All Forum Posts by: Alan Ford

I know most people on this forum didn’t have STRs in the Smokies back during the last real recession, but are there any folks on here who do have some insight? I think the Smokies is pretty recession proof but would like to see if I can confirm this with first hand knowledge. I also reached out to a few property managers who have been in the area for decades. So far all my cabins are booking well.

@Michael Baum second home mainly. Probably 3 - 4 months out of the year I’ll live there. I work from home.

@Michael Baum oh man, not sure I want to start the whole process over haha! Plus it’s a single close construction loan. Not many lenders do it. I guess 3.5% isn’t really that bad for a 30 year fixed

@Michael Baum thanks! Odd on the rates thing, my lender tells me they are going up. I think it has to do with the amount of applications they are getting in lately and refinancing requests maybe.

Hi all (OP here) - so it's getting pretty crazy out there since I last wrote this post. Oddly enough - so far - my TN STR's are busier than ever. My property manager is actually getting more bookings compared to last year. He's doing some marketing specifically playing up the fact that a cabin in the woods is a pretty safe place to ride out something like this... haha... sad but true.

Still - worried about pulling the trigger on the new loan/property. I know long term it will be more than fine, but I’m worried about a short term situation. I know no one has a crystal ball, but how do we think the vacation rental world will look 6-8 months from now?

I guess even in worst case scenario if every single person in the country got this and 1% of the population passed away, that it still a lot of people left and I would guess a vaccine will come out as well...

Would you all pull the trigger on the new property? There is no question it would have cash flowed nicely under a normal circumstance. Also it was meant to be my vacation home ...

I keep hearing the interests rates will go down but it seems like all the non-variable rates are going up?? I was locked in for a 3.5% rate before all this happened and my lender says it’s a “good think you locked, our rates are up” but then I see people all over saying rates are down?? What am I missing.

@Collin H. Yes, please do... and umm, if you get any leads on hot properties there... lemme know ...so uhh...I can stay away from them too!!

Sarcasm over - I personally am enjoying having someone else buy me property, put net profit in my pocket every month, and to top it all off... both my properties are worth a combined $200k more than I paid for them....two year ago lol. By the way - I don’t even self manage and still raking it in.

Yeah... Smokies suck... lol.

@Avery Carl good info.

I think only  a few of you answered the actual question. Which was around saturation. Having said that, the comment about the number of cabins that burned down and the number built since is good information. I wonder if those of us doing well right now past few years are getting a bump because of demand outweighing supply. Eventually supply will outpace demand, and then I agree that it becomes more important to manage well and work on your margins etc. 

@Matthew Doyle I have been worried about this a little myself. Curious what everyone else says. Especially folks like Jay Fradd that have been in the area for a long time.