Housing crash deniers ???

[Greg R.]

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

[Greg R.]

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Greg R.:

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed @Michael Wooldridge

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

You are exactly right. The issue is price. I think inflation is just beginning. 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

 I saw that one. It doesn’t surprise me. That said I don’t see us going back to affordability. Not like they are predicting. As we have seen incomes can afford a bit more on housing - Europe is also ample proof of that.

Also rates are likely to hit 5-5.5% by end of next year. So that will help. but meanwhile I expect affordability will stay down. 

By middle of next year inflation will have solved a lot of the problem on many things. We won’t go back down we will inflate out of it a bit and adjust a bit on prices. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed @Michael Wooldridge

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

When Asia country experienced hyperinflation 20 years ago, the real estate price valuation did not go down to historical value, but moving up due to two reasons :

1. primarily because of supply and demand , and new construction cost is also rising.
2. real estate is real asset where it's the best hedge againts inflation, meaning it keeps appreciation against inflation. If inflation goes up by 4%, home price rise by 5%.

Technically, we can only see price going lower if the inventory supply is more than 5-6 months. It's possible if there's forced selling.

The problem when reading contextual history is we always think from the past mirror but we don't see what would happen in the future.

US and western country is the last place on earth that experienced inflation. Inflation has been there in other places of the world and people will adjust their lifestyle to the new reality. It really doesn't mean the price has to crash, because of the two reasons above. If there's no more forced selling there's no more reduced price.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Adding to the data, in all western developed countries in America and European countries. US is still having the cheapest real estate.
The highest is Netherlands and Spain.

After the inflation, there will be a "downgrade" status of the middle class. That happened everywhere. It also means if one single-income family could support the family in the past, now husband and wife have to work to maintain that middle-class status and to be able to afford a house. 

Basically, every adult has to work and you may delay your retirement.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

Adding to the data, in all western developed countries in America and European countries. US is still having the cheapest real estate.
The highest is Netherlands and Spain.

After the inflation, there will be a "downgrade" status of the middle class. That happened everywhere. It also means if one single-income family could support the family in the past, now husband and wife have to work to maintain that middle-class status and to be able to afford a house. 

Basically, every adult has to work and you may delay your retirement.

But that's not what we're seeing. Many people aren't willing to become a slave in order to get a house (hence a decade + low in demand). That's why we're seeing much more multi-generational living scenarios, people coming together and sharing their housing as opposed to going at it on their own. 

Heck, someone in my own family is doing this. They put 2-4 kids in a room, and 2 adults per room. Not that uncommon, especially for low-income folks with large families. That's the way they've been doing it for centuries. 

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Greg R.:

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed @Michael Wooldridge

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

@Bruce Woodruff @Carlos Ptriawan @James Hamling @Account Closed @Michael Wooldridge

Came across an article talking of affordability... "in order to return to the historical average share of household income spent on a mortgage — 22.8% nationally — with mortgage rates at 6.5%, home values would need to fall 24.7% down to $269,686 (putting homes values back to where they were in fall 2020). All of the 50 largest markets would need to see some extent of a price drop to get back to their historic affordability figures, from a 2.4% drop in Hartford to a more than 40% drop in Ogden, Utah."

That's the real issue here - affordability. This is going to be crippling. As a result we're starting to see more multi-generational living scenarios, people living with family members, living with mom & dad, two families sharing a single house. etc. I also heard an interesting perspective that covid lockdowns caused a lot of couples to break up and move into their own place. Now that we're out of the pandemic, a lot of people are back in relationships and are co-habituating.

And national income growth has been strong, but it's been far exceeded by inflation. 

 I saw that one. It doesn’t surprise me. That said I don’t see us going back to affordability. Not like they are predicting. As we have seen incomes can afford a bit more on housing - Europe is also ample proof of that.

Also rates are likely to hit 5-5.5% by end of next year. So that will help. but meanwhile I expect affordability will stay down. 

By middle of next year inflation will have solved a lot of the problem on many things. We won’t go back down we will inflate out of it a bit and adjust a bit on prices. 

