Housing crash deniers ???
Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
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The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
I’ll jump on later and destroy your argument, too busy right now doing worthwhile things 😉
Pretty simple concept, but I’ll break it down Barney style for you James. The increase of wealth with the lower-class segment of society is due to the factors that I stated above. I don’t believe they’ll keep it. It will eventually shift back to the top. The rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer.
love your comment about idiocracy. The irony is thick in that one. Funny part is that you don’t even realize it 😂
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Greg, my man, ya gotta stop trying to water your crops with Gatorade....... (if don't get it, ya gotta watch Idiocracy)
Stating people who have gained wealth, are going to spend it, and thus it's "transient", LOL, dude, LOL, my guy, ALL wealth would be "Transient". Exactly what prevents anyone from over spending? Come on, seriously, you knew that whole "Transient Wealth" thing was total BS right, I mean, the moment you typed it you must have said to yourself no way anyone was dumb enough to buy that load of horse cr#p right?
By your reasoning Greg, McDonalds sells "Transient" food, because it's only going to be food for a very short time right. And gas, the pump should be corrected to "Transient" fuel, because it's going to be gone in a matter of miles right.
Not to mention it's wildly arrogant to state all who earned gains on selling there properties the last 2 years are going to burn it. First of all, they had enough intelligence to create the equitable gain in the first place, that shows some level of financial intelligence for both being in that position and then realizing the opportunity. Next, we have every metric showing how LIQUID that entire segment has become during this time, via debt paydown, and transference of said gains into other real estate.
So yet again Greg, you laid out a wildly inaccurate assumption, founded without a sliver of research or facts. inferring people sold there homes, bought a new one, did NOTHING with that $150k gain other then parked it in the bank until they could burn it on what, porno, pizza and beanie babies? Sorry, facts and data show how massively most transferred it into debt paydown and other investments from real estate too stocks, bonds and crypto.
Is it maybe possible the assumptive accusations of what others do with there $ is more reflective of your self actions maybe?
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Ok, your clearly high as a kite and back on complete nonsense trolling, so your block goes back on so have fun Trolly Mc Trollerson, I'm done with ya. Feel free to make your apology any time. Yet again.
It will 100% dry up. The article pointed to a lot of other facts but this is the one that should be front of mind for everybody, or so I believe:
I’m not even going to get into the 51st to 90th percentiles which candidly if you pull the 80-90 percentile out you’d have a similar chart to the bottom 50 percent.
So the bottom 50% of America has as doubled their wealth but it’s so insignificant it needs to be called out in a separate graph. There’s so much wrong and sad about that I’m not even sure where to begin. Also few people realize the 1% has more in common with the 51st percent than the .1%. But those of us in the top 5% should realize we are lumped in with that .1% and the bottom half, is rightfully frustrated and angry. So red wave or not expecting it to continue election after election is just stupid. Right now people are just frustrated with both sides but at some point that will go away and when there are some .1% that can buy companies because they are annoyed - well it’s just a matter of time for push back, real push back
So yes the wealth of the bottom half will disappear - it already did in many ways by going into amazon and other consumer goods. But this won’t be the last time we hear of it or see votes by the bottom half out of frustration.
That's what usually happened after inflation. There's nothing new about that.
For sure there would be huge changes in American lifestyle and perspective after 2022.
You may never read the history book why in the last 25 years countries in Vietnam, China, Indonesia, and India able to reduce poverty in massive numbers and the middle class there is rising so fast.
It's because when they have excess capital (other than the need for food and simple housing) they use it for productive activity, proper education, and to increase productivity.
This is similar to broke people that win the lottery, they burn through the cash and sooner or later will return to where they were prior.
Ok James, event though engaging with you has proven to be an exercise of futility, here it goes...
It's common knowledge that a vast majority of Americans burn through excess money on material nonsense. A popular guideline for emergency savings is to set aside three to six months’ worth of expenses. How many Americans do you think have that in their reserves?
People who win the lotto generally get a lot more than what people got over the last 2 years. With that, 70% of lotto winners go broke in 5 years or less.
Per a previous lotto winner: “after we won the lottery, we bought an eight-bedroom, seven-bath, 10,000-square-foot mansion because we could, and it sounded amazing,” says one past winner. “Well, now we’re selling the eight-bedroom, seven-bath mansion because it’s impractical for a family of four. If only we knew ahead of time that it was one of the things rich people never waste their money on.”
And I never said that all who made gains selling properties in the last 2 years are going to burn it. This is more nonsensical "muddy" James gibberish.
