Don't become passive investors

[Carlos Ptriawan]

If there's one thing I learnt from the massive crash of CRE in 2023(and 2024) is that "Do not become passive investors". WHen you are passive investor, you become the dumb money , your money is being misused or mismanaged by more experienced sponsor/operator. Why ? because when you are passive and you do have money, you tend not to understand the risk. When market changes, even the most sophisticated sponsor could collapse.

At the end of the day, it's better to become "active investors" where you know every single bit of your investment, your market, your realtor, your contractor, what's the actual repair cost, actual rent, appreciation and so on and so on. Real estate is very tricky, if one can be successful it's because investor can see the hidden pitfalls and trap, and have ability to dance with the unexpected. So understand every bit of risk is important. Don't just blindly follow "oh this is so passive and return is guaranteed", it's never work like that.

[John McKee]

It will be interesting to see how the banks handle these loans coming due in commercial.  They're not exactly in the disposal of real estate business.  I assume there will be some flexibility otherwise they will have a mess on their hands.

@David Song

[Jim Pfeifer]

That is an interesting, but very narrow perspective.  There is certainly "dumb money" in passive investing just as there is "dumb money" in active investing.  It is possible to be successful in either - it depends on your skillset, your goals, your time and many other factors.  I have been both an active and a passive investor and I have better results in passive investing - even through this difficult market.

The key, in my opinion, to any kind of investing is to understand the type of investing you are doing, the goals you have and the current state of the market.  Some strategies and asset classes are better in different market conditions - but difficult times doesn't mean you have to abandon an entire method of investing!  Now is the time to be cautious and even more thoughtful in your investment choices, but there are still plenty of compelling reasons to stay the course as a passive investor! 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @David Song:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @David Song:

Syndication certainly favors the syndicator, with all the risk on the passive investor. Even worse, the investor has no control. It’s probably better just to invest in SP5000 or QQQ.

With the current interest rate, commercial RE is in big trouble. I was on the phone with a BMO commercial mortgage guy this afternoon. The commercial mortgage market is DEAD, quote.

Rates are 8s up to 10s. Whereas the cap rate on active listings are 5, 6 range. No transactions. No qualified commercial loans based on current interest rate and cap rate offered.

To solve the problem, either the rate has to come down significantly (probably not going to happen in a few years), or the cap rate has to go up to 10s, which means the price has to be cut by almost half.

For those folks that has a maturing commercial mortgage, they can not refinance based on today’s rate. They can not sell at 6% cap. What are they going to do?

thanks for being so direct.

 the LP bought at 4 cap.
GP wanna get out at 5.5
buyer wanna buy at 6.5 only.

I keep hearing in-refinance , i don't know what that is, maybe refinancing / debt restructutization for another 5 years ? 

 Most commercial loans are only for 3 to 7 years. At the end of that period, the owner must pay off the existing loan and get another loan to pay off that old loan. If the loan is maturing in the next few months, the owner has no way to refinance at the current high rate, since the cash flow will not qualify for the double high interest rate. Oops! Bankrupt.

 THATS IT !

So there is inherent danger in commercial that never been talk about, becoz every GP is rushing to buy at discount->to rehab in hurry->to rent it out->to sell it quickly and do the same/repeat, this cycle can't be repeated in basic math because at one point, the cycle would go againts them. And that cycle is now.  
Everyone is promising the same thing. Multifamily syndication by average expecting 15% IRR with high single digit cash flow.

I am not blaming those GP, but from financial perspective, the lending aspect of it doesn't make sense. What has to change is, the lending structure, they should be able to keep the property for ten years, so if there's unexpected happening in the future , they could recoup the losses. 

There should be lender or banks that could finance them for at least ten years. 

From macro economic perspective, These cycle can only be executed when Fed is increasing money supply.

Syndication is like the wolf eating a wolf game, it's just at what one position during cycle that would determine you make it big money or you may commit suicide ( there's GP that's already committed suicide) just saying how serious it is ...

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Jim Pfeifer:

That is an interesting, but very narrow perspective.  There is certainly "dumb money" in passive investing just as there is "dumb money" in active investing.  It is possible to be successful in either - it depends on your skillset, your goals, your time and many other factors.  I have been both an active and a passive investor and I have better results in passive investing - even through this difficult market.

