Need advice on MTR potential in North County!

[Lisa Pond]

Hi all!

I have been researching the San Diego market and would love your advice on my situation / dilemma.  I'm going to give you a bit of context on what I already know below so you can weigh in most efficiently.  Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

I grew up in Encinitas and currently live out of state. I'm looking to buy a property that my family can spend summers at (2-3 months) but rent out for most of the rest of the year. I realize the opportunity cost of not having renters in peak season and am simply factoring myself in as a tenant. I'm looking at 2 to 3 bedrooms/2 bath condo/townhome/SFR from Del Mar up to Carlsbad west of El Camino Real. The closer to the beach the better, recognizing that comes with increased cost but potentially higher rents. HOA fees are OK provided the amenities make sense and I factor that in to my number crunching.

I've been researching the area and have found that many HOAs require > 30 day stays for rentals and the ones are STR are more rare and higher cost since they're near the coast, which makes sense. I also know that there have been changes (and could be future ones) that restrict STRs.

Here's my dilemma: 

I see some suitable properties but they need to be MTRs and it's unclear what my occupancy rate might be.  I can see some availability data on Airbnb for long-term stays but it's hard to tell what kind of demand there is for this.  I'm worried that my number crunching could be way off and something that seems cash-flow neutral might not be.  I understand there are travel medical professionals, relo's, temporary housing for reno, and digital nomads, but to be honest, it feels like demand could be choppy.  

Are MTR investors banking on future appreciation and accepting cash flow negative in short-term (1-3 years?)?   I am aware of and looking for opportunities like ADUs, finding unique situations, etc.  

Thanks in advance for your local perspective!