Local Market started to rebound

[Carlos Ptriawan]

I'm trying to continue the good discussion on the "Housing crash" thread that @Greg R. created few months ago and had the number one posts in the history of BP including a very insightful post from @James Hamling. But instead of predicting a crash, it seems the market, at least here locally,starting from January market seems to be warmer again. 

Open House is full of people, DOM is within 2-3 weeks, the price reduction is getting smaller, started seeing a price increase, and sold price with above 
listing is reaching a new high. But not sure about other markets. This is very different than Dec. 2022. 

Looking at the sold price, I found the following algorithm is still working to predict the sold price in our market.
Find the baseline price in 2013, and add between 5-6% every year as appreciation, the range of sold price in 2023 is within 1 sigma deviation of 2023 value. 

I guess in 2023, we will have the following trends:
- stong market rebounds in few appreciation market , in relative to liquidity supply.
- cash flow markets like OH,AL would be the highest/leading this appreciated market for few years (I I know Milwauke is reaching 20% appreciation in 2022).
- but there would be a crash, eventually in a market where STR is saturated
- there could be a crash in the CRE market, esp class A/B MF that started the syndication in 2019 and has to pay their balloon payment this year