OPINIONS on the Seattle real estate peaking?

[Blake King]

Ive been listening through all of the bigger pockets podcasts from newest to oldest and I got to episode 188 today. If anyone remembers this episode they talked a lot about market cycles and all that. I am 20, just graduating college, and very interested in real estate and investing. After listening to this episode there were a lot of valid points regarding our area reaching its peak. The fact that houses are selling in days, and that everyone and their mother seems to be wanting to invest, being two of those. Do you guys think, as a young investor wanting to start, it would be better to focus on purely saving up cash, in anticipation for the bubble to burst, and then in however many years, have cash on hand to start scooping up some properties? I am eager to get started, but don't want to get crushed so early on. I would appreciate your opinions and thoughts on this! I know nothing is certain, so just thoughts and opinions :) Thanks everyone!

[Natalie Kolodij]

@Blake King 

I feel like the answers you received got a little off course. 

I am actually in the same position- where I'm looking to do a live in property for my first investment in Snohomish county. I'm on the fence between MFH and a live in fix/flip. 

• Washington has a first time home buyer's grant that allows you to purchase a property with 0% down. It rolls your down payment into your mortgage as a second mortgage at 0% interest. You must attend a 5 hour course to qualify, but the course was really helpful and it at least gives you another option. 
• I do actually think we are fairly close to the peak in this market. I don't think we'll drop any where near 2008, and historically we've gone up overall 3% annually, but I don't think 1-2 years from now we'll be in as hot of a market. This summer the average Days on Market was about 2 weeks. I think we'll still have a good market, just not necessarily that hot- which if your plans lays in a flip, may be a consideration. 
• We don't have a ton of multi family in this area, and a lot of it is 100+ years old. Make sure you take that into account when calculating if the property will actually cash flow. Properties this age tend to require more capital expense budget. 
• Also, I love Everett and work here actually- but there are still very much pockets of super high crime right next to gentrified areas. You've got to become really familiar with it on a block-by-block basis almost. It switched over fairly quickly. 
• If you find something in the city of Snohomish the W/S/G will be much higher than outside of the actual city. 
• I my self am looking at anywhere in Snohomish county for Multi family- but Monroe and Marysville seem less untapped than Everett. They're less developed as well, so likely won't appreciate as quickly. 
• If you're looking at doing something like a live in flip or BRRR strategy instead, I'd just make sure your profit margins are great enough that if the market cools a little it would still be profitable. If in today's market your comps would net you $15k...I'd walk away because if we do cool down a little it may not be profitable at all when you sell. However if it will net...$50k....you will likely still be okay.

That's my .02 for what it's worth don't feel free to hesitate to reach out.