Nervous to 'pull the trigger'

[Mike Hibbs]

Hi BP, Long time 'reader/follower/stalker' first time poster.

I've been a RE agent for four years, and have worked with investors in the past.  The past 2 months my wife and I have decided to begin looking for a home to flip.  Here is what I found...

Full brick Ranch 4 Bed, 2 Bath 1,900 sq built 1960 Asking is $129,900 -- DOM 2

AVM conservatively $225,000 up to $250,000 (recent foreclosure flip comp sold at $240,000)  The area is HIGHLY desirable.  I've driven by the home, and it looks like the ugly overgrown house on the block...aka perfect investment!

I will be viewing the property this afternoon with several other agents/investors.  (elderly owners limited viewings)  From speaking with the listing agent, the only 'known' issue is 'bow' in the living room where a grand piano has been sitting for many years and the home is dirty.

AC unit replaced 2000, unknown age of roof.

Finally to my question, I've read J Scotts book, but I'm not 100% comfortable with the estimating part.  My contractor connections are unable to view home with me.  The listing agent (and I) are confident the home will have several offers today.  

I've ran the numbers and used $50,000 as reno costs (which I thought would be be high?) and the profit was acceptable to me ~$20,000.  

Would you take this investment?

Thank you BP for the advice.

[Joseph Ball]

I think $20K is pretty thin for an investment (risk) that size. If you made a slight error, $20K could evaporate quickly.