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I Survived Real Estate 2008 - Part 9 TNG Radio
Part nine of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” is the final portion of the radio segments for the event. The show picks up with a bit of a rerun from last week. All new discussions around minute 14.
We pick up where Tommy Williams chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”
Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.
Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.
Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.
Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.
Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.
Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.
Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.
Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.
Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.
Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.
Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.
Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market. Bruce looks for migration coming back as the true indicator as the decline for foreclosures. We’ve gone from 16 months of inventory to under 7 months but sees it as a false indicator. Those that didn’t have to sell left the market.
Joel Singer disagrees. He’s assuming 85% of homes are owner occupied. He doesn’t see too many rentals occurring for those pulling out of the market since they don’t have to sell, especially in coastal regions. Inland Empire is where most of the vacancies are occurring. He agrees that people who don’t have to sell don’t and pull out of the market. He said it was like this in the 90s. Affordability tells you about first time buyers but not the trade up market. We still have to consider unemployment rate. Affordability is not perfect but decent indicator of first time buyers. Psychology is important too.
Joel says 50% more sales are occurring on top of tight lending so things could be changing. He thinks more investors are going to be needed for a certain period of time. He thinks a few of Bruce’s ideas could be sold but others could not. He does think from a policy point of view that affordability going up is a good thing.
The vacancy rate is getting close to the national average but it’s always different here in California. Joel thinks the loan assumptions idea won’t work. 90 day seasoning period for investors should be able to work with some sort of certification that the repairs have been done.
Bruce asks Christopher which chart he’s looking at for an end of the downturn. He says when prices stop dropping. Joel says that seasonally prices are sure to fall in the coming months as they typically do. Christopher rephrases his original comment to seasonally adjusted.
Joel feels prices in some areas are already improving and multiple bidding is occurring. Joel feels a bottom floor is starting to appear in some areas. The overall economy will be important in deciding the outcome as will the outcome for Fannie and Freddie.
Christopher says we have way too many 4,000 square foot houses. He also brings up unemployment so there are still other things to consider before he calls it over.
Joel reminds the audience that markets are local and that San Bernardino and South Bay are very different. He says most people will miss the bottom.
Bruce beings up the list of properties the Norris Group purchased. Homes The Norris Group purchased for $110k are now being bought for $85k. These properties often also have multiple bids but our offers are stronger. Bruce is worried about twice as many trustees deeds then sales in Riverside County. That ratio is much worse then last time.
Joel says statewide though it’s different and there’s still more sales than foreclosures. He’s actually surprised. If you go up to 400,000 foreclosures then there’s a much more serious problem.
Philip says there are portfolio lenders that are stepping up with non-owner occupied with low 7%-high 6%, 30% down, with no limit for investors. So there is financing out there.
Bruce thanks the panel and the evening ends. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.
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I Survived Real Estate 2008 took place on August 23rd, 2008 at the Nixon Library in Yorba Linda, CA. The event proceeds went to benefit the Orange County Affiliate of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure. Over 400 attended the live event, many more attended online via Proxibid who aired the entire event nationwide online over the Internet, and many more will watch the event recording online.
This event was about solutions for our ailing real estate industry and to help an important cause. Eight industry experts from different real estate sectors converged to discuss how we got here, where we're going, and how we move forward together and prosper in the coming year. This is a rare opportunity to hear how leadership from the Realtors, builders, investors, mortgage industry, auctioneers and service providers each would approach and solve issues in the current California and national real estate market.
Expert Real Estate Panelists Inclulded:
Tommy Williams, President of the National Auctioneers Association
Rick Sharga, VP Marketing RealtyTrac
Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics
Bruce Norris,
President of The Norris Group
Joel Singer, Executive VP for C.A.R.
Annemaria Allen, The Compliance Group
Richard Lambros, Building Industry Association of Southern California
Philip X. Tirone, 7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score
Click HERE to see information on I Survived Real Estate 2008 including information about the video online. A very special to the following sponsors who made I Survived Real Estate 2008 possible:
I Survived Real Estate 2008 Platinum Sponsors:
San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA) and Bill Tan: http://www.sdcia.com/
Investors Workshops and Shawn Watkins: http://www.investorsworkshops.com/
Frye / Wiles: http://www.fryewiles.com/
Proxibid: http://www.proxibid.com/
White House Catering: http://www.whcatering.com/
MVT Productions: http://www.mvtpro.com/
Pechanga Resort & Casino: http://www.pechanga.com/home.asp
The Denver Nuggets: http://www.nba.com/nuggets/
The Chicago Bulls: http://www.nba.com/bulls/
The Cleveland Cavaliers: http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/
Gold Sponsors:
Silverstar Finance - http://www.silverstarfinance.com/
Elite Auctions - http://www.sellwithauction.com/
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score: http://www.7stepsto720.com/
RealtyTrac - http://www.realtytrac.com/
The Mission Inn - http://www.missioninn.com/
Las Brisas Escrow - http://www.lasbrisasescrow.com/
Chicago Title Company - https://www.ctic.com/
The Mortgage Equity Group - http://themeg.net/
Wholesale Capital Corporation - http://www.wccmtg.com/
Real Wealth Investor - http://www.realwealthinvestor.com/
Saddleback Valley Communities: http://svc4.com/
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary: http://www.sunsethills.cc/ =
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (NORCALREI) - http://www.norcalreia.com/
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - http://www.theshortsaleprocessor.com/
Investors Resource Center of America Los Angeles Chapter (IRCA)- http://www.irca-losangeles.com/
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - http://www.nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com/
Real Wealth Investor - http://realwealthonline.com/
Northern San Diego Real Estate Investors - http://www.nsdrei.org/
National Club of Real Estate Investors - http://www.ncrei.com/
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - http://1wealthcreation.com/
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - http://www.realestateclubla.com/
TNG Hard Money for California Real Estate Iinvestors and Craig Hill- http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/hard-money-lending.html
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