All Forum Posts by: Alan F.

I'm not sure which post to add but the thread started by @Scott Trench for some reason says it's locked or at least I am locked out. The Trump one. Not here to talk politics, just strategy. Can someone unlock it for me?

That thread is going to reveal the details that a lot of us mentioned. Think RE will face some reckoning soon, but everything else is pointing to austerity.

Our Treasury Secretary just said this past weekend.

" Wall Street has done great, it can continue doing well, but it's main street's turn. It's main street's turn. And that's what we saw yesterday."

Tell me that isn't as clear as day. We'll disagree on the long term view of BTC but James, some others in the Trumpcession view like John & Henry Clark have been spot on. Its incredible the knowledge of this board. As a retired CTA and not to toot my horn, but one of the best CTAs too--some say since George Washington--the macro views is simply off the charts. Better than institutional money or "smart" money.

Something to continue to keep an eye on is oil like i mentioned before to @Alan F. , but also copper. If it breaks any support, forget the USA recession but global will need to follow especially after this YTD rally.

I hope we don't u turn and then throw Bessent under the bus. This is the right play especially since he inherited such a disastrous situation. Shame on "smart" money running the count thinking DJT 2025 is DJT 2017. Different game. 10 year down we go as I'm seeing leveraged RE as an investor touching 6% rates. Just need the absolute value to adjust a little in non primo.

Hopefully, Main Street does get back into it.

Hopefully this thread isn't locked

your predictions were spot on, big thanks!

yeah copper definitely went up, what's interesting though is my distributors are giving me 90 day lock ins for quotes? Makes me think they're bullish? Copper is always volatile in my biz.

q3 2023 was really ugly with so many tech contracts getting canceled. Now what's really weird is I just got 2, and they're both for installations of new capital equipment. The owners are rather optimistic.

I'm doing some shopping in equities and commodities, may not be prudent but....I can't stop myself lol!

0 Votes

Quote from @Dan H.:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Irony....a year ago a machine shop owner, in Santa Clara, I've known for years passed. Re-assesment prompted the kids to sell. They knew about my involvement in REI (just flipping SFH) and asked for help. They were initially looking in Sacramento (wanted to keep the labor force) but I couldn't find anything suitable. I drove to Sparks, found a broker and they bought the land and building. 80 jobs lost in CA, a win for Nevada machinist. I got to wire the new shop. The old tilt up is torn down and being replace with a 6 story MF.

I learned a bunch on this thread, I didn't know MF operators were a proponent of prop 19

I'd like to pass on my rural SF to my kid....maybe I'll just sell and buy out of state. IDK yet.

If Becca is still following, I looked on internet and I may be wrong about 2yr requirement, it says 1 year. In June I'm revising estate planning, hopefully I learn something from the lawyer.

I too am opposed to the erosion of prop 13.

CA has some of the lowest HO in the country, I don't think prop 19 is going to help younger people own homes

>I learned a bunch on this thread, I didn't know MF operators were a proponent of prop 19

I do not believe many MF owners were a proponent of prop 19. Maybe agents and other RE professionals that benefit from RE sales.

your welder story is so similar but I suspect you business owner made the smarter decision to punt on the business. My business owner made a decision that I think was based on his heart. They owned the property around 50 years but that was not their first site. They had been in business since the early 1960s (so near 65 years). I believe he does not want to be the one to shutter the family business (the business is named after their family name) after nearly 65 years in operation. Storing machining equipment does not seem wise. I have known the heir around 20 years. Just as a long time customer, but being so long means I have gotten to know him fairly well. Also his receptionist and his right hand man had not turned over since I have been using them. He told me the right hand man had been employed over 30 years (I suspect he stated right out of high school as he looks to be in early to mid 40s (the heir looks to be upper 40s)).

this is the consequence of prop 19. Family businesses getting shuttered at death.

by the way there is a large coastal land owner near Big Sur. He is leasing land for cattle in part to keep the prop 13 tax benefit (farm land is exempt for prop 19). The land is wide open now but suspect it would crazy valuation if reassessed for property tax purposes). Smart owner. Most the time you cannot tell there is cattle on the land except the cow patties.

i have heard second hand of the same thing being done by owners having small family wineries and growing grapes.

if anyone in CA has large land tracts that they want to protect from the property tax reassessment at death, consider what is required to have the land used for agrepiculture.

good luck

They also had this machine shop since the 60's, but they're contracts are in aerospace so too lucrative to give up. I'll be installing robotic palletizer soon as they are investing in more capital equipment.

thanks Dan

0 Votes

San Francisco, California

I learned a bunch on this thread, I didn't know MF operators were a proponent of prop 19

I'd like to pass on my rural SF to my kid....maybe I'll just sell and buy out of state. IDK yet.