The key, in my opinion, to any kind of investing is to understand the type of investing you are doing, the goals you have and the current state of the market.  Some strategies and asset classes are better in different market conditions - but difficult times doesn't mean you have to abandon an entire method of investing!  Now is the time to be cautious and even more thoughtful in your investment choices, but there are still plenty of compelling reasons to stay the course as a passive investor! 

 correct, in term of each asset class volatility post interest rate hike, there are two asset class is performing better, I checked nationwide's self storage and indusrial is only negative 50 - 75 bps. 

These are the actual index-based risk-adjusted of core-asset investment. The first 4 col. is for each quarter, last one is annualized.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

while S&P is performing way better, single home appreciation is doing good, so they're quite resilient even during recession. However multifamily/hotels/mall/office asset class are extremely volative and too much rate-sensitive.

It's no longer even about particular syndicator, basically some of your asset class can't survive interest rate.

For average Joe and Mary, best advice is just to simply put money into SPY/SGOV or direct SF home ownership. It's wayyyyy safer.

The biggest question to all GP is this : can all you GP guys survive if Fed does't change their rate or only reducing by a bit ? 

i am worried about you.

[Jim Pfeifer]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

while S&P is performing way better, single home appreciation is doing good, so they're quite resilient even during recession. However multifamily/hotels/mall/office asset class are extremely volative and too much rate-sensitive.

It's no longer even about particular syndicator, basically some of your asset class can't survive interest rate.

For average Joe and Mary, best advice is just to simply put money into SPY/SGOV or direct SF home ownership. It's wayyyyy safer.

The biggest question to all GP is this : can all you GP guys survive if Fed does't change their rate or only reducing by a bit ? 

i am worried about you.

I am not a GP, I am a full time passive investor. Yes, most CRE asset classes are down but that doesn't make me want to run to the stock market or active real estate. Most of my investments are still cash flowing - the asset price went down, but I still receive cash flow. This is one of the biggest reasons I don't invest in the stock market - when you buy a stock or SPY, you are speculating. You are buying an asset and hoping you can hold it long enough to sell to someone else for more than you bought it. There is no, or very little, current benefit - there is no cash flow. With RE (active or passive), you invest in a real asset that provides (usually) a current benefit in the form of cash flow. When you sell, you will likely get appreciation - but that is not the main purpose of your investment.

Direct SF ownership might be safer - also, it might not be safer.   It depends on the market, the location and the type of single family home.  This is the same for any asset class - it depends on many factors.  You can share charts of the overall market in the U.S. but that doesn't tell you much about an asset in Cleveland or Dallas.  Real estate is local.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Jim Pfeifer:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

while S&P is performing way better, single home appreciation is doing good, so they're quite resilient even during recession. However multifamily/hotels/mall/office asset class are extremely volative and too much rate-sensitive.

It's no longer even about particular syndicator, basically some of your asset class can't survive interest rate.

For average Joe and Mary, best advice is just to simply put money into SPY/SGOV or direct SF home ownership. It's wayyyyy safer.

The biggest question to all GP is this : can all you GP guys survive if Fed does't change their rate or only reducing by a bit ? 

i am worried about you.

I am not a GP, I am a full time passive investor. Yes, most CRE asset classes are down but that doesn't make me want to run to the stock market or active real estate. Most of my investments are still cash flowing - the asset price went down, but I still receive cash flow. This is one of the biggest reasons I don't invest in the stock market - when you buy a stock or SPY, you are speculating. You are buying an asset and hoping you can hold it long enough to sell to someone else for more than you bought it. There is no, or very little, current benefit - there is no cash flow. With RE (active or passive), you invest in a real asset that provides (usually) a current benefit in the form of cash flow. When you sell, you will likely get appreciation - but that is not the main purpose of your investment.

Direct SF ownership might be safer - also, it might not be safer.   It depends on the market, the location and the type of single family home.  This is the same for any asset class - it depends on many factors.  You can share charts of the overall market in the U.S. but that doesn't tell you much about an asset in Cleveland or Dallas.  Real estate is local.

have not heard about dividend ?

REIT can generate cash flow and investor can always averaging down even when the NAV goes down. The position can also always be hedged so investor doesn't really lost a value while we receive the cash flow.

