Bay area Housing 2020- Crash or no crash

[Brian Singh]

Just wanted to get a sense of what people are seeing in Bay area and what they think will happen after a few month. Also wanted to see if I am being too negative on bay area and forecasting a 10-15% price drop.

The reason I see a 10 to 15% drop by April 2021 is

1. The virus and unemployment

2. Start-up layoffs

3. H1B ban for next 2 years effectively

4. Tech work from home or anywhere going main stream.

The area I am using as bench marks are

1. San Fran

2. Mountain view

3. Fremont

4. Walnut creek.

Very different demographics in all four and they together represent the Bay area as a whole quite good with the issues highlighted above.

I will write in more details when people write about  their opinion on the points I raised.

I hold no solid stance one way or the other, just want people who are actually investing there give their side of the analysis, so I see if I am thinking correct.

Rents have dropped over 10% for two months now, are property prices next ?

[Tracey Robinson]

“ Bay Area “ is very different in terms of properties, quality of life, amenities, etc depending on exactly where you are talking about. So what will happen to prices in San Francisco may differ from what happens in Mill Valley, Walnut, Creek, Menlo Park etc. 
I predict a substantial price drop in San Francisco, especially in the condo market for multiple reasons. Tech heavy presence in SF will go down as people switch to working remotely and leave . Quality of life in SF continues to decrease with high burden of homelessness, filth, crime ( car breaks in for example ) which will also prompt people to leave. Covid has caused numerous restaurants and businesses to go bankrupt and shut down, the things that drew people to city life are no longer available, that will also cause an exodus, especially with no real end to the SF lockdown in sight. 
The surrounding suburbs probably will see an increase in price, in part due to some people’s desire to flee the city for more personal space, and freedom from some of the negatives that have become all too common in SF in the last few years.