 Lol, so not sure why I have to point out the blatantly obvious that NO affordability in an inflationary environment does NOT mean home prices dropping, it means WAGES INFLATING.     So sure, the whole premise of the "only" way to get affordability back in play is home prices drop 20% IF, if wages stay exactly static. That's not gonna happen nor is it happening.     YES, wage inflation IS happening, and is just starting. As I have tried to inform, inflation is NOT a singular event, it's is a SERIES, it has waves. We just moved through the 1st wave and have now entered the 2nd, or depending on how one views it the 3rd wave, which is WAGE INFLATION.     SS just issued out the largest COLA increase in history, what that tell you? They don't do that if wages are not inflating. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

 This chart is showing there's a big problem in TX and FL, but not so much in CA.
When folks moved from CA to TX basically the new migration makes a radical shift in the local real estate market. Maybe TX has to crash like previously discussed.

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

Haha of coz as a citizen I could only believe in authority.

If they say they are going to print money then I will buy the house again (and stock), they say please buy real estate in 2025 but don't buy now, so I wait and listen to them :) in case there's covid version 3.0 there's always something that we don't expect  but that doesnt matter hahahaa

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed

 Call it what you will but so far I’ve been fairly on point in my predictions. I dno’t care about politics. I don’t care about losses it’s just pure data. If october shows Cali is continuing to level out and TX is similar than it’s more on point. 

BTW lay offs have been coming in with the big earnings calls. It’s not mass layoffs like many were expecting. I estimated that to be true also.

The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up. So after October, ifhomes continue to flatline, hopefully inflation continues on same trajection.

If it does yes we will have some stagnation next year with home purchasing picking up in the second half of 2023 as rates begin to drop. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed and @Bruce Woodruff opinion on this. 

 Call it what you will but so far I’ve been fairly on point in my predictions. I dno’t care about politics. I don’t care about losses it’s just pure data. If october shows Cali is continuing to level out and TX is similar than it’s more on point. 

BTW lay offs have been coming in with the big earnings calls. It’s not mass layoffs like many were expecting. I estimated that to be true also.

So Michael and me seem like following data and I personally have no bias, I am ok for a crash/melting up/neutral market ; but I have been following the authority for years for economic trajectory.

See what's holding the housing market pricing is the supply of houses that's extremely limited.
The supply is still good because job market is still very good. 

Job market is good because relatively company still has good future earnings even during the recession, the layoffs are quite minimal so far. 

I truly think this is not traditional inflation becoz people and company have too much money in the last two years.

Yes your Walmart budget expense is increased by $100/mo ; but your actual asset/income may increase to $100k-$500k last two year alone. That's not inflation. Even someone from Idaho asked in BP "hey my equity in my real estate increased by 300k, what shall I do ?"

So Greg if you want 25% haircut in the house price you have to ask 1:4 company to let go of their employee......... 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Greg this link may be useful for you, everyone in USA has their saving/checking increased 3 times in the last two years

https://www.wsj.com/articles/f...

We even have records of lower and middle-class income.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

 Lol, the  Fed can wish all they want, they do not have absolute power to do anything. The Fed said the same thing in 1978 and oooops. We'll see where it actually is in 2025.

[Bruce Woodruff]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

By middle of next year inflation will have solved a lot of the problem on many things.

Says who?

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed and @Bruce Woodruff opinion on this. 
 

@Greg R.:You are absolutely correct. The Fed doesn't know what is going to happen next week, let alone in 3 years. If the "great" Greenspan can't know the future, certainly don't expect the current cast of characters to know.
_______________________________________________________
"As Fed chief, Greenspan's handling of the economy had earned him monikers, including the maestro, the greatest central banker who ever lived and the second-most important person in Washington."

In an interview with CBS he said

" Greenspan said he was aware of "subprime" lending practices where homebuyers got very low initial rates only to see them jacked up later, causing severe payment shock. But he said he didn't initially realize the harm they could do.

"While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late," he said in a CBS "60 Minutes" interview

Greenspan, who ran the central bank for more than 18 years - the second-longest serving chairman in history - left in 2006.

https://www.ocala.com/story/ne...