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

 James , it is not particular syndication, it is the whole asset class. Depending on their financing scheme , most of them needs debt restructurization after year 4 or 5 which means LP losing money.

everyone buying with sub cap 4 , they have to exit , banks want the money , they want exit with cap 4.5 ; buyer like us is asking for 5 cap.

The only way they can survive is by the fed cutting rate next year or there is massive debt refinancing deals given by the banks

[Jim Pfeifer]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Jim Pfeifer:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

while S&P is performing way better, single home appreciation is doing good, so they're quite resilient even during recession. However multifamily/hotels/mall/office asset class are extremely volative and too much rate-sensitive.

It's no longer even about particular syndicator, basically some of your asset class can't survive interest rate.

For average Joe and Mary, best advice is just to simply put money into SPY/SGOV or direct SF home ownership. It's wayyyyy safer.

The biggest question to all GP is this : can all you GP guys survive if Fed does't change their rate or only reducing by a bit ? 

i am worried about you.

I am not a GP, I am a full time passive investor. Yes, most CRE asset classes are down but that doesn't make me want to run to the stock market or active real estate. Most of my investments are still cash flowing - the asset price went down, but I still receive cash flow. This is one of the biggest reasons I don't invest in the stock market - when you buy a stock or SPY, you are speculating. You are buying an asset and hoping you can hold it long enough to sell to someone else for more than you bought it. There is no, or very little, current benefit - there is no cash flow. With RE (active or passive), you invest in a real asset that provides (usually) a current benefit in the form of cash flow. When you sell, you will likely get appreciation - but that is not the main purpose of your investment.

Direct SF ownership might be safer - also, it might not be safer.   It depends on the market, the location and the type of single family home.  This is the same for any asset class - it depends on many factors.  You can share charts of the overall market in the U.S. but that doesn't tell you much about an asset in Cleveland or Dallas.  Real estate is local.

have not heard about dividend ?

REIT can generate cash flow and investor can always averaging down even when the NAV goes down. The position can also always be hedged so investor doesn't really lost a value while we receive the cash flow.

 I have heard about dividends!  I prefer my cash flow to be just a bit better than that.

I am happy investing in syndications and you are happy investing in SPY and SF active rentals.  I think that's fantastic - my main reason for posting is just to remind people that there are plenty of different ways to make money in (and outside of) real estate.  People should do what they are comfortable with and be careful when people use words like "don't", "shouldn't" or "can't" in such a broad context.  

Honestly, I have no idea if you can make money in the stock market or with SF rentals right now - because I am not doing it.  I can tell  you, that you can make money as a passive investor in real estate syndications - I know that because I am doing it.  It is definitely not as easy as it was a couple years ago and we have difficult times ahead - but that doesn't mean I think it's a good idea for everyone to stop investing passively and run to SPY or single family homes.  

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

 James , it is not particular syndication, it is the whole asset class. Depending on their financing scheme , most of them needs debt restructurization after year 4 or 5 which means LP losing money.

everyone buying with sub cap 4 , they have to exit , banks want the money , they want exit with cap 4.5 ; buyer like us is asking for 5 cap.

The only way they can survive is by the fed cutting rate next year or there is massive debt refinancing deals given by the banks

 What is funny is like at the end it would work just like you described a year ago James , there would be TARP 2.0
we know there would be huge losses for LP this year but the actual owners of those asset are actually the lender.

Now the lender is getting screwed, if big bank collapsed due to CRE, the Fed has to create tarp 2.0 ; just yesterday there are news that the Fed is asking for the bank to increase their capital requirements LOL so the Fed would give cash infusion to the banks…and restart QE lol

Same cycle like 2008

[Dami F.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

Oh, you didn't have to state your inexperience, it was obvious. 

I have no clue what the heck your going on about with "syndicator boot camps", Nobody I know does anything even remotely close to such, nor would they, there not going to hand away there "secret sauce" and vs what they make as an active syndicator, they'd have to charge minimum $40k per student to make it remotely worth there time. 

To put in context, 1 cleared $1.25m in 18mnth's on just 1 value-add deal. 

To do a "boot-camp for syndicating" would be definitively stepping over dollars to pickup pennies. 

