Mortgages Bankers Weekly Update

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of  3/10/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.2 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 1.5 percent the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5.7 percent from one week earlier. 

Purchase Index:  increased 7.2 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity:  decreased to 67.2 percent of total applications from 69.1 percent the previous week. The refinance share is at its lowest level since it was 66.1 percent in October 2009.

Arm Share: increased to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The economy is growing again. 4Q growth of 2009 exceeded expectations due to strong growth in business inventories. However inventory replacement is a short lived spurt, unless consumers buy. Weakness in the job market and a fragile recovery are likely to keep consumers from spending on big ticket items like houses and cars.

Existing home sales fell back in December and new home builders are not upbeat. The Fed remains unlikely to raise rates, however, they are going to end their MBS purchase program. This will certainly cause a rise in interest rates as the marketplace demands higher rates to compensate for risk.