Owning a Home - Cheaper Than Renting?

Across the country, at today’s sales and rent prices, buying is cheaper than renting until the 30 year fixed rate reaches 10.5%. The recent rise in interest rates has made buying a home a little more expensive. The recent increase in the 30 year fixed rate raised the monthly payment on a $200k mortgage by $56, or 6%. However, because mortgage rates are still near historic lows, and because values fell so much after the housing bubble burst and remain low relative to rents, owning a home is still much cheaper than renting one. What this means that the recent jump in interest rates doesn’t change the rent versus buy calculations very much.

Mortgage rates may keep rising, but how far must rates rise before buying DFW homes start to get expensive relative to renting? Answer; take the latest asking prices and rents from April, May, and June 2013. Following the standard approach calculating the cost of buying and renting for similar sets of homes, including insurance, insurance, taxes, closing costs, down payment, sales proceeds, and, the monthly mortgage payment on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with 20% down and monthly rent. Most folks will stay in their Plano homes for 7 years, deduct their mortgage interest and property taxes at the 30% tax bracket, and get modest appreciation.

Buying Dallas real estate remains cheaper than renting as long as interest rates stay below 10.5%. At 3.9%, the current 30 year fixed rate according to Freddie Mac, buying is 41% cheaper than renting across the U.S. at a 5% interest rate, buying is still 34% cheaper than renting. Mortgage rates would have to rise a great amount, all the way to 10.5% to change this to make renting more favorable than owning. Rates were about that high through most of the 1980s, but have been consistently below 10.5% since May 1990. Each market area has its own mortgage rate tipping point where renting becomes cheaper than owning a home. At 3.9%, buying is cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest metros areas, which means the tipping point is above 3.9% everywhere.

The tipping point also depends on how long you plan to stay in your next home and whether you itemize your tax deductions or not. If you don’t itemize, or if the mortgage interest and property tax deductions were eliminated entirely, buying would still be 29% cheaper than renting at an interest rate of 3.9%, and the tipping point when renting becomes cheaper than buying would be at a 7.5% rate. Just because buying is cheaper than renting, it doesn’t mean you can buy. Many folks who want to buy don’t have enough down payment or have poor credit.

If the recent increase in interest rates doesn’t change the rent versus buy equation substantially, why does it matter? The main effect is reducing refinancing demand. Unlike home buying, refinancing is a relatively straightforward financial decision: although refinancing has costs associated with it, refinancing doesn’t require someone to find a home or move. Since rates have been low for so long, many people who were able to refinance, already have done so. For folks who haven’t refinanced yet and for people looking to buy a home, rising rates do make housing more expensive. Rates are on the rise and are may keep rising, thanks to the strengthening economy. But it will take big rate increases to turn off prospective home buyers. At today’s prices and rents, rates would have to rise to levels we haven’t seen in 20 years before renting is cheaper than owning a home on average across the country.