the woods and came across him, she asked,

Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
[The Cheshire Cat]: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.
[Alice]: I don't much care where.
[The Cheshire Cat]: Then it doesn't much matter which way you go.
[Alice]: ...So long as I get somewhere.
[The Cheshire Cat]: Oh, you're sure to do that, if only you walk long enough.”

It's always most effective to begin with the end in mind. Once you clarify your longer-term goals, the path to get from here to there will appear - usually pretty easily. Otherwise it's like showing up to complete some construction work and wondering which tool to use before you've decided what you're building. Feel free to connect if you'd like some guidance on establishing those goals and the path to achieve them!

Shoot me a message with what needs managing and I can get you a connection.

It's a popular question people are asking me these days. Here are my answers...

Will rates at some point be lower than they are today? Yes. What most people really mean when they ask me this question, though, is whether rates will go back down into the 4s and 3s. That answer is no.

Several times in the past 12 months, rates have swung up or down a full point in the span of just 30 days. In an industry where the typical transaction takes 41 days to complete, you can see how "timing the market" is typically a losing battle.

If you're day trading stocks that's one thing, but you're talking about a long-term investment acquisition. Better to lock in an investment purchase with a strong cap rate when you can, knowing that you can reduce financing costs in the future and will begin reaping the benefits of owning the investment property now as opposed to some undetermined time in the future.

As for waiting for prices to fall, you might be waiting a long time. Values in the Chicagoland metro area have flattened out on a 12-month average due to the last 4 months being down a hair (1-2%) compared to the same months the year prior. But at the same time there is an all-time record low number of homes available in this marketplace and it would take quite a bit more dropoff in demand to allow prices to fall by any noticeable amount. And the opposite is what's actually happening - the spring seasonal buyer bump is pushing us back into multiple offer, above-asking scenarios as the norm.

Buy a property that makes enough sense today to get into it, and know that you will benefit from near-term appreciation due to low inventory and can refinance sometime in the future at a nominal cost to improve net cash flow. It does help to talk to your lender about temporary (2-1 and 3-2-1) and permanent rate buydowns, evaluate other possibilities such as the 5/1 ARM, and keep an eye out for other creative financing options to make the most of the current environment. But don't try to time the mortgage market like you would time a day-trade; it just doesn't work out well.