Current Valuation- Legit or Hype

Current Valuation- Legit or Hype

Investor · Upland, CA · Member since 2012 · 45 posts · 5 votes

Is it me or does anyone feels that the current uptick in real estate valuations in certain markets is not legit?? Meaning, the simple rule of supply and demand is not justified correctly? Are we really running out of inventory that causes the value to rise quickly as they are; while our national unemployment is at 7.5%.

I'm no guru or an expert in economics and frankly, I just started investing in this great business, but I do have some reservations on how values are going up when job markets are still in the hole in certain markets. My general understanding of a valuations indeed comes from the basic rule of supply and demand but I also know that housing is married to the job market e.g more jobs more people will buy. Having said that, why are we seeing a decrease in inventory when the jobs are flat or decreasing in some area. My gut tells me the current values in certain markets are inflated unjustly and I won't be surprise when the market might dip again. I hope I am wrong and all this is just my imagination but if it does dip; I just hope is a small dip because I'm investing as well.

My advice - make you stick to your numbers tightly and look at the surrounding of your subject property.

Any thoughts, or is it just my imagination?

Your feedback is much appreciated

Thanks

Darwin

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  • Lender · Haverstraw, NY · Member since 2009 · 199 posts · 10 votes
    13y

    I agree. This spike in values are due to investor capital. Not home buyers. In many markets prices have increased by double digits year over year. Once the shadow inventory makes its way into the market, I think price increase will slow down (it's not sustainable at this rate) but you will not see price depreciation. As for CA, I don't think they have much lagging inventory compared to its neighbor LV. Both markets experienced double digit price appreciation over the last 18 to 24 months.

  • Homeowner · Reno, NV · Member since 2012 · 8 posts · 2 votes
    13y

    Investors are the bulk of the buyers it seems but also as time goes on more and more of the folks that had to shortsell their house are able to get their credit score back up and qualify for better loan terms.

  • Berkeley, CA · Member since 2013 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    13y

    Steve Stern, so are you saying because Cali doesn't have much lagging inventory that home prices will probably still continue its upwards trend?

  • Lender · Haverstraw, NY · Member since 2009 · 199 posts · 10 votes
    13y

    I'm not an economist but yes Steven Jackson its all supply and demand. Most cities in cali are very strong and will continue in an upward trend.

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