Where's the Real Estate Market headed?

One always hears different “expert opinions” on the direction of the real estate market.  Usually these stories quote a single expert.  The problem with quoting one expert is that you will have differences of opinion depending on which expert you ask.  Experts usually have a bullish or bearish attitude towards the future.

I prefer to go a different route when trying to gauge the future of the market.  I use the MacroMarkets forecast (http://www.macromarkets.com/real-estate/home-price-survey.asp).  This is a financial company, started by Robert Shiller (co-founded Case-Shiller Weiss real estate index), which aggregates “a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts”.  They are surveyed every quarter regarding the 5-year expectations for future home prices in theUnited States.

 I like this method over the single expert since it averages or smoothes out the individual expectations and gives a better overall direction of the market.

 Based on the latest December 2011 survey we won’t see positive gains until 2013.

 Here is the latest forecast:

• 2011: decrease of 1.97%
• 2012: decrease of 0.18%
• 2013: increase of 1.75%
• 2014: increase of 2.71%
• 2015: increase of 3.23%





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