I got a feeling you don't actually know what a syndicator is and are mixing it up with someone's snake-oi.... sorry I mean Wholesaler boot-camp program. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

 James , it is not particular syndication, it is the whole asset class. Depending on their financing scheme , most of them needs debt restructurization after year 4 or 5 which means LP losing money.

everyone buying with sub cap 4 , they have to exit , banks want the money , they want exit with cap 4.5 ; buyer like us is asking for 5 cap.

The only way they can survive is by the fed cutting rate next year or there is massive debt refinancing deals given by the banks

That's not correct at all, I get where your coming from and for the "novices" it's almost certainly true, but not remotely accurate for the professional, proficient syndicators. 

Look, Carlos you know I come from that world so I will skip that whole discussion. 

At entry there is a multi-exit strategy and multi-hold strategy contingent planning well mapped out. And when it comes to financing and capital, it's not constrained by domestic borders. So sure, rates high etc. but what turmoil is going on elsewhere in the world? That present's an opportunity for additional capital does it not? 

The whole "art" of being a syndicator is the ability to raise capital. The problem your present of a financing issue, is readily resolved rather easily via raised capital. So it's a non-issue if one is good at what there supposed to be good at, follow. 

Additionally, the commercial financing is very different at the professional syndication level. We have conversations with banks that they won't/don't have with regular investor. Syndicators can negotiate terms and rates that are impossible otherwise, including on portfolio terms as in that banking entity is holding/servicing the financing themselves, on there books, not originating and selling it off. 

It's a different world. And as i said, everyone I know is sitting pretty, not an issue at all. Actually, most have been building up a "war chest" of capital getting ready to jump on opportunities as the novices fail-out. So the biggest issue I have heard from them is of getting criticism from investors for sitting on capital and not deploying yet, not on portfolio performance, they sold off the "troubled children" to novice investors at nose-bleed prices this past 24mnths, there sitting golden right now, literally. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

 James , it is not particular syndication, it is the whole asset class. Depending on their financing scheme , most of them needs debt restructurization after year 4 or 5 which means LP losing money.

everyone buying with sub cap 4 , they have to exit , banks want the money , they want exit with cap 4.5 ; buyer like us is asking for 5 cap.

The only way they can survive is by the fed cutting rate next year or there is massive debt refinancing deals given by the banks

 What is funny is like at the end it would work just like you described a year ago James , there would be TARP 2.0
we know there would be huge losses for LP this year but the actual owners of those asset are actually the lender.

Now the lender is getting screwed, if big bank collapsed due to CRE, the Fed has to create tarp 2.0 ; just yesterday there are news that the Fed is asking for the bank to increase their capital requirements LOL so the Fed would give cash infusion to the banks…and restart QE lol

Same cycle like 2008

Now were getting into a different post and stepping from Econ 402 into Econ 708. 

So yes, correct, the borrower is the USER not the owner, the bank/lender is the "owner" right. But....

But what if that Bank, financed via borrowed fund's itself, say something like where they themselves only ever had 10 or 20% of the capital they financed and borrowed the remainder via some big bank-2-the-banks? Isn't that regional bank, in a way, "owned' than buy there lender? Bet you know who that is don't ya Carlos? 

And if they had notion of such, they'd probably setup foundation of an entity as servicer of such, for "just in case" planning right, someone like, oh sayyyy J.P. Morgan Chase????....

 Now strapping on our tinfoil hat's; if there were some evil confab of trans-national elite's wringing there hand's saying "we want it ALL muah-ha-haaaa, hey Clause, how do we do it meee-heee-heeh?" well a great and wicked-smart consolidation would look something like get them all borrowing and high leverage, via getting the middle-man to sell your "crack" and for logistical ease, when time comes, do it in a way where your taking over masses by taking over the few "crack-dealers of finance".     By collapsing a segment of regional lenders, it becomes a consolidating event, because you the "evil genius's" of it all get to swop in wearing a hero's disguise, claim the victors conquest/rewards while staking you "must do it for the common good" and the sheeple applaud your consolidation vs fight it. 

Ok, tinfoil hat off. Things start to get really dark of ya wear that thing too long, lol. 

[Dami F.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

Oh, you didn't have to state your inexperience, it was obvious. 

