Expected losses on 1st position fractional trust deeds

[Dean Ng]

I come from the world of stock and bond investing, and am looking to diversify with fractional trust deeds purchased from a HML. I'm considering 1st position TDs with <70% LTV. The RE used as collateral are either SFH, multi-fam, or small commercial (like a small retail store), and all in Calif. Can someone with a lot of experience in TDs and stock-index ETFs compare these two investments in terms of risk-adjusted returns? If a beginner buys TDs as described in this post, and they yield 10.5%, what type of losses should be expected over the long run? I've done a lot of reading and no one ever discusses losses, but surely there will be some? And given that risk-free Treasuries pay 5.3% now, is a 5% premium over that worth it?