Top 3 Reasons Flippers Fail

Top 3 Reasons Flippers Fail

Real Estate Agent · Mesa, AZ · Member since 2020 · 46 posts · 76 votes

At the end of almost every podcast for many years, they used to ask, "What separates those that succeed from those that fail?" or something along those lines. 

Over the years I've worked with somewhere in the range of around 20 flippers. For context I am a retail real estate agent. Generally speaking the flippers buy properties from wholesalers and I am not involved until sometime after they purchase the property. I only have a limited perspective, but from my point of view, these are the top 3 reasons flippers fail. 

#1) They are too greedy

In flipping you can sometimes make a lot of money. But on average, you might make $20-$30k on an average deal. I know sometimes you make more and inevitably somebody will comment they make $100,000 on every house, but in my experience $25,000 is a good expectation for an average budget flip.

However, most people, usually on their first flip, find this number to be not enough. They don't care about comps, they don't care about market, they just want to make more. So, they insist on listing their houses really high. For a short period there, we could still sell them sometimes but more commonly they would sit on the market for a month or two with the sellers somehow bewildered that the house which was listed 10% above all comps was sitting there while the houses around them were selling. 

After spending an extra $10,000 in holding costs and getting below list price offers, they end up breaking even or losing money on deals they could have made $20-$30k on. Instead of learning their lesson, if they try again, they usually make the same mistake to try and recoop their losses on the next deal. 

#2) They are too hands off

For some reason the flipping scene tends to attract people who just want to pay someone else to flip houses and just collect profit. If you've been in the business for a while and you have a flipping machine going on, fine, no problem. But if you just expect contractors to show up and do their jobs and everyone is just going to treat you fairly and do what they say they are going to do with no supervision you're living in a dream world. Many houses I show up and start taking photos of work done by contractors and send it to the owners including: bad drywall repairs, crooked cabinets, chipped counters, holes left in roofs, lights that don't work, loose toilets, baseboards never painted, drips and runs in paint,  cabinets never sanded (rough to touch look ok in photos) tile floors uneven, the list simply goes on and on. 

Most of the time when this happens I find that the owners have never been to the property and usually are shocked, like they just expected everyone to do their jobs well with no supervision. If you don't care, and some truly don't, fine, that's your business. But more often than not, once showings begin, we get lots of showings and no offers. Because it looks good in photos but awful in person. Again the outcome, sits on market forever, holding costs add up, hopefully they make money but it's far less than I had told them (because I'm using comps that were  decently remodeled and expect the same) and in the end they usually blame me. 

#3) They don't have a plan before they begin

The primary problem here is similar to problem #1 but the reality is not knowing how much the house will sell for when it is finished. It's not a perfect science but 90% of the time you can find comps that have been flipped and if researched properly you should be able to get within 1-3% of the final price (barring poor workmanship mentioned above). But I find a lot of flippers just look at one or two comps, don't do any research on their own, and just assume that if they do more work they can just raise the list price to offset their costs. It doesn't work that way. Market economics, supply and demand, appraisals, are all going to set a general cap on the MAX price a particular home is likely to sell for. If you start with that number, and work backwards, you can practically guarantee that you make money. But most of the new flippers I work with work in the opposite direction. They start with how much they paid, then they add their costs, then they tell me what they want to list at. And, remember #1, where even if they got lucky and could still make $10-$20k on the deal, many of the inexperienced ones squander all their profit on holding costs and lost time on market resulting in lower offers. 

I think it's interesting because when Brandon was asking this question, most of the people are successful and obviously haven't failed (hence why they are being interviewed) and although some have much more experience than me, when I start to see these red flags with new clients of mine, the likelihood of the person succeeding in the long term are very low. There are other reasons related to experience in the trades, knowing what kind of improvements to do or not do, things like that which are more specific to each project/person. But I find these 3 things to be the easiest way to predict if someone will succeed or fail in this business. 

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  • Lender · PA · Member since 2019 · 533 posts · 461 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Patrick Kaiser:

    At the end of almost every podcast for many years, they used to ask, "What separates those that succeed from those that fail?" or something along those lines. 