I have no clue what the heck your going on about with "syndicator boot camps", Nobody I know does anything even remotely close to such, nor would they, there not going to hand away there "secret sauce" and vs what they make as an active syndicator, they'd have to charge minimum $40k per student to make it remotely worth there time. 

To put in context, 1 cleared $1.25m in 18mnth's on just 1 value-add deal. 

To do a "boot-camp for syndicating" would be definitively stepping over dollars to pickup pennies. 

I got a feeling you don't actually know what a syndicator is and are mixing it up with someone's snake-oi.... sorry I mean Wholesaler boot-camp program. 

 Like I said, I come in peace. If you think there are no syndication bootcamps which is where they sell their 40k mentorships, OK. Not going to mention names either, neither do I have to prove anything. Congrats on your guru status. Now we have to think of a title for those who’ve been doing it decades before you. 

That aside- let’s think about this logically- let’s say there are no 2-day bootcamps which makes me wrong, and those Covid syndicators paid 40k to your friends’ mentorships because that’s what the “secret sauce” and their time is worth which make you right, and then they’re now the “Covid operators” which is a term people like you use to try to prove whatever it is you’re trying to prove? LAUGHABLE! 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

Oh, you didn't have to state your inexperience, it was obvious. 

I have no clue what the heck your going on about with "syndicator boot camps", Nobody I know does anything even remotely close to such, nor would they, there not going to hand away there "secret sauce" and vs what they make as an active syndicator, they'd have to charge minimum $40k per student to make it remotely worth there time. 

To put in context, 1 cleared $1.25m in 18mnth's on just 1 value-add deal. 

To do a "boot-camp for syndicating" would be definitively stepping over dollars to pickup pennies. 

I got a feeling you don't actually know what a syndicator is and are mixing it up with someone's snake-oi.... sorry I mean Wholesaler boot-camp program. 

 Like I said, I come in peace. If you think there are no syndication bootcamps which is where they sell their 40k mentorships, OK. Not going to mention names either, neither do I have to prove anything. Congrats on your guru status. Now we have to think of a title for those who’ve been doing it decades before you. 

That aside- let’s think about this logically- let’s say there are no 2-day bootcamps which makes me wrong, and those Covid syndicators paid 40k to your friends’ mentorships because that’s what the “secret sauce” and their time is worth which make you right, and then they’re now the “Covid operators” which is a term people like you use to try to prove whatever it is you’re trying to prove? LAUGHABLE! 

Is there a reason your incapable of reading? Or this this just "Trolling Friday"? 

NOBODY I know sells any kind of syndicator mentorship or "boot-camp". 

I have never heard of a "syndicator boot-cap" so can't speak to such. 

I CLEARLY stated all the persons I know, never claming any kind of "GURU" status on such. 

Your just rambling on and on with wildly bizarre things, plucked from thin air it seems, speaking NOTHING to the actual conversation here. 

And a "Boot-camp for syndicators" in 2 DAYS! 2 days! Wow, you really are completely and totally oblivious as to what syndication or syndicators are?!     Stop assuming it's some other wholesaler thing, google "syndication" or "syndicator". 

And stop trolling, it's not cute, it doesn't win view's, it will win you ban's. This ain't tik-tok kiddo. 

[Dami F.]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

Oh, you didn't have to state your inexperience, it was obvious. 

I have no clue what the heck your going on about with "syndicator boot camps", Nobody I know does anything even remotely close to such, nor would they, there not going to hand away there "secret sauce" and vs what they make as an active syndicator, they'd have to charge minimum $40k per student to make it remotely worth there time. 

To put in context, 1 cleared $1.25m in 18mnth's on just 1 value-add deal. 

To do a "boot-camp for syndicating" would be definitively stepping over dollars to pickup pennies. 

I got a feeling you don't actually know what a syndicator is and are mixing it up with someone's snake-oi.... sorry I mean Wholesaler boot-camp program. 

 Like I said, I come in peace. If you think there are no syndication bootcamps which is where they sell their 40k mentorships, OK. Not going to mention names either, neither do I have to prove anything. Congrats on your guru status. Now we have to think of a title for those who’ve been doing it decades before you. 

