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All Forum Posts by: Andrzej Lipski

Andrzej Lipski has started 3 posts and replied 50 times.

Post: How is everyone feeling about rates?

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

Rates will continue to go up. Fed rate will go higher if only in smaller increments. The rate hike cycle was too fast that banks like SVB couldn't mitigate the risks and was undercapitalized to handle a run. The canary in the coal mine was that tech companies were laying off everywhere. Now comes the bank failures. It will ripple through the credit markets and you will see corporate debt break some overleveraged companies that didn't act to reduce their liabilities.

As the banks fail they will start forced sales of treasuries and corporate debt. Bond prices go down and yields go up. So real estate market will freeze as buyers walk away and more commercials default.

This is only the beginning.

Post: Anyone else waiting to buy once things settle?

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24
Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

think about this.

when rates were super slow  how much over bidding was going on 50k 100k 200k over ask or market value all to capture that 3% rate.

now you can buy down a 15 year and get about 4  to 4.2 but pay way less.. why wait.  

That kind of behavior was when rates were on the way down after the recovery from the 2008 crisis.

During the crisis few people could actually capitalize on the buying opportunities because lenders were not lending, home owners were foreclosed on, portfolios were collapsing like houses of cards. Most money was frozen in assets because they were upside down. Only those who has cash on hand were able to deploy it.

Post: MY THOUGHTS ON SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

People who think that this bank did not take on risk do not understand risk. I can only assume they don't understand that treasuries still have risk. The Federal Reserve communicated well in advance that they would stop buying assest, reducing money supply and raising rates. SVB had plenty of time to mitigate the risk they had but they largely ignored the writing on the wall. 

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

I wish you luck my friend. It is a horrible thing when the Government essentially takes control of private property. If this passes, I would hope that landlords vote with their feet and move their money to a landlord friendly state....


 Thanks Bruce. I'm thinking that that is what is going to happen. I see mom and pop landlords quitting and big hedge funds scooping up all the distressed properties. The government is so short sighted here only doing what keeps them in office. They aren't trying to find reasonable solutions just copy pasting what the socialist party have trained their supporters to repeat.

The state is going to turn into a bunch of big corporate slum lords and tenants will be either trapped in dilapidated properties because the rent is cheap or will leave because everyone will be raising rents on vacant properties.

The worst is the lapse in time eviction laws their are pushing. There is no recourse to evict terrible tenants that annoy everyone else in the building. As long as they pay they can do anything from playing loud music all hours of the night, damage the property, or worse. Good tenants will have no recourse because landlord hands are tied so they will be the one that move out or suffer because they are in a rent controlled unit.

Its bad news for everyone.

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

This Tuesday, 2/28 there's another public hearing in the Housing Committee that has the worst proposals so far this year.

We need for you to testify on zoom and/or provide written testimony on 3 Bills set for a public hearing on Tuesday, 2-28 at 11:00 am

The landlord response to testifying this session has been less than what's needed. We won't stop these proposal unless you get involved, yes, this means you!

First, here's the link to submit written testimony Just cite your displeasure with these proposals and please don't submit anonymous testimony, it gets discarded.

The deadline to register by zoom is 3:00 PM today (2-27) to speak on Zoom at the hearing, here is the registration link

The 3 Bills We Are Concerned About

HB 6781, AN ACT ADDRESSING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY FOR RESIDENTS IN THE STATE.

Link To The Bill

This Bill contains these negative provisions;

  • Increase fines to $2,000 a day for failure to maintain a property when it could be tenant caused damages
  • Eliminates Lapse of Time Eviction in building with 5 units or more
  • Requires landlords to notify tenants of their rights in evictions
  • Makes denying a tenant based on their 5 year old eviction record a discriminatory act

HB 6780 AN ACT CONCERNING TENANTS' RIGHTS.

Link To The Bill

This Bill contains these negative provisions;

  • Limits your application fees to the cost of your screening report
  • Force owners to accept a tenants copy of a previous screening report and not charge an application fee...even if the report is possibly photo-shopped or from an inferior screening company
  • Eliminates Lapse of Time Eviction in building with 5 units or more
  • Requires landlords to notify tenants of their rights in evictions

SB 4 AN ACT CONCERNING CONNECTICUT'S PRESENT AND FUTURE HOUSING NEEDS.

Link To The Bill

This Bill Contains these negative provisions;

  • Institutes a rent cap at 4% increase plus a CPI adjustment
  • Creates an eviction moratorium between December 1 and March 31 so tenants you start to evict in August live rent free to next April!
  • Limits your application fees to the cost of your screening report
  • Force owners to accept a tenants copy of a previous screening report and not charge an application fee...even if the report is possibly photo-shopped or from an inferior screening company
  • Caps late fees at $25 or $5 a day whichever is less

Post: Software Engineer Real Estate Investors

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

Hi Nicolas and Stephan,

I started my career as a Software Engineer. I've build a app that crawls foreclosure data, and county records like Stefan. I also crawl some of the listing sites, market reporting companies like NAR, and economic and demographic data in the North East.

