SLO County Housing Brief - August, 2024

"There’s always opportunity in real estate. It’s just a matter of finding that opportunity in the current market." - Samantha DeBianchi

A lot of excitement around the industry as the new rules from the settlement take effect. But that's not what I'm interested in. What I care about is the data! What are the numbers telling us about the state of the market? Let's take a look at the Year-Over-Year numbers...

3 Key Points & Summary

1. % of homes sold above asking is at its lowest point (31%) since 2020. (20%)
2. % of homes sold above asking remains 71% higher than pre-pandemic levels.
3. Active inventory is up 17%, but still less than half of pre-pandemic levels.

Summary: 
Year-to-date, every stat we track (aside from Median Sold Price) is moving in a favorable direction for buyers. New listings are up 13% to go along with added inventory and declining competition, all while interest rates are finally falling. That creates a double-edged sword, however. Median sold price fell in 2023, only to rebound to all-new highs. ($900k, ytd.) Bottom line... While buyers are gaining some ground, we remain in a seller's market.

Year-Over-year

These numbers look like a big shift over August, 2023, which is true. However, 2023 (as a whole) was an extremely down year. Particularly for New Listings and Sold Properties. Plus, it was the first year since 2012 that saw a drop in Median Price. 

So let's see how 2024 compares with the past few years... 

What we're seeing are the Jan-Aug numbers for each year since 2017. New Listings and Closed Properties are still below every other year (other than 2023). Competition, however, has shown signs of normalizing. The Percent of Homes selling ABOVE asking price is at its lowest point since 2020, while AVG Inventory is at its highest point in that same timeframe. 

Does this mean good news for buyers? Well... Unfortunately for buyers the Median Price recovered from the drop in 2023 to set all new highs in 2024. Also, while Inventory is recovering, it is still less than half of what buyers were accustomed to prior to the pandemic. Let's see a few more listings with a % Above Asking in the low-20% range and then we'll talk. 

(Quick Note...It's crazy to think that buyers might be hoping to get back to 2017-2019 levels in the market when that was still considered a pretty strong seller's market...)

Inventory Swell

From 2017 - Present, every single year saw Active Inventory peak by August and begin falling by September.... Until 2023. 

Last year, inventory peaked in October, and remained near that level until early Decemeber. That could be an outlier due to the extremely low levels of Active Inventory. However, 2024 appears to be in similar toerritory. As we head into September Active Inventory is still on the rise. I doubt it peaks as late as last year, but perhaps later peaks will become a new market trend.

More good news regarding inventory is that the trough and peak for 2024 are showing improvement. The annual trough (low point) has risen 3 years in a row, while the annual peak (high point) is above 2022's peak and appears to still be climbing. 

This suggests the rising inventory levels are here to stay. But we've still got a long way to go to get back to a "normal" pre-pandemic level. 

We'll check back in after September with our Q3 report which will help us see if Active Inventory is continuing to rise, or mellowing out to end the year.