Question about values after a natural disaster

[Dennis Smith]

I own an investment property in Tampa (at least I hope I still do after Milton goes through but we are not in a flood zone).

I was wondering where home prices go on functional homes following a large natural disaster like a flood, fire or hurricane.

I was thinking prices would go up shortly after the disaster since many other homes were damaged or destroyed, therefore supply is low and demand is high.

The reason I ask is because I have a refi coming up following a fix & hold purchase. How long can/should I wait for the appraised value to change, and will it go up or down?

[Mike H.]

I can tell you that after ian the prices definitely went up.  But here is why I don't always view historical trends as the way to predict whats going to occur today and why I don't know if I'd say prices will go up. There are different factors in play.

When Ian hit, you had people moving to florida in droves. Low taxes. Better weather. Ability to work remotely so they could keep their jobs and live anywhere.  But you also had reasonable insurance rates and the thinking after ian was that it was a once in a lifetime storm.

Now florida seems to be getting these hurricanes every couple of years.  And they're about to  have a second one hitting within a month after the first one hit.  People are starting to believe this global warming thing is actually changing weather patterns (even though they've been told for years it was going to happen) and I think you're going to start see migration.

If they could fix the insurance rates, that would help stem some of the migration. But how many times do you want to deal with having these storms coming at you and not knowing whether this was going to be the one that takes your home out?  

To me, florida is on a hold pattern because of the uncertainty of what people are going to do given this weather and the insurance rates.  Its getting to the point where the rates almost have to be so astronomical that people simply can't afford them. 

So while the previous storms have created upward pressure on pricing. I just don't know if this one is going to be the same.  I think you may have people really start to take stock in whether the great florida weather is worth the cost and headache in dealing with the storms.

2 major hurricanes in a matter of a month? I wouldn't want to keep dealing with that...... And I don't see people up north looking at florida as the place to retire any more specifically because of all these hurricanes......