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed and @Bruce Woodruff opinion on this. 

 Call it what you will but so far I’ve been fairly on point in my predictions. I dno’t care about politics. I don’t care about losses it’s just pure data. If october shows Cali is continuing to level out and TX is similar than it’s more on point. 

BTW lay offs have been coming in with the big earnings calls. It’s not mass layoffs like many were expecting. I estimated that to be true also.

The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up. So after October, ifhomes continue to flatline, hopefully inflation continues on same trajection.

If it does yes we will have some stagnation next year with home purchasing picking up in the second half of 2023 as rates begin to drop. 

@Carlos Ptriawan:  @Michael Wooldridge: Lol, your comment "The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up."

Can we quote you on that? You are missing quite a few disruptors that apparently you aren't thinking about (or don't know). But, that's okay, that's how we gain wisdom, it's by making big mistakes.

[Jamie Parker]

IMO: the market should slow down some due to inflationary spending (free money the government been handing out) and the war in ukraine. Not because of the war but the free money the government has been donating to the efforts(this is not a political post, simple economics). Combine those to with OZ investing. Not against or for either, but the interest rate hike should literally be a little higher. Add to that natural disasters and random things oh and the supply chain situation. And for good measure, to avoid 2008, No doc loans are back, so be prepared for credit default swaps. Overall the confidence in the market is still solid overall IMO

The Housing market has turned down hard. In my market im seeing at at least 15-25% on SFR and about the same on some commercial deals i've been spying personally. Even SFR rental rates are dropping vs a year ago in the same zip codes. In high demand Areas like Nashville (the only one i can recall from first hand account) The insolation from national effects seem good, but in memphis, As i'm still learning what drives the market, in order to hit the swing on t price points with a level of confidence to start a 6-9 month project in today's climate.

[Steven Gesis]

Boom, bust, it happens, not fishing for the bottom is rule #1. #2 no one has the magic ball. Submarkets can shift on a variety of reasons not just macro economics but micro like employers, sure can those be related, yes! I think my statement is if you are disciplined - does not matter up or down, control what you can control! 

[Michael Wooldridge]

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed

 Call it what you will but so far I’ve been fairly on point in my predictions. I dno’t care about politics. I don’t care about losses it’s just pure data. If october shows Cali is continuing to level out and TX is similar than it’s more on point. 

BTW lay offs have been coming in with the big earnings calls. It’s not mass layoffs like many were expecting. I estimated that to be true also.

The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up. So after October, ifhomes continue to flatline, hopefully inflation continues on same trajection.

If it does yes we will have some stagnation next year with home purchasing picking up in the second half of 2023 as rates begin to drop. 

@Carlos Ptriawan:  @Michael Wooldridge: Lol, your comment "The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up."

Can we quote you on that? You are missing quite a few disruptors that apparently you aren't thinking about (or don't know). But, that's okay, that's how we gain wisdom, it's by making big mistakes.

 I’ve been on record here all along there’s almost 100 pages worth of discussion of what I’ve said. so far I’ve been fairly accurate. Far more so than those calling for a bust.

Hell a month ago Carlos was calling for a bust on housing himself. He’s come a little more along as more data comes out to fall closer to where I’m at.

Long story short, east coast remains solid, west coast is normalizing already, inflation from a trajectory stand point is down, jobs will remain strong, and rates will head back down next year.

But short of credit suisse or something in Ukraine going nuts. I stand by exactly what I said which is the housing market will be just fine and bounce back nicely next year. 

People have been predicting doomsday. I have not. And yes quote me on it :) 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

it's not crystal ball, it's from the Fed statement itself that they're going to reduce the rate to 2.5% in 2025.  

😂😂😂

I don't know why you put so much stock into this. Do you think the fed knows what the economy and market conditions are going to look like in 3 years? Who will the president be? Who will have majority in the house/ senate? What kind of new wars/ conflicts are we going to be entangled in? Will there be another pandemic? According to Fauci, Gates, and Biden there will be more. 

