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Has anyone reviewed S2A modular? Just doing my diligence
There is a new green modular company out of hemet, ca. S2A Modular Went thru their presentation yesterday. Just wanted to see if anyone else has looked into them. Supposedly they can build a custom or one of their predesigned floor plans with tesla powerwall, graphene solar panels for a "net-zero" or "net-positive" house for $165 a sq ft. First units out by 2021.
I first saw the ad on FB and so happened was thinking about building my next house. Love the designs so I contacted them on their site, but never heard back. I guess they are only looking for investors now. Attended the webinar last week and here are my thoughts:
- Numbers look good, in fact too good. A $150k investment will turn in to $2M in 5 years? I bet many banks will eager to finance, assuming they are convinced :)
- When you haven't even built the first house and all you can show for are computer generated images and some rough floor plans, but are taking investors money to expand in the country? That to me they are not focusing on the products. They are only trying to generate enough noise so that they can sell the company in a few years for some rediculous amount. In fact I heard the CEO talked about selling the company in 3-5 years during the webinar.
- Anyone in CA have access to the land record to see if they really purchased the land where they said they are going to build the MEGA factories? In MA anything you are planning to build you need to submit a plan to the local city to have it approved. Those plans can be found on the city's web page. If CA works the same way then maybe people can see the proposed plan of the factory they are planning to build?
- I hope I am wrong as I do like the design and the idea. I guess only time will tell but my gut feeling says stay away.
Again these are only my personal opinions.
I'm getting ready to invest and doing a final search for "complaints" before I pull the trigger. Here's why I think I'm gonna do it....although I do wish I had a partner to share the $150k with. LOL. A little less exposure, but potentially a lot less reward.
1. I was looking into adding a 'granny flat' to my yard and have been looking into various modular builders for a year or two. That's how I came upon the webinar and then got sucked into the investment numbers.
2. There have been permitting issues with Hemet, CA factory so it hasn't broken ground yet. As a "make good" to start repaying the capital investment of those investors, something like 10 or 15% of all future sales (all locations, i believe) will be paid to the Hemet owners as a "licensing fee" so maybe that location will never be built. Who knows.
3. In Patterson, CA supposedly it is almost sold out and it is about to break ground. Apparently the mayor has fast-tracked permits and all the regulation stuff in an attempt to bring jobs/money to the town. So, I feel better about that actually getting built and being in production by Spring/Summer 2021.
3. Yes, the numbers sound too good to be true. And maybe they are... but if I get my investment back and "anything" above that, I'll consider it a worthwhile experience. I don't have a lot of opportunities to "maybe" earn a few million over the next few years and leaving this money in the stock market could earn maybe 20-30% if things go well, but I doubt that will happen. So, although I don't want to lose any of my money, the opportunity cost is too high for me to ignore. I will still be able to eat if I lose my investment, but if it pays off well, i'll be eating in a lake house and without any of the mortgages I currently have. ;-)
4. I'm kinda hoping they do sell for a ridiculous amount over the next year (or any time after I officially become an owner) because then I'll just get paid out even sooner...so that doesn't seem like a bad thing.
Maybe I'm being naïve but I'm an optimist and a risk taker so...fingers crossed. ;-)
I was attracted by their marketing/promotion as well. It's a great story and product we all want. I wanted it to be true. I did significant DD. Unfortunately, IMO, to date it is simply marketing and promotion and it has only succeeded in raising money from investors that want the story to be true. As always, if it sounds too good to be true it normally is too good to be true.... imo.....
Where were these photos from? Patterson or Hemet?
Originally posted by @Raul Lara:You were right, @Paul Doer. mostly grading at this point.
We did drive by in Patterson on 12/18/20 and only some grading has happened so far. Supposedly, they will start after the holidays and the April 21 date is still on track for production.
I'll also note that since finding this thread, I've had a few conversations with people directly and the overall consensus is that there isn't anything bad about the company or any major red flags. The biggest "concerns" are that they're moving slow in getting the factories set up and the ROI promises seem too good to be true. But nothing has really deterred me so I think I'm moving forward. I hope this is a good decision! ;-)
Like many on this thread, I've done a significant amount of DD. I really like the concept and I really wanted this to be an investment opportunity I could be comfortable with. Unfortunately, I did not find any comfort level whatsoever. Enormous red flags exist all over the place.
Originally posted by @Scott Sprague:
Like many on this thread, I've done a significant amount of DD. I really like the concept and I really wanted this to be an investment opportunity I could be comfortable with. Unfortunately, I did not find any comfort level whatsoever. Enormous red flags exist all over the place.