    Over the years I've worked with somewhere in the range of around 20 flippers. For context I am a retail real estate agent. Generally speaking the flippers buy properties from wholesalers and I am not involved until sometime after they purchase the property. I only have a limited perspective, but from my point of view, these are the top 3 reasons flippers fail. 

    #1) They are too greedy

    In flipping you can sometimes make a lot of money. But on average, you might make $20-$30k on an average deal. I know sometimes you make more and inevitably somebody will comment they make $100,000 on every house, but in my experience $25,000 is a good expectation for an average budget flip.

    However, most people, usually on their first flip, find this number to be not enough. They don't care about comps, they don't care about market, they just want to make more. So, they insist on listing their houses really high. For a short period there, we could still sell them sometimes but more commonly they would sit on the market for a month or two with the sellers somehow bewildered that the house which was listed 10% above all comps was sitting there while the houses around them were selling. 

    After spending an extra $10,000 in holding costs and getting below list price offers, they end up breaking even or losing money on deals they could have made $20-$30k on. Instead of learning their lesson, if they try again, they usually make the same mistake to try and recoop their losses on the next deal. 

    #2) They are too hands off

    For some reason the flipping scene tends to attract people who just want to pay someone else to flip houses and just collect profit. If you've been in the business for a while and you have a flipping machine going on, fine, no problem. But if you just expect contractors to show up and do their jobs and everyone is just going to treat you fairly and do what they say they are going to do with no supervision you're living in a dream world. Many houses I show up and start taking photos of work done by contractors and send it to the owners including: bad drywall repairs, crooked cabinets, chipped counters, holes left in roofs, lights that don't work, loose toilets, baseboards never painted, drips and runs in paint,  cabinets never sanded (rough to touch look ok in photos) tile floors uneven, the list simply goes on and on. 

    Most of the time when this happens I find that the owners have never been to the property and usually are shocked, like they just expected everyone to do their jobs well with no supervision. If you don't care, and some truly don't, fine, that's your business. But more often than not, once showings begin, we get lots of showings and no offers. Because it looks good in photos but awful in person. Again the outcome, sits on market forever, holding costs add up, hopefully they make money but it's far less than I had told them (because I'm using comps that were  decently remodeled and expect the same) and in the end they usually blame me. 

    #3) They don't have a plan before they begin

    The primary problem here is similar to problem #1 but the reality is not knowing how much the house will sell for when it is finished. It's not a perfect science but 90% of the time you can find comps that have been flipped and if researched properly you should be able to get within 1-3% of the final price (barring poor workmanship mentioned above). But I find a lot of flippers just look at one or two comps, don't do any research on their own, and just assume that if they do more work they can just raise the list price to offset their costs. It doesn't work that way. Market economics, supply and demand, appraisals, are all going to set a general cap on the MAX price a particular home is likely to sell for. If you start with that number, and work backwards, you can practically guarantee that you make money. But most of the new flippers I work with work in the opposite direction. They start with how much they paid, then they add their costs, then they tell me what they want to list at. And, remember #1, where even if they got lucky and could still make $10-$20k on the deal, many of the inexperienced ones squander all their profit on holding costs and lost time on market resulting in lower offers. 

    I think it's interesting because when Brandon was asking this question, most of the people are successful and obviously haven't failed (hence why they are being interviewed) and although some have much more experience than me, when I start to see these red flags with new clients of mine, the likelihood of the person succeeding in the long term are very low. There are other reasons related to experience in the trades, knowing what kind of improvements to do or not do, things like that which are more specific to each project/person. But I find these 3 things to be the easiest way to predict if someone will succeed or fail in this business. 

     Hi Patrick, I agree with all pf your observations and respectfully add a few suggestions for those newbies who are reading your post and having a heart attack. First, one of the reasons newbies fail is they do not do the due diligence necessary for any project in life let alone a real estate deal. Many new investors read some books, listen to some pod casts perhaps attend some meetings and they immediately strike out to do their first deal. While all of those activities are valuable in acquiring knowledge on how to rehab and flip a house, they are no substitute for experience. I suggest that anyone wishing to chart a course in the real estate development industry find a mentor someone with significant experience and utilize their wisdom in preparing and executing on your first rehab. 

