BRRR vs Flip - FIRST TIMER[Calc Review] Help me analyze this deal

[Brad Gilboe]

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Hey Gang,

I have an option to buy this home in Michigan, my home state, from my Uncle. It's a standard cosmetic fixer because it has great windows, brick home, brand new roof and new water heater. Upgrades include refinishing hardwood, new kitchens/bathrooms and finishing the 1000 sq ft basement. Without realtors I could buy for $130,000 and a GC i trust said $40,000 renovation budget. ARV is $210-215,000 with finished basement.

Following the BRRR, I will be operating at a minor loss if i pull out all the money on the REFI (approx $175,000). Using a conservative rental analysis, $1,400/mo is the rental income. It could be a little higher, but im barely breaking even at that rent. I do have professional property mgmt that could manage, but my other 3 units I have been having family manage.

If the area is appreciating, should i pull out less money so it cash flows slightly?  Or should i just flip it for a potential $30,000 profit?  I apologize if this is a pedestrian post, but im wondering if im analyzing this properly, should just wait to buy a better deal OR if i'm hesitant  and scared just being an out of state investor.

For what it's worth, I am an active realtor in Los Angeles and i have a SFR and Duplex in Michigan that are performing very well. This would be my first BRRR or out of state flip, so part of me is happy to just get my feet wet and make a little money. Also if i should phrase future posts differently, feel free to let me know.