Zillow ads climate risk insights, but too many people are ignoring the data

[Brett Jurgens]

A sign of the times. Zillow is adding climate risk scores powered by First Street for every for-sale listing on its platform.

Another Zillow survey published in September 2023 found that 83% of home shoppers considered climate risks when looking at homes – but far too many are ignoring the warnings.

The 2023 US Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration data shows Florida and Texas ranked #1 and #2 for new move-ins with 1.25m people migrating to those two states combined.

Now let’s pair this with climate risk...

Policygenius ranked the 48 contiguous states for climate risk based on drought, extreme heat, wildfires, flooding, and climate change preparedness.

Guess which state has the highest climate risk? Florida. And Texas is 4th worst.

Here are the top 10 states where people moved in 2023 along with their climate risk ranking. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are unfortunately at very high risk as well.

I think we’ll see large swaths of climate refugees moving to the midwest, upper midwest and mountain west. This is where land and home values will increase the most, and where they’re currently less expensive in many cases. Development will start to happen at higher rates as more people move. Jobs will be most in demand as the populations in these states grow.

What does this mean for the future of homeownership, rental property investing, home values, insurance, and migration?

How long will this take to happen?

How do you feel about it personally especially if you’ve migrated to / from a risky state in the last 2-3 years?

Climate rankings for all 48 states from Policygenius**:
https://infogram.com/best-and-worst-states-for-climate-change-1hd12yx3orgyx6k

Census Bureau migration data*:
https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html

Zillow press release on adding climate data:
https://zillow.mediaroom.com/2024-09-26-Zillow-introduces-First-Streets-comprehensive-climate-risk-data-on-for-sale-listings-across-the-US

[Bruce Woodruff]

Much of this climate paranoia is usally driven by false ...or more accurately -  'incompletely (or incorrectly) analyzed' data.

For example, I see that you list Arizona as a State that is 'in danger' because of dwindling water supplies....yet you fail to manetion that they get much less of their % water from the Colorado, instead having rivers and underground sources to rely upon. Unlike So Cal, that gets a larger % or their water from the Colorado.

If the environmentalists in Cali would go away and we could get desalination going, Cali would be fine. And so would the rest of the Soutwest, which could then claim it's higher (and rightful) claims to the Colorado supply.

Basically so many moving parts and ways to deal with the climate issues, both those that are real and those that are imagined. ANd then for all we know, the planet coiuld be on the verge of entering a new Wet-Age or Ice-Age. Moot point then.

But in response to your original question, no, I would not even consider climate in my choices for where to buy rentals or investment properties. It's all about the $$$$. Does it make sense and will it make money? I.E. Florida....some 'Chicken Little' investors are selling and running about now. Can you say Opportunity Awaits?