Analysis Paralysis - Please Help

Analysis Paralysis - Please Help

Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes

Hi BP Community:

I am about to finally purchase my first SF rental property. The investment doesn't pass the 2% or even the 1% rule (hard to find these days) but the overall performance looks better than what I have found and analyzed so far. The property is in a college town in mid-west  (very low vacancy rate, very high rental demand), tenanted, 4 master bedrooms, each room is rented at $500 a month (a total of $2,000 monthly income). This is a relatively new construction (2016) and the seller just accepted the offer for $210K. Utilities are paid by the tenants.  I am planning to take a loan with 25% down payment. Here is a summary of my analysis. I appreciate any insights or comments. Please let me know if I am missing anything and how you rate this investment. Thanks!

Performance
Total Cash Needed $56,500
Monthly Income $2,000
Monthly Expenses $1,560
Monthly Cashflow $440
Pro Forma Cap Rate 6.9%
NOI $14,580
Cash on Cash ROI 9%
Purchase Cap Rate 6.9%
Yield 14.0%
Debt Service Coverage Ratio 1.57
Purchase Estimates Amount
Purchase Price $210,000
Purchase Closing Cost $4,000
After Repair Value $210,000
Estimated Repair Cost $0

Loan Details Amount
Down payment of purchase price 25%
Loan Interest Rate (%) 4.250%
Loan Amount $157,500
Amortized Over How Many Years? 30
Income Amount
Total Gross Monthly Rent $2,000
Fixed Landlord-Paid Expenses Amount
Electricity $0
PMI $0
HOAs $0
Property Taxes $215
Water & Sewer $0
Garbage $0
Monthly Insurance $90
Other Monthly Expenses $0
Variable Landlord-Paid Expenses Amount
Vacancy (%) 5%
Capital Expenditures (%) 5%
Repairs and Maintenance (%) 5%
Property Management Fees (%) 9%
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Palmdale, CA · Member since 2017 · 83 posts · 39 votes
8y

I don't see anything missing, and I agree with the math.  Overall I like it.  If 9% and $440 is good enough for the $56k that will be tied up then do it.

The only two risky things I see is 5% vacancy realistic with college students?  What about during the summer?  The other one is expenses are at 40%, which seems justifiable with new construction, but maybe run your numbers with 50% expenses and higher vacancy to see if you could weather that storm.  

Good luck!

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  • Palmdale, CA · Member since 2017 · 83 posts · 39 votes
    8y

    I don't see anything missing, and I agree with the math.  Overall I like it.  If 9% and $440 is good enough for the $56k that will be tied up then do it.

    The only two risky things I see is 5% vacancy realistic with college students?  What about during the summer?  The other one is expenses are at 40%, which seems justifiable with new construction, but maybe run your numbers with 50% expenses and higher vacancy to see if you could weather that storm.  

    Good luck!

  • Investor · Kennedale, TX · Member since 2016 · 219 posts · 349 votes
    8y

    It seems a little shaky to me. I might do a deal at 9% return but it would make me nervous. I try to shoot more for 15% or greater before I move forward. Example: we bought a house for $158k, $31600 down (20%), and I think closing was $3-5k. We also spent about $10k to upgrade both bathrooms. The house is now worth $200-210k. Total in was about $47k and we were making $600 a month on it. That gave us a 15% ROI. The problem came when the tax man showed up and raised our taxes $200 a month. Now we're making only 10% ROI. I'm still glad we bought the house because it's right next door. What would you do if this happened to you? Something to think about.

  • Developer · Boston, MA · Member since 2017 · 29 posts · 21 votes
    8y

    @Sean Pour Overall I think this is an okay deal if things stay strong but like some of the other folks said, I'd be a little concerned about there not being enough meat on it to weather 

    Have you looked into all the rental comps carefully, would there be an opportunity to raise rents at some point in the near future to $550 a room without jeopardizing vacancy? 

  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y
    Thanks Derek. Can you clarify what you mean by 40% expense as I am seeing that my total expenses are $1560 per month for a rent of $2000.
  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y
    Thanks Max. Yes, the rent has the potential to go up to $550 in the near future, without impacting vacancy rate. probably next year. In terms of summer vacancy, 12 month contracts are a norm in town.
  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y
    Thanks Alan for sharing your experience. We will raise the rent in the next couple of years that raises the cash on cash to 13%. Would that be enough you think?
  • Investor · Kennedale, TX · Member since 2016 · 219 posts · 349 votes
    8y

    I would definitely see if I could raise the rent some (maybe $25 a unit) to start with. If vacancy rates are as low as you say this shouldn't be an issue. That would make the deal look better. I would love to get into a multi-unit building like this but renting to college kids would make me nervous. I would require renters have insurance and I would also inspect them every couple of months to make sure they weren't trashing them out.

  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y

    @Account Closed  I have considered shorter term loans. I have looked at 15 year, the interest rate is not much lower, is about 4.125% (given the investment property) and the cash flow becomes almost zero.

  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y

    @Account Closed Thanks Marvin. I will look into the 10 year ARM. I am not sure I understand what you mean by getting money back at closing. Do you mean I will need less cash to close with 10 year ARM? Thanks again for the comments.

  • Orange, CA · Member since 2017 · 25 posts · 5 votes
    8y

    @Alan Pederson Thanks Alan. Insurance requirements and the inspections are great suggestions. I will have to look at rental comps again. What vacancy rate do you expect in college towns? The 5% number is what I had in mind as a rule of thumb for deal analysis. 

  • Palmdale, CA · Member since 2017 · 83 posts · 39 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Sean Pour:

    Thanks Derek. Can you clarify what you mean by 40% expense as I am seeing that my total expenses are $1560 per month for a rent of $2000.

    As a general rule of thumb you can assume 50% of rent will go to expenses.  Thats NOT including the mortgage.  Its not a hard and fast rule, I hear a lot of talk of multi-families and apartments being more like 60%+.  Thats why I think you could justify the 40% you have (without mortgage) with it being a new house. 

  • Investor · Kennedale, TX · Member since 2016 · 219 posts · 349 votes
    8y

    Sean, I just read a post from someone that did pretty good buying a rental in a college town and then a few years later the college changed their requirements and now Freshmen and Sophomores are required to live on campus. That cut his available tenant pool. Lots of good info on here. I don't know what the vacancy rate a college town would have but I'm sure there would be plenty of interest in the property if they're priced right. I know my step-daughters stayed in some pretty nice places when they went to college. One went to Texas Tech and the other one went to UNT. My wallet still hurts from those girls.

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