That aside- let’s think about this logically- let’s say there are no 2-day bootcamps which makes me wrong, and those Covid syndicators paid 40k to your friends’ mentorships because that’s what the “secret sauce” and their time is worth which make you right, and then they’re now the “Covid operators” which is a term people like you use to try to prove whatever it is you’re trying to prove? LAUGHABLE! 

Is there a reason your incapable of reading? Or this this just "Trolling Friday"? 

NOBODY I know sells any kind of syndicator mentorship or "boot-camp". 

I have never heard of a "syndicator boot-cap" so can't speak to such. 

I CLEARLY stated all the persons I know, never claming any kind of "GURU" status on such. 

Your just rambling on and on with wildly bizarre things, plucked from thin air it seems, speaking NOTHING to the actual conversation here. 

And a "Boot-camp for syndicators" in 2 DAYS! 2 days! Wow, you really are completely and totally oblivious as to what syndication or syndicators are?!     Stop assuming it's some other wholesaler thing, google "syndication" or "syndicator". 

And stop trolling, it's not cute, it doesn't win view's, it will win you ban's. This ain't tik-tok kiddo. 

Tiktok, kiddo, really? Never mind lol. I rest my case. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

The whole "art" of being a syndicator is the ability to raise capital. The problem your present of a financing issue, is readily resolved rather easily via raised capital. So it's a non-issue if one is good at what there supposed to be good at, follow. 

Additionally, the commercial financing is very different at the professional syndication level. We have conversations with banks that they won't/don't have with regular investor. Syndicators can negotiate terms and rates that are impossible otherwise, including on portfolio terms as in that banking entity is holding/servicing the financing themselves, on there books, not originating and selling it off. 

It's a different world. And as i said, everyone I know is sitting pretty, not an issue at all. Actually, most have been building up a "war chest" of capital getting ready to jump on opportunities as the novices fail-out. So the biggest issue I have heard from them is of getting criticism from investors for sitting on capital and not deploying yet, not on portfolio performance, they sold off the "troubled children" to novice investors at nose-bleed prices this past 24mnths, there sitting golden right now, literally. 

 Totally agree with you on this.

At the end of the day, the big PIMCO/Blackrock/GS/JpMorgan guy would buy it all, just like what happen previously.

Currently, the big money with unlimited funds are with two titans, the oil titans and Tech Mogul ; maybe they would conquer all your LP 4 cap Multifamily and purchase it all with 7-cap tomorrow LOL.

It is just that, all those that purchase 4 cap , getting screwed LOL , now the same LP is praying to God to purchase the same exact complex with 6 to 7 cap LOL

LP investors still getting destroyed. GP make bit of money from waterfall that makes them can get some moneys LOL

It is like what our friend says, all the risk goes to LP, with minimum risk to the GP after the goverment intentionally trying to screw the economy LOL

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Dami F.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

I want even more Scott. And this needs to come from regulation.
Every  *private* syndication needs to have periodic 6 months a reported financial statement to investor in *public* and their future trajactory analysis of their investment.

Currently, It has better reward/risk when we invest at public REIT, because the result is available for public and everyone can gives their analysis. It's ok for their NAV/price to go up or down because all risks and future implication has been documented properly. When we as investor being told about the risk publicly, then we know the risk.

Make it the structure more like an Interval fund, so it's still not tradable, but there's periodic financial reporting to public. Not just to investor.

Every good syndicator I know (all are pre-covid operators) do a quarterly reporting to investors, and in times of any turmoil or significant changes, it's additional 411. 

I think the problem here is your lumping ALL syndicators, regardless of operational time and quality, into 1 big generalization. 

There was a "Syndication Gold-Rush" and with that, a lot of persons with "Gold-Fever" got in vs those with solid game-plans and know-how to PROPERLY do the operations of such. 

And with that, the investors have to hold themselves accountable for whom they selected, ever wisely or foolishly, to invest there $ behind. 

Every pre-covid syndicator I know is still doing great. The "Gold-Rush Syndicators", yeah I see a LOT of trouble's there. 

Hmmn.. maybe you should actually advise your pre-Covid operator friends to stop churning out Covid syndicators from their boot camps like it’s a pack of cigarettes. Or maybe they’re actually not doing as great and they need these mentorships/boot camps as their source of income. Because I am baffled when “experienced” investors/syndicators make condescending remarks about new syndicators in one breath and advertise their 2-day bootcamps in the other. Not just this post. I see it across linkedin too. 
Btw, I know Covid syndicators who have never lost their investors money. 
And if you’re wondering, I am not a Covid syndicator and didn’t pay a dime to anyone either. I am just defending the poor “Covid syndicators” who are doing things right. 
I come in peace. 