    Human capital is greatly under estimated in the rush to make money in the rehab. industry. Newbies should start by assembling a team of people who are experienced in each facet of the process.   Among others you need a good real estate agent experienced in investor properties. Add to that a insurance agent who understands the needs that you will have for liability insurance. Than find a contractor and get references and view examples of their work. Connect with a strong mortgage broker, banker or originator who can help procure the funds you need. Lastly, make sure your accountant is familiar with the rules relating to investor real estate so when you successfully complete your fix and flip you get to keep the money not Uncle Sam. Only after assembling this team should you be submitting offers for a property. Once you have submitted the offer and it is accepted you will not have the time to organize the transaction to insure that it is profitable. 

    Folks, you  first rehab. is a trial run. Start small and practice before you decide you are buying a property for 250k rehabbing it for 200k and selling it for 700K. I hope you get my drift. Good luck. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Mesa, AZ · Member since 2020 · 46 posts · 76 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Steven Goldman:
    Quote from @Patrick Kaiser:

    At the end of almost every podcast for many years, they used to ask, "What separates those that succeed from those that fail?" or something along those lines. 

    Over the years I've worked with somewhere in the range of around 20 flippers. For context I am a retail real estate agent. Generally speaking the flippers buy properties from wholesalers and I am not involved until sometime after they purchase the property. I only have a limited perspective, but from my point of view, these are the top 3 reasons flippers fail. 

    #1) They are too greedy

    In flipping you can sometimes make a lot of money. But on average, you might make $20-$30k on an average deal. I know sometimes you make more and inevitably somebody will comment they make $100,000 on every house, but in my experience $25,000 is a good expectation for an average budget flip.

    However, most people, usually on their first flip, find this number to be not enough. They don't care about comps, they don't care about market, they just want to make more. So, they insist on listing their houses really high. For a short period there, we could still sell them sometimes but more commonly they would sit on the market for a month or two with the sellers somehow bewildered that the house which was listed 10% above all comps was sitting there while the houses around them were selling. 

    After spending an extra $10,000 in holding costs and getting below list price offers, they end up breaking even or losing money on deals they could have made $20-$30k on. Instead of learning their lesson, if they try again, they usually make the same mistake to try and recoop their losses on the next deal. 

    #2) They are too hands off

    For some reason the flipping scene tends to attract people who just want to pay someone else to flip houses and just collect profit. If you've been in the business for a while and you have a flipping machine going on, fine, no problem. But if you just expect contractors to show up and do their jobs and everyone is just going to treat you fairly and do what they say they are going to do with no supervision you're living in a dream world. Many houses I show up and start taking photos of work done by contractors and send it to the owners including: bad drywall repairs, crooked cabinets, chipped counters, holes left in roofs, lights that don't work, loose toilets, baseboards never painted, drips and runs in paint,  cabinets never sanded (rough to touch look ok in photos) tile floors uneven, the list simply goes on and on. 

    Most of the time when this happens I find that the owners have never been to the property and usually are shocked, like they just expected everyone to do their jobs well with no supervision. If you don't care, and some truly don't, fine, that's your business. But more often than not, once showings begin, we get lots of showings and no offers. Because it looks good in photos but awful in person. Again the outcome, sits on market forever, holding costs add up, hopefully they make money but it's far less than I had told them (because I'm using comps that were  decently remodeled and expect the same) and in the end they usually blame me. 

