Using Speculation in Contemplating a Deal

[Sherry Lewis]

I have located a possible deal that could be the "diamond in the ruff" scenario but it is partially based on speculation. How dangerous is it to proceed and what are the chances of finding a money partner that is willing to go for it when speculation is involved?

A basic idea of the deal. I found an area where the owner of multiple properties passed away and I can get a good deal on multiple lots making up 2+ blocks of a neighborhood. There are also a few other houses in the area for sale. Right now this area would be considered a C market i.e. houses run down, older home owners and blue collar family area. This is not a "ghetto" area, just neglected. There is a school opening next year within walking distance of these properties as well as 80,000 troops being transferred into the area. The houses that are on some of the lots just need to be torn down, no value in fixing them up, and an entire block is vacant land ready to be built on, but the way the properties connect together, could make an excellent townhouse or modular (not manufactured) scenario. The rents in the area are 650-800 per month. The school will be undergraduate and masters degree programs.

My thoughts, although the neighborhood currently is a C market, because a large portion of the area is obtainable it will bring the value up for the entire neighborhood making it a much desired area especially considering the upcoming demand for housing.

I would like to know what people think of the idea, either good or bad and if there is anyone out there that might be interested in either partnering on a deal or paying a fee for all the deal and I would pass all research etc. to them.

Anxious to see what everyone has to say. I take the opinions on this site like gold! So here I am waiting for my gold rush!

[Steve L.]

Sherry, I think pursuing these types of deals is a waste of energy in this environment.

Unless it is highly sought out area (AKA San Francisco Bay) very few building projects can profitably pencil-out even if you get the land for almost free.

By the time you acquire the properties, demo the land and get permits approved it will be a multi-year process and probably not for a beginner.

Pursue the "low hanging fruit" for right now: buying a property for less than replacement cost, repositioning it for a resale profit or cash-flow.