So far I can get land records, rental estimates, owner data, median income, crime rates, comps. It can do a pretty good deal calculation (cashflow, roi). Its' pretty good and showing value add on properties that are on the market

Biggest challenges are that zillow is terrible with their data.  There are a lot of properties that they provide data for that are really rental data.  So a duplex will show up 3 times and look like 1 multifamily and 2 single units for only $1000 each.

As a small developer I can't afford the $1000+/month for API feeds from CoreLogic, AttomData, and Zillow. Once this app is marketable I could convert to published APIs.

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

Hearing starts now! May sure you are watching. It should be live streaming soon. https://www.youtube.com/@cga-h...

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24

Hi everyone. There is a major update to these housing bills. Please vote this thread up so it gains more visibility. We need everyone to oppose these bills so that it doesn't hurt tenants and landlord; and cause long term damage to the state's economy and.

There are 2 bills up for testimony tomorrow. HB 6588 and HB 6589.

Both bills are very similar, 4% + Inflation yearly maximum, they also deny rent increases during a "state wide public health emergency" and extends the rent freeze 1 year after! The state doesn't do this for any other product or service. heating oil, gas, electricity, eggs? They all let you pay for the high inflation of those products and services.

You can Write " I OPPOSE HB 6588 and HB 6589" on your testimony and just file one time. Make sure to check( highlight) both bills off, in the bill numbers box when submitting your testimony.

https://www.cga.ct.gov/aspx/CG...

Here are some great talking points thanks to David Haberfled for creating these

I OPPOSE Rent Caps (aka rent control)HB 6588 and HB 6589 for many reasons “Next to bombing, rent control seems in many cases to be the most efficient technique so far known for destroying cities."- economist Assar Lindbeck iRent controls have a long history of failure around the country. Many are rescinded because they don’t work as intended and the misallocation of resources becomes apparent to the residents. While initially helping the few people who obtain a stabilized /controlled unit the mass majority of renters end up losing in the long run as properties become unprofitable and maintenance ceases, eventually units become uninhabitable or are removed from the market for other purposes. Without the ability to increase rents to keep up with rising costs landlords have little incentive to improve the property, and builders are discouraged from creating new housing stock.

1) Caps on increases effectively mandate property owners to lose money at some point. What good will it do when there are no funds to maintain the property or incentives to do any upgrades when you can’t recoup the costs with higher rent? Quality of living will deteriorate quickly as buildings fall into disrepair. There are over 40,000 mothballed units presently in NY City because its not economically feasible to remodel the units and return them to the rental market.*[1] https://therealdeal.com/issues_articles/that-empty-feeling/

2) With the profit incentive removed many landlords will remove units for other profitable purposes, like converting to condos or redevelopment, thus removing housing stock from the market and exasperating the shortage of rental housing.

3) Last year the State greatly expanded the Fair Rent commission statute ( C.G.S. §§ 7- 148b through 7-148f, 47a-20 and 47a-23c),requiring many towns to have a Fair Rent Commission . This was specifically set up to control unjust rent increases. Why won’t we give the commissions a chance to work? Why would the state need both rent caps and the commissions?

4) The Connecticut State Constitution is clear: SEC. 11 Specifically states “The property of no person shall be taken for public use without just compensation” . This provision protects everyone from government confiscation of property without just payment. When rent caps or rent controls are enacted the government deprives the property owner of cash flow to operate the building and a reasonable return for the efforts thus lowering the value of the property in the process. This is clearly a form of government “taking”. The Connecticut Supreme Court shot down the power of municipalities to enact rent controls but allowed for municipalities to establish fair rent commissions to ”control and eliminate excessive rental charges” (CGS §§ 7-148b to -148g) and empowers these commissions to enforce provisions of a landlord-tenant statute generally prohibiting landlords from increasing rent as a retaliatory action against tenants (CGS §§ 47a-20 and 47a-20a). (See #3 above), And any tenant residing in a building or complex consisting of five or more separate dwelling units who is (1) age 62 or older or (2) an individual with a physical or mental disability may bring action in Superior Court to contest an excessive rent increase or proposed rent increase (CGS § 47a-23c(c)).

5) Rent Control Makes It Harder to Find an Apartment Property owners will convert rental apartments into condominiums and replace structures with other types of buildings, resulting in a decline in housing supply and making rent increases likelier over the long run. The incentive to build housing of any kind is greatly curtailed, again lowering the supply of new apartments. Landlords will also raise their standards for renting as one bad tenant can have a detrimental effect on the bottom line, marginal tenants will suffer the most. Rent Control Does Not Make Housing More Affordable | Manhattan Institute (manhattan-institute.org)

6) Rent Caps Will Reduce City Tax Revenues

Rent controls clearly suppress property values and municipalities can expect lower revenues, hindering their ability to provide essential services.

7) If Rent Caps/controls don’t affect the number of new apartments created then why does the bill exempt them for the first 15 years? Older buildings are in as much need of cash flow to rehab and upgrade the units, which will be greatly curtailed with the caps.  