In my mind it seems incredibly naïve to think the fed knows what is going to happen in 3 years. Would love to hear @Account Closed and @Bruce Woodruff opinion on this. 

 Call it what you will but so far I’ve been fairly on point in my predictions. I dno’t care about politics. I don’t care about losses it’s just pure data. If october shows Cali is continuing to level out and TX is similar than it’s more on point. 

BTW lay offs have been coming in with the big earnings calls. It’s not mass layoffs like many were expecting. I estimated that to be true also.

The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up. So after October, ifhomes continue to flatline, hopefully inflation continues on same trajection.

If it does yes we will have some stagnation next year with home purchasing picking up in the second half of 2023 as rates begin to drop. 

@Carlos Ptriawan:  @Michael Wooldridge: Lol, your comment "The only thing that will disrupt direction we are heading is outside country impact and/or if inflation picks back up."

Can we quote you on that? You are missing quite a few disruptors that apparently you aren't thinking about (or don't know). But, that's okay, that's how we gain wisdom, it's by making big mistakes.

 I’ve been on record here all along there’s almost 100 pages worth of discussion of what I’ve said. so far I’ve been fairly accurate. Far more so than those calling for a bust.

Hell a month ago Carlos was calling for a bust on housing himself. He’s come a little more along as more data comes out to fall closer to where I’m at.

Long story short, east coast remains solid, west coast is normalizing already, inflation from a trajectory stand point is down, jobs will remain strong, and rates will head back down next year.

But short of credit suisse or something in Ukraine going nuts. I stand by exactly what I said which is the housing market will be just fine and bounce back nicely next year. 

People have been predicting doomsday. I have not. And yes quote me on it :) 

[Account Closed]

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

People have been predicting doomsday. I have not. And yes quote me on it :) 

I can respect a man who sticks to his guns. ;-)

Time will tell.

I went through the gas lines and inflation of the 70's, I made it through the Jimmy Carter years, I was there for the Mt St Helens explosion in 1980, I went through Black Monday in '87, I went through the Dot Com bubble in 2000, I made it through 9/11, I lived through the bear market and crash of 2008, the S&P crash in 2020, and so on and so on.

And this time, as always we are told, "this time is different". Yep, different decade but same old crisis after crisis. They do mix it up once in a while to crash the economy in a new way, but the other side seems to always come out ahead. I think they call it "shorting the market"

You just have to know, in advance, which part of the market they mean this time. Will it be real estate, stocks, oil, commodities, diesel, currency, office space, shipping, travel, FInTech, tax increases, debt overload, interest rates, rare earth minerals, nuclear "accident", trade embargoes, solar flare, power grid failure, drought, flooding, earthquakes, volcanoes, a disastrous cauliflower shortage? Who knows?

Regardless, I just keep on buying houses. ;-)

[Greg R.]

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

@Bruce Woodruff

And again, I know you and @Michael Wooldridge have your crystal balls and are predicting rates and inflation coming down in a year or so, but I'm not confident that's the way it's going to go down.  

People have been predicting doomsday. I have not. And yes quote me on it :) 

I can respect a man who sticks to his guns. ;-)

Time will tell.

I went through the gas lines and inflation of the 70's, I made it through the Jimmy Carter years, I was there for the Mt St Helens explosion in 1980, I went through Black Monday in '87, I went through the Dot Com bubble in 2000, I made it through 9/11, I lived through the bear market and crash of 2008, the S&P crash in 2020, and so on and so on.

And this time, as always we are told, "this time is different". Yep, different decade but same old crisis after crisis. They do mix it up once in a while to crash the economy in a new way, but the other side seems to always come out ahead. I think they call it "shorting the market"

You just have to know, in advance, which part of the market they mean this time. Will it be real estate, stocks, oil, commodities, diesel, currency, office space, shipping, travel, FInTech, tax increases, debt overload, interest rates, rare earth minerals, nuclear "accident", trade embargoes, solar flare, power grid failure, drought, flooding, earthquakes, volcanoes, a disastrous cauliflower shortage? Who knows?

Regardless, I just keep on buying houses. ;-)  

Mike, what do you see as the biggest opportunity in 2023?