    #3) They don't have a plan before they begin

    The primary problem here is similar to problem #1 but the reality is not knowing how much the house will sell for when it is finished. It's not a perfect science but 90% of the time you can find comps that have been flipped and if researched properly you should be able to get within 1-3% of the final price (barring poor workmanship mentioned above). But I find a lot of flippers just look at one or two comps, don't do any research on their own, and just assume that if they do more work they can just raise the list price to offset their costs. It doesn't work that way. Market economics, supply and demand, appraisals, are all going to set a general cap on the MAX price a particular home is likely to sell for. If you start with that number, and work backwards, you can practically guarantee that you make money. But most of the new flippers I work with work in the opposite direction. They start with how much they paid, then they add their costs, then they tell me what they want to list at. And, remember #1, where even if they got lucky and could still make $10-$20k on the deal, many of the inexperienced ones squander all their profit on holding costs and lost time on market resulting in lower offers. 

    I think it's interesting because when Brandon was asking this question, most of the people are successful and obviously haven't failed (hence why they are being interviewed) and although some have much more experience than me, when I start to see these red flags with new clients of mine, the likelihood of the person succeeding in the long term are very low. There are other reasons related to experience in the trades, knowing what kind of improvements to do or not do, things like that which are more specific to each project/person. But I find these 3 things to be the easiest way to predict if someone will succeed or fail in this business. 

     Hi Patrick, I agree with all pf your observations and respectfully add a few suggestions for those newbies who are reading your post and having a heart attack. First, one of the reasons newbies fail is they do not do the due diligence necessary for any project in life let alone a real estate deal. Many new investors read some books, listen to some pod casts perhaps attend some meetings and they immediately strike out to do their first deal. While all of those activities are valuable in acquiring knowledge on how to rehab and flip a house, they are no substitute for experience. I suggest that anyone wishing to chart a course in the real estate development industry find a mentor someone with significant experience and utilize their wisdom in preparing and executing on your first rehab. 

    Human capital is greatly under estimated in the rush to make money in the rehab. industry. Newbies should start by assembling a team of people who are experienced in each facet of the process.   Among others you need a good real estate agent experienced in investor properties. Add to that a insurance agent who understands the needs that you will have for liability insurance. Than find a contractor and get references and view examples of their work. Connect with a strong mortgage broker, banker or originator who can help procure the funds you need. Lastly, make sure your accountant is familiar with the rules relating to investor real estate so when you successfully complete your fix and flip you get to keep the money not Uncle Sam. Only after assembling this team should you be submitting offers for a property. Once you have submitted the offer and it is accepted you will not have the time to organize the transaction to insure that it is profitable. 

    Folks, you  first rehab. is a trial run. Start small and practice before you decide you are buying a property for 250k rehabbing it for 200k and selling it for 700K. I hope you get my drift. Good luck. 


     "Human capital is greatly underestimated in the rush to make money in the rehab industry". 

    I couldn't agree more with this sentiment. Way too many people relying on a few videos or a 10 minute seminar who suddenly think they are experienced. Just because someone who's been in the industry a while does not make them an expert, but having no experience means you should move more carefully in the beginning. If you are not experienced in construction trades, your money is probably well spent using an experienced general contractor until you know enough to hire trades out individually. With holding costs being $3-$4k a month, a 1 month delay, which is not hard to imagine at all if someone screws up a project, is probably going to cost you $4000. And that's one contractor. If we fall out of escrow due to discovered defects during inspection, that's another $4000 gone. Now you've lost $8000 for nothing when hiring decent contractor alone probably would not have cost that much. 

    It is truly startling how many people go out there and just try to wing it. It is possible to succeed that way, but in order for almost anyone to do that, they need to be able to listen to those who are experienced and especially with those who's interests align with yours. Sometimes the contractors are trying to extract as much money out of you as possible. I've seen a lot of even experienced flippers using lenders, agents, contractors, all of whom are just truly taking them for a wild ride, and nobody is there to tell them otherwise. I had someone pay $18,000 for a roof and they are telling me how great of deal it was, until I show them a quote from a nearly identical roof we replaced a month earlier for $8000. I had someone pay $12,000 for a single A/C unit when at the time we had another comparably sized unit replaced on another house for $6700. And again, they are trying to argue with me how great a deal they got. These things are not adding any value to the house in the eyes of the buyer or the appraiser. 

    Some people are happy just so long as they made money. But things are getting tougher, and inexperience is causing money loss even from those who might have been making money previously, but now only the ones who knew how to bargain and ensure every single thing was fairly priced (which almost nothing is right now) are still making decent profits. 

