Hey all, glad I found this post. My wife and I are looking at SF for STR. She is from nearby and her parents retired in SF so made sense for us to look somewhere we know.
Initially, we started looking and were really encouraged by the numbers, particularly 4-bed homes. Then we started digging deeper into data from PriceLabs and spotted that occupancy in Jan-Apr 2021 vs Jan-Apr 2022 went from an average of 54% to 43% and median ADR from $162 to $156 for 4-bed. For the overall market, the numbers are 58% to 49% and ADR stable. The significant drop in average occupancy is concerning since it drives so much of the analysis. With the price of homes in the market, rates rising, etc., and this being our first deal, I am just trying to gain a little confidence in the numbers.
My questions then are: Has anyone seen these numbers play out in their own properties? Maybe not exactly, but has occupancy dropped significantly YoY? What is the general state of the STR market at this point? Are you seeing a slowdown of bookings? @Benjamin Aaker@James Katsare the success of your properties mostly driven by traveling workers and are you seeing tourist travelers drop off?
Lastly, I'd be interested in what size properties you own that are performing well. We'd like to get in and buy a couple this year then buy a few in a traditional tourist area.
I definitely fell into analysis paralysis at one point and finally overcame it to start making offers, but when I stumbled across these numbers it gave me pause, so any help is greatly appreciated. We have a couple properties a week we find we are interested in and keep hesitating based on our confidence in these numbers.
Thanks again.
Andrew