Oh, you didn't have to state your inexperience, it was obvious. 

I have no clue what the heck your going on about with "syndicator boot camps", Nobody I know does anything even remotely close to such, nor would they, there not going to hand away there "secret sauce" and vs what they make as an active syndicator, they'd have to charge minimum $40k per student to make it remotely worth there time. 

To put in context, 1 cleared $1.25m in 18mnth's on just 1 value-add deal. 

To do a "boot-camp for syndicating" would be definitively stepping over dollars to pickup pennies. 

I got a feeling you don't actually know what a syndicator is and are mixing it up with someone's snake-oi.... sorry I mean Wholesaler boot-camp program. 

 Like I said, I come in peace. If you think there are no syndication bootcamps which is where they sell their 40k mentorships, OK. Not going to mention names either, neither do I have to prove anything. Congrats on your guru status. Now we have to think of a title for those who’ve been doing it decades before you. 

That aside- let’s think about this logically- let’s say there are no 2-day bootcamps which makes me wrong, and those Covid syndicators paid 40k to your friends’ mentorships because that’s what the “secret sauce” and their time is worth which make you right, and then they’re now the “Covid operators” which is a term people like you use to try to prove whatever it is you’re trying to prove? LAUGHABLE! 

Is there a reason your incapable of reading? Or this this just "Trolling Friday"? 

NOBODY I know sells any kind of syndicator mentorship or "boot-camp". 

I have never heard of a "syndicator boot-cap" so can't speak to such. 

I CLEARLY stated all the persons I know, never claming any kind of "GURU" status on such. 

Your just rambling on and on with wildly bizarre things, plucked from thin air it seems, speaking NOTHING to the actual conversation here. 

And a "Boot-camp for syndicators" in 2 DAYS! 2 days! Wow, you really are completely and totally oblivious as to what syndication or syndicators are?!     Stop assuming it's some other wholesaler thing, google "syndication" or "syndicator". 

And stop trolling, it's not cute, it doesn't win view's, it will win you ban's. This ain't tik-tok kiddo. 

Tiktok, kiddo, really? Never mind lol. I rest my case. 

yep....

 Actually most of those syndicator that selling you guys 40k Multifamily course brou-ha-ha , they are the one in big trouble as of right now. Run away from any guru or wealth coach LOL...

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Ok, tinfoil hat off. Things start to get really dark of ya wear that thing too long, lol. 

At the end, goverment is coming to rescue.

Like what they did to AIG back in 2008. 

Too big to fail. The mine trap in commercial real estate is huge..... i don't know how many cycle of this I've seen in my life, but 2023 ain't the biggest, it took minimum 5 years before the dust settles. And then the investors going to repeat the same euphoria again lol

Its wolf eating wolf and eating wolf-way of business.

Now every GP outthere, look at the same excel sheet, find me all complex that would have debt maturity in 2024, I would buy it all with 20% discount LOL LOL

[Carlos Ptriawan]

so James, this wolf-eating-wold cycle, in the last 30 years of data happened three times :

1. First cycle is 1991-1993 ; LP investors are losing 13% by overall
2. Second cycle 2008-2009 ; LP investors are losing 40%.
3. Third cycle: 2022----still current ; so far LP investors are losing 13%

I think we're tracked to have the second biggest busted era of CRE this year, already overlapping 1991 fiasco for sure.

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

The whole "art" of being a syndicator is the ability to raise capital. The problem your present of a financing issue, is readily resolved rather easily via raised capital. So it's a non-issue if one is good at what there supposed to be good at, follow. 

Additionally, the commercial financing is very different at the professional syndication level. We have conversations with banks that they won't/don't have with regular investor. Syndicators can negotiate terms and rates that are impossible otherwise, including on portfolio terms as in that banking entity is holding/servicing the financing themselves, on there books, not originating and selling it off. 