What do you think worst case scenario is? Do you think the entire investment will be worth zero in a few years? Or do you have another 'likely outcome' that you foresee based on your research? Every person I've talked to has said "Well, they'll probably do fine and you'll probably make some money...but not as much as they claim." or "...but it'll take a while..." or something like that. That is a risk level I'm comfortable with. I'm waiting for someone to tell me they think my $150k will be worth zero if I move forward...
Red flags for me include:
- Per the PPM, it's a $15m raise and $30m valuation for each megafactory location. The minute after your $150k investment is made, theoretically it is worth $75k to you and S2A owns the remaining $75k. A $30m valuation for a factory location that has produced nothing nor is even built yet with a 50% equity position for S2A is aggressive to say the least.
- A company representative informed me that there are no institutional, p/e or v/c firms as participating investors. If the returns proposed by S2A were even fractionally attainable, the big boys would be all over this, imo. Instead, the capital raised is coming from private investors that have been solicited for investment via social media. Red flag for me.
- My research on the individual executive management team members cannot confirm that any have experience with a venture of this magnitude. It appears that many are concurrently doing other work in addition to S2A.
The list goes on. Again, I really thought this was a great idea and I really wanted to be comfortable. Unfortunately I am not. My mind could be changed AFTER they have a factory operational for a year. Today, my $150k is far better invested elsewhere.
Originally posted by @Scott Sprague:
Red flags for me include:
- Per the PPM, it's a $15m raise and $30m valuation for each megafactory location. The minute after your $150k investment is made, theoretically it is worth $75k to you and S2A owns the remaining $75k. A $30m valuation for a factory location that has produced nothing nor is even built yet with a 50% equity position for S2A is aggressive to say the least.
- A company representative informed me that there are no institutional, p/e or v/c firms as participating investors. If the returns proposed by S2A were even fractionally attainable, the big boys would be all over this, imo. Instead, the capital raised is coming from private investors that have been solicited for investment via social media. Red flag for me.
- My research on the individual executive management team members cannot confirm that any have experience with a venture of this magnitude. It appears that many are concurrently doing other work in addition to S2A.
The list goes on. Again, I really thought this was a great idea and I really wanted to be comfortable. Unfortunately I am not. My mind could be changed AFTER they have a factory operational for a year. Today, my $150k is far better invested elsewhere.
Thanks, Scott. That is helpful feedback. I wish I had a better place to invest my $150k. I mean, I can leave it where it is and continue to earn the nice return it's been getting this year...but I don't know if the 2021 stock market is going to do as well...and there is nothing else available to me that has the possibility of turning into even half a million over the next few years... I guess that's not really a good reason to take this kind of risk...but if I don't, I think I'll always regret it. Ugh, decisions, decisions.
@scott
@Scott Sprague @Kris Miranda
Scott, Very smart D&D and I have done the same. Bottom line is that non of the big players and people that are a lot smarter than all of us want nothing to do with this investment. If you all look hard enough at the CEO you will see reasons why he left the Chicago area after his condominium venture went south. He made a lot of money but screwed a lot of investors in the process. Hes next deal with REO's was a complete flop and still is. He talks a smooth game like Trevor Milton and boy is his company a disaster.
Anybody that tells you like a guarantee on what your investment will bring you is a complete joke. The only reason he does not have to give forward looking statement disclaimers is because they aren't publicly traded. Its your money Kris Miranda but listen to Scott, he has probably done at least as much research as I have or more. All of the CEO's statements are like a matter of fact, when the only matter of fact is jack squat. They don't have ONE place running , yet he would have you think they are building factories like Amazon. I wish you well but I think your $150k will better better suited with a company like Apple or Nvidia, companies that are truly changing the world and will continue too. Good Luck to you.
P.S. The scam he ran with his ridiculous REO auction company was this. He tried to make people believe he was this huge real estate auction company and hiring all these "National Directors" when all they were was simple agents in their respective locations. His listings were such a joke it was actually embarrassing but they did it without shame. He had a Chinese lady who worked for him in California that sued him, I found that as well. It was a case where she said he offered her more shares of his ******** company in exchange for sex. She refused and left the company. I read the briefs. He truly is a "Trevor Milton" . One poster here also said that the LLC listing of his company comes back to a small humble home in California. They do not even have a company building or office location.
To name a few:
https://unicourt.com/case/ca-s...
https://www.ripoffreport.com/r...
https://unicourt.com/case/ca-s...