If Becca is still following, I looked on internet and I may be wrong about 2yr requirement, it says 1 year. In June I'm revising estate planning, hopefully I learn something from the lawyer.

I too am opposed to the erosion of prop 13.

CA has some of the lowest HO in the country, I don't think prop 19 is going to help younger people own homes

0 Votes

San Francisco, California

It's my understanding that the child has to live in the property 2 years prior to the death of the parent.

I've been told to make sure every bit of paperwork i.e. DL, Voter reg etc reflects the home address.

not only does any CA Corp pay the $800 annual filing fee, but minutes and documentation and all corporate requirements must be met, regardless of how many people are in said Corp.

Am I incorrect? Any suitable alternatives?

I highly doubt prop 19 will be repealed.

it looks like the state will get it's pound of flesh without repealing prop 13.

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San Francisco, California

🙏

3 Votes

Casper, Wyoming

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Trent Reeve:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

"but according to a 2024 report from Social Security’s inspector general"

The reason that so many IG's were fired recently was because they are in on the game. They have little interest in uncovering fraud and waste because it would reveal their corruptness.

thats not why they were fired, but you believe what you want

"thats not why they were fired, but you believe what you want"

Oh I will....As you may know, IGs were introduced under Carter. Since then, the oversight process has gone to h*ll resulting (in part) in the immense waste and fraud.

This is much like the Dept of Education (also created under Mr Carter, hmmm). Before that horrendous day, the US was #1 in education...now we are #40.

you understand, education priorities and curriculum are set by state, not federally.

"you understand, education priorities and curriculum are set by state, not federally"

Of course. That's exactly why we do not need a Federally managed Department to oversee a State issue.

except to ensure even disabled kids have access to education.

Who do you think is dumb enough to believe this garbage?

Do you seriously expect anyone to believe disabled kids are denied education or access to education by there States, Counties or cities? And it requires the Federal Gov to get involved so disabled kids get education access.....

GARBAGE! I call BS to that inferment. And anyone with an ounce of intelligence will too.

THIS is why D's are polling at 27% now, because of total blatant BS like this. It doesn't even take the internet to see what BS this is, anyone who's had kids in schools knows this is BS.

Ridiculous, seriously, just ridiculous.

FWIW the DOE was a gift to the NEA for their "support"

1 Vote

Become a YT REI guru?

3 Votes

Miami, Florida

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Virgil Moore:

Quote from @Don Konipol:

“One of the most powerful (yet underutilized) tools is business credit card stacking. It allows investors to access $50K–$250K in 0% interest funding—without putting personal assets at risk.”

So, for anyone who doesn’t completely understand, the above is part of the OPs original “post”/advertisement concerning business credit cards . As can be seen, he states that borrowing money via business credit cards does NOT place a borrower’s personal assets at risk. The issue is that this is just plain incorrect. The borrower signs a personal guarantee, which, in the event of default places all of their assets, including personal assets, at risk of being forfeited. When confronted with this, the OP chose to provide a convoluted reason as to why this risk was somehow less risky than providing specific collateral. In actuality this is more risky; with specific collateral, such as real property, the lender must hold a foreclosure sale and only the DEFICIENCY amount is subject to judgement; in most cases the borrower can sign a”deed in lieu” and receive a release from any additional liability. In an unsecured loan there is no property to liquidate; the lender will just obtain a judgement for the principal, back interest, legal fees, late fees, and costs and the borrower will owe that amount. Again, a totally incorrect statement by the OP.
Let me also state that I have been active on BP since 2009. I’ve seen many different types of participants. The ones most active across ALL forums always speak the truth as they see it. They maintain no bias to promote whatever aspect of real estate they’re involved in. They feel that by being truthful, with timely, sage advice their contribution will be recognized, and any business generated as such is merely a bonus.

