Cape Coral / Ft. Myers / SWFL Market Update Nov 2024

[Adam Bartomeo]

Below is the market update that I sent to all of the owners that we work with. We send these out once every 3 -6 months. The format didn't transfer directly to BP, so, make sure that you scroll all the way to the bottom. Please let me know if you have any questions.

November 2024 Market Update
Our market updates over the past 2 years have hopefully prepared you for the declining market that we are currently experiencing. In the June 2024 update, I said “All indications are that it will get worse before it will get better”, and this has proven to be true. Based on today’s update we are still amid that declining market. We are currently experiencing another downward push on rental prices (we are continuing to reduce rents), an increase in vacancies, and an increase in time to fill units. We have been in contact with other individuals throughout the state and they are all saying the same thing – prices are down, time to fill units is up, and evictions are up. Below is the factual data.

Rental Inventory & Median Rental Prices (The data is for Ft Myers and Cape Coral)
As stated in previous updates throughout the year, we were expecting an increase in inventory and a decrease in rental pricing. YOY we went from a low of 1,803 to a high of 2,209 which is a 22.5% increase in inventory. From May – Oct it appeared the inventory leveled out but in November we are currently seeing a 200 unit increase over October. Which is the reason for this update.
The median rental price has a direct correlation to the increased inventory. As you can see in the charts and we saw decreasing rents from May – Oct while at the same time inventory increased. In November we have seen the same exact pattern – inventory increased, prices are dropping, and the time to procure a qualified tenant increased. This month we have matched our highest vacancies, 49 (May of 2024).
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Sales Numbers
As you look at the chart you will see that almost all of the YOY numbers are going in the wrong direction; Median Price – 3%, Closed Sales -13%, DOM + 54.3%, Inventory +15.1%, and MOS +32.3%. As we sit in November, I can tell you that the inventory numbers, as of today, are above 5,000, which is 1,000 over October. It seemed like once Trump won the race that a flood of inventory came on the market. Real estate is VERY slow to react and will take a minimum of a year before we see how the Presidents economic policies affect us. In my opinion, the folks that blindly listed their properties based on the presidential election will force the prices down even further. We will truly know the outcome once we are in season and can see what the buyer’s market turns into.

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Future
With the current reduction in interest rates (.5% and .25%) we may see a slight increase in home sales. It normally takes at least a 1% reduction and several months before it is actually realized in real estate sales. I am confident that “Drill Baby Drill” (aka reducing the price of oil, aka reducing everything that is transported) will directly impact the cost of goods thus increasing tenants and buyers purchasing power. I am also confident that we will see a decrease in interest rates throughout the next year. I am not confident that the deportation of illegals will help with the pressures of declining rents or reducing inventory. My crystal ball tells me that if all goes well, we should see stabilization of rents and sales prices somewhere between March – October. And, just maybe, an increase towards the end of the year.