This one is hilarious https://www.prnewswire.com/new... their very own news release....
Here was his "big" news when he let one company go to form another loser. Like they just bought a huge asset. https://www.prnewswire.com/new...
I will post more when I get a chance....you have to look hard but you'll find it.
Very interesting thread. They have an incredible challenge in front of them and I hope they can accomplish their goal. The more successful modular manufacturing plants we have, the better the industry gets. Getting a new modular factory off the ground is an incredible amount of work and takes an incredible amount of capital. I know this first-hand.
I watched their capital-raising video, that someone above posted. They have some very lofty goals. Some of the projected numbers he threw out there have some validity to them; and some of them are going to be very difficult to attain.
As soon as they are operational, they'll find that manufacturing modular boxes that that are well-constructed to go down the road at 65 mph and then be stacked to become a four-story structure, while maintaining quality, is an entire challenge, all on its own.
One person, in a previous thread, stated that modular isn't well-built. There are a few commercial modular factories in this country that build a very good product. The word modular conjures up the vision of a doublewide trailer house; but that's not what's being constructed in the factories anymore.
@Branden Bestgen
Agree Brandon.
There are some individuals across threads that have it in their minds that modular = low quality, end of story.
I figure it comes from one of three places, either they confuse modular with manufactured/mobile home or the have had experience with a poor builder and likley an older build, or they are involved in the stick build construction process and take joy in denigrating competing processes.
Research is out there on how modular homes stand up better to extreme weather, are built in great quality due to control we manufacturing processes, and can (not always but can) come in cheaper due to efficiencies of scale and lower operating costs as well as shorter build times that lead to lower bank payments.
There is definitely confusion in the marketplace when it comes to manufactured homes, AKA mobile homes or trailer houses. Those homes are built, in a very cheap way, to comply with the federal HUD code. I started buying mobile home parks 24 years ago, and I've seen a lot of crazy things. I've seen mobile homes with exterior walls that are constructed of 2" x 1.5" studs. They're cheap to buy, but incredibly expensive to heat or cool.
From a real estate investor perspective, there are several advantages to a modular-built building. The first, is the speed to market. Right now, I'm building a 42-unit apartment complex in Rapid City, South Dakota, that will be finished within 180 days, start to finish. I've been investing in real estate for 24 years and I have done a number of 1031 exchanges. I've never had the opportunity to 1031 into a brand new building, because it wasn't practical to build a brand new building in six months; but it is with modular.
That timeframe is achievable because the entire building is being constructed in the factory, at the same time the site work, foundation, and utility installations are being completed. The rooms will be completely finished inside the factory. The appliances and furniture will also be installed in the factory. As soon as the modular units are transported to the job site, the entire 3-story building will be standing within about 7 days. From a concrete foundation, to a 3 story building in seven days is a pretty cool process to watch!
Since the rooms are finished when they arrive, the only interior finish work that needs done, is to connect the MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing) system in the corridor and finish out the corridor. They'll be installing the exterior EFIS (Dryvit) in the factory also, which will help me avoid having to pay for an expensive scaffolding setup on site.
From my perspective, as an investor, being able to get my building completed faster means I get the units rented quicker and I can stabilize the rent roll faster; moving from a construction loan to a less expensive term loan. That additional revenue can add up fast. If I can finish the building six months faster than stick build, that will equate to several hundred thousand dollars in additional revenue, that I could never recover if I built it the old fashioned way.
I'll also be able to eliminate expensive change orders. Anyone who's been around commercial construction knows that GC's make their high margin money on change orders. Modular eliminates that because 100% of the project is designed up-front. There are a lot of GC's who do not like modular because of this fact alone; they know they won't be making money on change orders.
It is a lot more work, up-front, to get everything dialed in, but the process is quicker and much more efficient.
@Branden Bestgen
You have managed to 1031 into a new build? I have been looking at that a little but from what I was understanding it wasn't allowed/couldn't be done. I would really like to learn more from you on that if possible
I am in the same boat, although very much newer to the field. I am contracting to build out 5 modular duplexes on a lot, just finished getting my ducks in a row on the site improvements and utilities. Once I sign on the dotted line in January my first duplexes should be up and rentable in March/April. I am doing this in two phases so I can first prove out the model to some potential investors and then complete phase 2 and from there the intent it to build out several more modular duplex communities.
Financing is going to be great from a draw perspective. While I will have an initial draw to pay for the site improvements including foundation, the biggest draw, the house itself isn't pulled until the home is completely built at factory and ready for delivery. Once installed and buttoned up and connected to utilities the third draw is paid out.