It's a different world. And as i said, everyone I know is sitting pretty, not an issue at all. Actually, most have been building up a "war chest" of capital getting ready to jump on opportunities as the novices fail-out. So the biggest issue I have heard from them is of getting criticism from investors for sitting on capital and not deploying yet, not on portfolio performance, they sold off the "troubled children" to novice investors at nose-bleed prices this past 24mnths, there sitting golden right now, literally. 

 Totally agree with you on this.

At the end of the day, the big PIMCO/Blackrock/GS/JpMorgan guy would buy it all, just like what happen previously.

Currently, the big money with unlimited funds are with two titans, the oil titans and Tech Mogul ; maybe they would conquer all your LP 4 cap Multifamily and purchase it all with 7-cap tomorrow LOL.

It is just that, all those that purchase 4 cap , getting screwed LOL , now the same LP is praying to God to purchase the same exact complex with 6 to 7 cap LOL

LP investors still getting destroyed. GP make bit of money from waterfall that makes them can get some moneys LOL

It is like what our friend says, all the risk goes to LP, with minimum risk to the GP after the goverment intentionally trying to screw the economy LOL

Actually it get's even "darker" then that. Now remember, wife as MAI Appraiser, I have seen these bonkers 3.25 cap's and we both just shake our head's saying "what in the hell are they thinking?". But for the Pro Syndicator who DOESN'T do such insanity, is well capitalized, there clapping there hand's at this for 2 reasons. (A) it made a perfect situation for dumping the "trash" out of ones portfolio at great returns. And (B) it's a beautiful setup for big probability of snagging it post default, be it from the regional bank who financed it or whoever J.P. has entertaining liquidations when they take over asset's of the regional lender. 

And post default, remember it's removed of the capital that first "novice" syndicator pumped into it and lost. So now, the banking entity holding it, can liquidate it at a point that actually is viable and makes sense, something more in the ~7 cap region or heck, maybe even better. 

So there is a lot of incentive from some big long established entities in both syndication and banking/finance to just sit back, let others over-leverage and drive thing's bust, because picking up the ashes is more like picking up the gold. Be it sizable syndicators or J.P., they win. 

So with that, not much incentive to "bail-out" the failing syndicators. 

So when that TARP 2.0 comes, it will be directed to the big banking entity/ J.P. to "save the commercial financing world", to "create liquidity" which is a giant smoke and mirror trick because that TARP 2.0 is just added profits, the asset's are coming back liquid already, it's the LP's and regional bank and the regional bank investors who get burned, bad. 

But hey, such is conquest right. I assure that is the conversation in those board rooms "ah, almost feel sorry for the suckers, but hey, business is business". 

This is more like a hostile take-over than anything normalized finance world. It's as Buffest warned, the greatest transfer of wealth in human history in action. 

[Carlos Ptriawan]

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

So there is a lot of incentive from some big long established entities in both syndication and banking/finance to just sit back, let others over-leverage and drive thing's bust, because picking up the ashes is more like picking up the gold. Be it sizable syndicators or J.P., they win. 

totally hahaha , so the shark (read: goverment and their allies like jp morgan) is screwing the small dog and small wolf like the GP level, while the small wolf is screwing the humble chicken ( LP).

When everyone destroyed due to their own shark-inducing-volatility policy and then everyone dies, they come to rescue the market hahahaha lol 

i am lucky this is not my first busted cycle so i can comprehend whacca going on behind the screen. 

[James Hamling]

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Ok, tinfoil hat off. Things start to get really dark of ya wear that thing too long, lol. 

At the end, goverment is coming to rescue.

Like what they did to AIG back in 2008. 

Too big to fail. The mine trap in commercial real estate is huge..... i don't know how many cycle of this I've seen in my life, but 2023 ain't the biggest, it took minimum 5 years before the dust settles. And then the investors going to repeat the same euphoria again lol

Its wolf eating wolf and eating wolf-way of business.

Now every GP outthere, look at the same excel sheet, find me all complex that would have debt maturity in 2024, I would buy it all with 20% discount LOL LOL

Kind of. More like Big Business, carried on the shoulders of Big Gov., who big biz long bought and paid for, for these exact times. 

Hence the scariest word's in the English language; "I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help".... 

Halliburton "helping" in Iraq. That's cemented in my mind for how our Government translates "Help", Halliburton and electrocution showers.