My exact words were: "I would imagine that a majority of this wealth increase was due to all the gov handouts, printing trillions of dollars, etc. I personally think that a lot of this will dry up, I see it as transient wealth."
But I wouldn't expect you to use honesty while trying to prove a point against me.
Truth is that the people who are wise likely made good decisions. The ones who aren't, didn't. There are much more foolish than wise out there - you are a testament to that.
So I stand by my statement and I believe it will prove to be true. Most of the wealth generated in the last couple years will likely shift upwards and the rich will get richer.
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People vote, as they are programed to vote. Don't believe me, read this https://assets.ctfassets.net/q... and then let me know how people vote per there frustrations, it simply does not work that way, it probably should but it doesn't.
People are sheeple in majority part, roughly 90% of citizenship is in this "sheeple" class. Mindlessly trudging headline too headline, instruction too instruction. That's reality.
So this notion of some social uprising against the business class, no, only if the 2% gives a uprising for them to vent will it happen. And in that it's controlled.
Here is reality, we are living in a time of a great consolidation. This is a consolidation of wealth, of power and opportunity. Every month/year one sites the sideline and watches, that bar of entry get's pegged a bit higher, and the sand beneath feet comes a little softer, less solid to leap from. This is not a problem, it is the solution, it's just not your solution. Our country, and world, is ran, dictated and directed by the elite. We all know this yet chug the kool-aid that it can never be spoken of. We all know billionaires direct every commerce action on earth, and that the billionaires own the politicians and political process. We DO have a world government already, it's called Plutocracy.
The only uprising by the "frustrated" has been to loot purses, tv's and booze, that's reality.
The disparity gap will continue to widen because at it's heart, the "frustrated" don't actually want to change this paradigm, they just want the power elite to give them a little better living while being good little sheeple, that's it, nothing of throwing off such chains of financial slavery. Once upon a time I felt empathy for people in such, I then grew up.
The world is ran by $, that's just how it is and that is not going to change in our lifetimes or any to soon come. Fact is right now today we could solve ALL human hunger and homelessness on the ENTIRE PLANET, and do it in a matter of months, fact. All it requires is the worlds billionaires sacrificing to become multi-millionaires, DONE. AND, guess what, there would be enough left over to cure the deficit of ever nation on earth. The top 2% contains THAT MUCH wealth.
So, why does it not happen? Why does the Vatican talk of helping people, but needs YOUR $ to do it? As the house of Windsor globe trots to "help the people" of the common wealth, why does it needs your $ to fund it? And remind me how many are out shaking the gates protesting and demanding a change of this global order........
Your faith in the collective intelligence, foresight and call to action of people is, sadly, misplaced.
The Top 10% "Get It" and will continue to reap the rewards of membership. The rest, well, I believe the saying is "it is what it is".
Wow. @James Hamling I’m not even sure where to start with all the assumptions you have made and absolutely have wrong.
Actually the comment “Your faith in the collective intelligence, foresight and call to action of people is, sadly, misplaced.” Is actually an apt jumping off point.
1) earlier in this very thread you made comments about me perhaps leaning more liberal. This comment implies the same. You are correct in that I don’t side with hard GOP leanings. But that’s about all you have correct. I happen to have just as much issue with the Dems. I have no belief in either party and fully agree it’s being run by the elite - but the world always has been it’s all a question of “degree”.
2) Faith in collective intelligence? Given my early comments it’s interesting you would read or suggest that. But I’ll take it on faith that it’s because yo have some idea I lean liberal. Lets be very clear I think most people understand very little of this world from technology to science to business and finance - that doesn’t make a person I just think it’s a certain reality of this fast evolving world for a large subset of the population. One has to look at only the absolute failure of American public to understand the power of compound interest to know how true it is. So faith in collective population? No not at all. In my idle daydreams I actually would love to take away the right to vote for just an election or two from folks aligned to either party. It’s said a bit tongue in cheek but perhaps it will get the point across that I really side with neither sides absolute policies/platforms.
As to social uprising you read far too much into things as is starting to seem typical. the population interest last all of about 5 seconds. So I agree with some of your points but your points on the elite and the population being led. But you seem to be ignoring the fact that either party is able to lead them so easily because they are all frustrated. We saw that in the 2010 midterms and 2018. And hell even with trump getting into power - people were frustrated and wanted a non-politician. They saw that and bounced back the other way.