Effectively to me this means that I almost don't care about the interest for the construction loan. The time period for the majority of the dollars (home itself) between draw to refinance to perm is so short it doesn't matter much.
White my goal being 100 units of quality newer build in 3 year across several cities for greater security I have found modular multifamily to be a great play.
That said, I have yet to complete my first one, before this my experience is 1 long term rental and 1 flip so... Maybe I will fall on my face but the numbers and process seem to work out at least for multifamily. I can't get the numbers to work out for modular single family homes, not when my competition is developers that have complete vertical integration and the cost efficiencies of scale.
Some recent posts have promoted the concept of modular construction and the advantages it offers. I certainly agree that modular can be a very attractive option for construction. However, is S2A able to be the big player in this arena as they are promoting themselves? I'm not convinced that they can achieve what they say they will. More likely is that they solicit investment from those individuals that want to believe the S2A story but they will never be able to provide a return to them.
@Scott Sprague I've sat in on the presentations those on this thread have referenced. What I see is a lot of hype but nothing concrete. No solid plans, timelines, pricing, etc... At this time I would say no S2A is not a player. I do like that they continue to get messaging out about modular because a big issue is financing and maybe if enough get some education then overall life gets easier from that perspective. However if they do fall on their face that could have a chilling effect as well.
There are plenty of players out there though. You could replicate everything that S2A is touting with another builder channel.
@Branden Bestgen and @David Edwards - thanks so much for your inputs.
I am most similar to David in terms of prior exp and current aspirations... trying to get a medium-ish project (44 residential townhomes, arranged in mostly fourplexes, plus 1 clubhouse) off the ground in Cali on some land I own but it is very embryonic, as yet, haha.
After looking for about a year at S2A, I am also leaning away from them. After researching quite a bit, I decided that finding architects and a modular build consultancy and arranging the GC myself is probably the way to go. I liked the idea at first that S2A would do everything in-house since I am not a big developer, but then you are beholden to one group... convenience and profit are always inversely related, after all. So probably best to just get your site work arranged, get your own plans and shop around to different factories...
To build a new building, or remodel an existing building, you would use what is called a 1031 Improvement Exchange. You would have to utilize a Qualified Intermediary, that is familiar with improvement exchanges, to do it.
Originally posted by @Nicholas Ethan:
I'm also in search of a modular solution in Utah. I'm surprised the industry is still ten years behind in regards to the green initiative. I produced a building green TV series back in 2007 and the costs/technology hasn't progressed near as much as expected. As far as costs go, $150 to $250 is fairly reasonable depending on location. People are getting gutted left and right with the housing and building boom.
I was initially leaning towards modular to reduce some of the lift of the sub-contractors, but after some due diligence it looks like there is still quite a bit of onsite work required after framing.
Have you heard of Zip Kit Homes in Utah? They have some cool stuff: https://www.zipkithomes.com/
Originally posted by @Alice Huang:Originally posted by @Nicholas Ethan:I'm also in search of a modular solution in Utah. I'm surprised the industry is still ten years behind in regards to the green initiative. I produced a building green TV series back in 2007 and the costs/technology hasn't progressed near as much as expected. As far as costs go, $150 to $250 is fairly reasonable depending on location. People are getting gutted left and right with the housing and building boom.
I was initially leaning towards modular to reduce some of the lift of the sub-contractors, but after some due diligence it looks like there is still quite a bit of onsite work required after framing.Have you heard of Zip Kit Homes in Utah? They have some cool stuff: https://www.zipkithomes.com/
I have! I’ve actually stayed in one of their completed homes (airbnb). They do nice work.
@Nicholas Ethan
Nice! Yeah I’d love to get their homes but they only ship up to 500 miles
@Mark Caudill
I listened to the S2A presentation yesterday as well. Very impressive. Cost was higher than I hoped, but I believe this could be a Tesla-like industry disrupted over the next 20-30 years. I’d love to see a video of your tour and hear of your experience in Hemet.
@Scott Sprague
Thank you for your perspective as a developer. Living in the South, I was hopeful, but a bit disappointed in the overall price/sqft. Building a modular home should be discounted more than the proposed 15% as mentioned on the webinar. If they could bring that price point down to a level slightly higher than other modular companies, it would become a major industry disruptor IMO. The home designs were stunning and the technology of the homes would be remarkable for younger home buyers.
@Raisa Rodriguez they are opening a factory in Florida