8) Rent increases are already limited: I can only get what my tenants can afford. In Hartford where I manage property, in the last two years my expenses went up by $ 120 a month per a unit but I could only raise the rent $80 because I know that’s the most many already struggling tenants can afford.

9) These bills freeze rents during a “ State wide public health emergency” and 1 year after. Will any other businesses be subject to such control? Will our taxes, utilities, insurance costs, labor costs be Frozen as well? I doubt it. IF the state wants to help struggling renters, then the cost burden should be upon the treasury of CT and not the individual property owners. In other words, if it’s a public benefit then the public should pay for it. How the State can ACTUALLY help renters.· 

Build MORE housing, of all types The state must encourage building by drastically removing zoning restrictions, environmental hurdles and other barriers.· 

Create, creative financing solutions for building of affordable rentals and let each town come up with their own ways to encourage building of multi -families.· 

Raise Wages so renters can afford to pay for Housing· 

Cap assessments for multifamily housing at a low level to help keep taxes predictable and reasonable (Hartford chose to increase taxes 40-60% last year, resulting in large rent increases)· 

Cap electric rate increases (50% last year), Insurance rate increases (15% last year) Natural gas (40% increase this year),

Cap interest rates on variable rate financing (most commercial loans have 5 year terms adjustments. 85% increase in two years)· Increase direct payments to qualified renters, to offset rising rents. 

Expand the renters’ rebate or UniteCT programs from the state.

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24
I really don't understand how they can't see the economics of all of this. The simplest solution would be subsidize builders to put up more units. But the knee jerk reaction that appeals to voters is what they are going for even if it makes the problem worse.

Post: Rent control in Connecticut is coming for your property.

Andrzej LipskiPosted
  • Investor
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 50
  • Votes 24
This Tuesday, February, 7th we need your help to stop 3 harmful Proposed Bills from impacting housing providers and your support for a 4th.

If you can't testify by Zoom, then please submit written testimony before noontime on Tuesday, Here's that Link https://www.cga.ct.gov/aspx/CG...

Tuesday is the 2nd of 3 Public Hearings in the Housing Committee. There will be another on Thursday 2/9. We need testimony for each hearing. THURSDAY RENT CONTROL IS LIKELY on that agenda!

Talking Points For Tuesday


H.B. No. 6590 (RAISED) - CERTAIN PROTECTIONS FOR GROUP AND FAMILY CHILD CARE HOMES - 
https://www.cga.ct.gov/2023/TO...
OPPOSE BILL
This Bill forces cities and towns to allow group homes and child care facilities regardless of zoning. It mandates that any child care home have an inspection for lead paint prior to that facility being licensed.

It doesn't specify if lead paint is found would this require the owner to abate the lead or the child care facility. This also impacts the operating expenses of a housing provider and possibly could result in disturbing the neighbors quiet enjoyment if facilities are in multi-unit dwellings.
The bill fails to mention who can qualify for operating a child-care facility. What are the requirements to get a license? How many children per facility? Can a facility have 25 children in a 3 room apartment?
S.B. 940 (RAISED)  WALK-THROUGH INSPECTIONS OF RENTAL PROPERTY -

https://www.cga.ct.gov/2023/TO... 
SUPPORT BILL

Requires the commissioner of housing to create a preoccupancy walk-through checklist. After Jan 1, 2024, owners shall offer new tenants an opportunity to conduct a joint inspection of an apartment prior to moving in and note any damages and conditions that may exist. These conditions shall not be deducted from the tenant's security deposit upon termination of the lease agreement.

S.B. No. 942 (RAISED) AN ACT CONCERNING RENTAL APPLICATION FEES. -

https://www.cga.ct.gov/2023/TO...
OPPOSE BILL

The Bill limits that only the cost of the background check can be charged to a rental applicant and the owner must provide a receipt for the report and a copy of the report to the tenant. It allows the tenant to provide a landlord with a copy of their report and the owner can't then charge an application fee. It doesn't specify how old a report can be shared but data is typically updated every 30 days for credit and criminal, evictions could be updated as often as daily

There are several issues with the Bill, first and foremost, software can photo-shop anything and change a credit score from 500 to 800 and delete negative items from the report. There's a big issue with the integrity of the screening report if the chain of custody between screening service and owner is broken.
Second, there's more to processing a rental application than a background checks. There are services to verify income and references and costs are associated with these processes.
Third, in many cases, the housing provider by contract with their screening company can not provide the applicant a copy of their report to guard against identity theft. Any applicant, if denied an apartment can request a copy of their report through the background check provider.
S.B. No. 943 (RAISED) THE RETURN OF SECURITY DEPOSITS UPON THE TERMINATION OF TENANCY. - https://www.cga.ct.gov/2023/TO...
OPPOSE BILL

The Bill changes the time-frame from 30 days to 10 days to return a tenant's security deposit. This is an impossible time-frame to comply with as it's hard enough now to get contractors to provide written estimates within 30 days let alone just 10 days.