  • Bulawayo, Zimbabwe · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 253 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Patrick Kaiser:

    At the end of almost every podcast for many years, they used to ask, "What separates those that succeed from those that fail?" or something along those lines. 

    Over the years I've worked with somewhere in the range of around 20 flippers. For context I am a retail real estate agent. Generally speaking the flippers buy properties from wholesalers and I am not involved until sometime after they purchase the property. I only have a limited perspective, but from my point of view, these are the top 3 reasons flippers fail. 

    #1) They are too greedy

    In flipping you can sometimes make a lot of money. But on average, you might make $20-$30k on an average deal. I know sometimes you make more and inevitably somebody will comment they make $100,000 on every house, but in my experience $25,000 is a good expectation for an average budget flip.

    However, most people, usually on their first flip, find this number to be not enough. They don't care about comps, they don't care about market, they just want to make more. So, they insist on listing their houses really high. For a short period there, we could still sell them sometimes but more commonly they would sit on the market for a month or two with the sellers somehow bewildered that the house which was listed 10% above all comps was sitting there while the houses around them were selling. 

    After spending an extra $10,000 in holding costs and getting below list price offers, they end up breaking even or losing money on deals they could have made $20-$30k on. Instead of learning their lesson, if they try again, they usually make the same mistake to try and recoop their losses on the next deal. 

    #2) They are too hands off

    For some reason the flipping scene tends to attract people who just want to pay someone else to flip houses and just collect profit. If you've been in the business for a while and you have a flipping machine going on, fine, no problem. But if you just expect contractors to show up and do their jobs and everyone is just going to treat you fairly and do what they say they are going to do with no supervision you're living in a dream world. Many houses I show up and start taking photos of work done by contractors and send it to the owners including: bad drywall repairs, crooked cabinets, chipped counters, holes left in roofs, lights that don't work, loose toilets, baseboards never painted, drips and runs in paint,  cabinets never sanded (rough to touch look ok in photos) tile floors uneven, the list simply goes on and on. 

    Most of the time when this happens I find that the owners have never been to the property and usually are shocked, like they just expected everyone to do their jobs well with no supervision. If you don't care, and some truly don't, fine, that's your business. But more often than not, once showings begin, we get lots of showings and no offers. Because it looks good in photos but awful in person. Again the outcome, sits on market forever, holding costs add up, hopefully they make money but it's far less than I had told them (because I'm using comps that were  decently remodeled and expect the same) and in the end they usually blame me. 

    #3) They don't have a plan before they begin

    The primary problem here is similar to problem #1 but the reality is not knowing how much the house will sell for when it is finished. It's not a perfect science but 90% of the time you can find comps that have been flipped and if researched properly you should be able to get within 1-3% of the final price (barring poor workmanship mentioned above). But I find a lot of flippers just look at one or two comps, don't do any research on their own, and just assume that if they do more work they can just raise the list price to offset their costs. It doesn't work that way. Market economics, supply and demand, appraisals, are all going to set a general cap on the MAX price a particular home is likely to sell for. If you start with that number, and work backwards, you can practically guarantee that you make money. But most of the new flippers I work with work in the opposite direction. They start with how much they paid, then they add their costs, then they tell me what they want to list at. And, remember #1, where even if they got lucky and could still make $10-$20k on the deal, many of the inexperienced ones squander all their profit on holding costs and lost time on market resulting in lower offers. 

    I think it's interesting because when Brandon was asking this question, most of the people are successful and obviously haven't failed (hence why they are being interviewed) and although some have much more experience than me, when I start to see these red flags with new clients of mine, the likelihood of the person succeeding in the long term are very low. There are other reasons related to experience in the trades, knowing what kind of improvements to do or not do, things like that which are more specific to each project/person. But I find these 3 things to be the easiest way to predict if someone will succeed or fail in this business. 


    Thank You for sharing this.i am looking to get started flipping houses with private money lenders.i definitely do appreciate being hands on, in the first flips
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