Another type of participants is one whose first post is some kind of ad for a service or product they happen to be selling. Characteristically their posts read like an AI generated Google page, or a slick website from a Guru. The answer to any problem is the service they sell, whether it be life insurance, credit card stacking, subject to financing, hard money loans, wholesaling, or the even crazier versions, like “infinity banking” etc. It’s not that the service itself or method isn’t legit, it’s that misinformation usually concerning risks, applicability, pricing, etc. is being spread. When called out they ALWAYS resort to personal attacks, name calling, and convoluted reasoning.

If you go look at my VSL I speak about having to PG, you both are so worked up you must not be making any money. So you’re mad at me.
Do either of you know anybody personally (with proof) that has lost their assets from credit card debt?

Virgil, A colleague of mine owns a company that buys bad CC debt for about 5 cents on the dollar usually the CC company does have a judgement that comes along with the sale.. then my buddy will monitor these judgements for their experation date ( state specific) but normally 5 years.. and sometimes extend another 5 years but at month 50 or 110 or so they do a search of defaulted CC borrower.. Most by then just think the debt is long and forgotten about.. they then file and the first time they shake hands with these folks is when their bank account just got tagged .. Its kind of ruthless but its real.. And he makes millions doing this.. I met this person in RE as he was / is a developer and I sold a shopping center he built leased up then sold. He was an excutive for Ernie Hahn. So super smart dude .. So yes people lose money all the time with CC defaults

I remember the Hahn company! I worked on Oakridge mall and Sunrise mall. They always paid on time, Westfield not so much.

0 Votes

Quote from @Thomas Shields:

Hello all,

When buying a property, what are some things that are absolute deal breakers in a deal? How do you know if any needed repairs would be absolutely detrimental to the long term value of the property? I'm trying to work out a deal now that needed some repairs but the seller came down about 50% on the credit for the estimated costs.

Thanks,

Thomas Shields

For me there's no 1 repair that's a deal breaker, it's my responsibility to accurately estimate repairs and upgrades. I'm particularly fond of knob n tube, screw shell fuse panels, aluminum wiring, undersized underground services, galvanized plumbing and asbestos HVAC upgrades. It's a matter of accurately estimates and seller concessions.

2 good $ makers I had was a flipper screwed up and their handyman cut the PT wires in a slab while trying to add a bathroom.

There's money to be made out there.

Deferred maintenance and hack work can be lucrative

0 Votes

Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Yep, there are many areas here I won't work in, S.F., Oakland, and several D areas.

Thieves are well aware of what's on or in an electricians truck. Customers in those areas aren't looking for quality work anyway.

Yeah, electricians have lots of that copper stuff :-)

And, as you well know, are the best most handsome men on the site lol ; )

I am on the last 6 new builds of the 90 home project I own here in Oregon.. so 84 homes done and delivered .. We got broken into once in the 3 years its taken me to build these. And our homes are totally exposed.. prior to garage door and other doors going in.. Now I have 6 police that have bought from me and they all bring their vehicles home so that is good. But the one break in I had there was a huge coil of copper wire they skipped that and just grabbed some power tools.. but they did but a door we had to fix.. But when we are doing rough in the house is totally open so will just knock on wood..

Man, I'm glad it's not been any worse!

since prop 47 & 57 passed I've had 2 catalytic converters stolen, 3 Windows, 20k in materials & 10k in tools. We're much more careful nowadays.

2 Votes

All Forum Posts by: Alan F.

Alan F. has started 14 posts and replied 941 times.

Post: Impact of International Travelers Cancelling US Travel

Post: California Prop.19, property taxes and rental properties

Post: California Prop.19, property taxes and rental properties

Post: California Prop.19, property taxes and rental properties

Post: This is why I invested.

Post: Impact of International Travelers Cancelling US Travel

Post: If You Had to Start Over with $10K, How Would You Invest in Real Estate?

Post: The #1 Funding Challenge Real Estate Investors Face—And How to Overcome It

Post: Property Repair Deal Breakers?

Post: Subcontractors walked off the job and wont return . Heres why