So yes people are frustrated and yes they will continue to flop. I happen to believe the dems will hold more power in future years because of the frustration. And frankly given the shifts on the popular vote in recent years that trend should be obvious. Redistricting buys time but thats it. And hell this coming election will likely be more proof it should be an absolute red wave and I think it will be good for the GOP but not as good as it should be given all the context.
As to social uprising. No but will we see push back and change? Absolutely. And the world has seen that many times throughout history when it gets to such a balance. Does the elite still hold power? Of course but in a far more subtle laid back manner.
So yes we agree. but no we really don’t and you need to stop reading into comments thinking I have some side. I work hard to provide and create a strong future for my family. I can control my income and the power that brings. I certainly don’t want or worry about anything political.
I simply read direction and data. Business and money most of all but also where politics and the populace trajectory is. Because it matters but it doesn’t really change anything.
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Given the polarized world I understand your knee-jerk reaction to thinking such was meant, but it was not. I said the "collective" as in both right and left, the both, the collective people, even those of middle, the entirety regardless of leanings.
Best way I can think to say it is an old joke of do you know why it's called right wing or left wing, because each is a side of the same vulture.
Being a bit more international then the average bear I can say this is not a uniquely American experience, the politics of the day is in large part become a binary A/B choice and illusion of choice. So the "sheeple" feel they are part of the "correct" group, and get someone to wag there finger at as the "wrong" group, and those behind the curtain giggle the whole time. This is the story of the day all over the world right now.
Where we seem to differ is in faith of a collective push back by the people. I lost a lot of faith in persons capacity of common sense as they burned our own cities down, destroyed our neighborhoods, harmed our local business's, and for what. It fundamentally made 0 sense, 0. And all just sheepishly looked away, even feared to speak out of the blatant idiocy and childishness of it all. I did, I gave up on the average person, I feel it's past the point of return, I don't think the generation is capable of the necessary common sense.
I stand by my opinion of Plutocracy raging at full tilt. And of the COLLECTIVE, that means left, right and centrist, inability of common-freakin-sense self-thought. Each seems to just be a variance of what echo-chamber which resides within. There is far too much dumb to go around and far too little smart, or just self-thought, just a drop of shared self-thought. No, the masses in large are sheeple and live from what there echo-chamber has directed of the moment. And in no way are those directing towards the actual power centers.
Good example, today with mortgage rates, how much is said of why things were let to run so hot for so long and then to flip to full brakes? Any accountability of playing games with the national economy? No, no focus there at all, none.
Bread and Games....... The arena has changed from gladiators too politicians but it is the same old Bread and Games. And the vast majority lap it up with blind obedience.
By the way, the Fed already did a mini QE thru the Treasury buyback, more Dollars circulated started from this week, I am expecting home growth now. National realtor is expecting the price to go up 3% from now til August 2023.
I know right, this is weird, but IMF is right when they say we have positive economic growth. It's just so weird that we thought we going to have a recession.
Ok fair enough and I don’t necessarily have faith. I just happen to think that more people will continue to shift dems due to “programs” some good some bad. But time will tell on that front.
On a separate note thorough. @Carlos Ptriawan I don’t know if it’s that weird. Things just aren’t as bad as they seem. Job market remains strong as expected: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/0...
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It's just quite surprising still the commander of the ship decided to make U-turn again on Nov 1,2022. The day pivot really started lol
I think it's pretty much because the job market started to look bad that they decide to make the change now.
lol
this conservation is way more fun than the original thread ;-)
Btw looking at the ADP job number statistics, seems like all kinds of professional jobs are falling in number but one group of jobs is increasing in huge numbers: bartender/waitress.
I don't think it's good for economy.
you are looking at just 2-4 year spans. I'm looking at something closer to 8-15 years. The timing has been good for GOP with economy for midterms. I don't believe it will be as red as it should be or that it will last. People are flipping because they are frustrated on economy. They will flip again. Not trying to turn this into a full political discussion but the PA senate race or Georgia Senate race are good examples.
But sure my reality is wrong :). never mind I don't care who wins because it's all more of the same.
at the rate those people are going, they might not even have a party in 8-15 years from now. you must not be aware of the "policies" and agendas that are getting peddled to make statements like the one above. good luck out there, Mike.
Funny I hear the same from the left about the right. I'm guessing you are were surprised by 2020 results then? Well aware of them all. I just don't care about it from either side.. All more of the same.
surprised? what are you talking about? your boy barely pulled ahead in key precincts. some sketchy stuff went down in 2020, that's a fact. thank god we are not ruled by the popular vote electees.