Creative mathematics for deal analysis

Creative mathematics for deal analysis

Investor · East Lansing, MI · Member since 2014 · 82 posts · 43 votes

I live in a college town, where both rents and property values on rental properties are stable and relatively attractive. It seems like it should be a great place to own rental property. But when I run the numbers on duplexes in my area, the COC is in the 4-7% range and the total ROI is also rather low. The ratio of rent to purchase price is pretty good, so the poor return is largely due to the very high property taxes.

I could easily conclude that this area is not a good one for buying rental properties (at least not for me), but I thought I would first try some creative approaches to making the deals more appealing.

For the sake of this discussion, assume that the purchase price has already been reduced as much as possible based on all other factors, and that the numbers used for rental income, maintenance, etc. are conservative. In other words, remove all other issues from the equation.

Here is the proposed concept:

    1.Calculate the amount of additional monthly rental income that would be needed to achieve the desired COC return and total ROI.

    2.Multiply this monthly amount by a suitable number of years (say 5?).

    3.Reduce the purchase price by this amount.

    4.For the sake of assessing the deal only, count this price reduction as additional income that makes the COC and total ROI attractive. In other words, amortize the price reduction over the assumed number of years.

    5.Then, this argument could be used in the final negotiation of the purchase price.

If this works in the negotiation, would the deal now be a good one?

For every good idea I come up with, I have at least three bad ones. As a newbie in the real estate investing business, I’m not sure which category to put this one.

Any thoughts or suggestions?

Thanks,

Ron

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  • Specialist · Rockland, MA · Member since 2010 · 7k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    12y

    @Ron Averill

    You might consider Niche or Specialized Housing like student housing, vacation rentals. Rents can be 2-4 times more. Remember you don't have to own a property to control it.

    This highest and best use can make a smokin deal.

    Good luck

    Paul

  • Investor · East Lansing, MI · Member since 2014 · 82 posts · 43 votes
    12y

    Thanks Paul. Do you think my reasoning is valid on the deal analysis?

    Ron

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    12y

    Could you do that and make an offer, sure, is it valid, no. You need to bring the amount required for the desired yield to its present value to your cost of funds to evaluate what the price needs to be to yield the amount required. Not doing that increases the discount on the price and provides a greater yield but you can offer anything, in reality, if it is too much the seller will ignore you. :)

  • Investor · Louisville, KY · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    12y

    @Ron Averill - As Bill mentioned, you can offer whatever you want and justify it any way you want. But the reality of real estate is that demand drives pricing. It sounds like you're looking at an area with relatively high demand which is great if you're an owner, but not great if you're buying and looking for a deal.

    Think 5 years down the road when you're ready to sell off your first investment to purchase a larger property. Some young guy comes in with a low ball offer and says "well the derivative value based on this new reduced tax ratio formulation that I came up with justifies this offer I'm making you". You're going to laugh at him and say, sorry kid...the market (aka comps) justifies the price I'm asking and I'm not going to take 20% less because you came up with a formula. I'll just wait for the next buyer.

    The problem with hot rental areas is that the returns are not going to be amazing. Do you include the loan paydown and depreciation in your ROI and CoC numbers? That might be the kind of creative math you need to make the deal more attractive...just make sure not to skimp on the expenses or you might end up in the hole every month. Also watch out for deferred maintenance in "hot" rental areas. It tends to be the norm, most landlords won't do a whole lot of maintenance when they have 20 people lining up to rent out their units.

  • Real Estate Investor · Champaign, IL · Member since 2013 · 114 posts · 55 votes
    12y
    Originally posted by @Ron Averill:
    I live in a college town, where both rents and property values on rental properties are stable and relatively attractive. It seems like it should be a great place to own rental property. But when I run the numbers on duplexes in my area, the COC is in the 4-7% range and the total ROI is also rather low. The ratio of rent to purchase price is pretty good, so the poor return is largely due to the very high property taxes.
    I could easily conclude that this area is not a good one for buying rental properties (at least not for me), but I thought I would first try some creative approaches to making the deals more appealing.
    For the sake of this discussion, assume that the purchase price has already been reduced as much as possible based on all other factors, and that the numbers used for rental income, maintenance, etc. are conservative. In other words, remove all other issues from the equation.

    Here is the proposed concept:

      1.Calculate the amount of additional monthly rental income that would be needed to achieve the desired COC return and total ROI.

      2.Multiply this monthly amount by a suitable number of years (say 5?).

      3.Reduce the purchase price by this amount.

      4.For the sake of assessing the deal only, count this price reduction as additional income that makes the COC and total ROI attractive. In other words, amortize the price reduction over the assumed number of years.

      5.Then, this argument could be used in the final negotiation of the purchase price.

    If this works in the negotiation, would the deal now be a good one?

    For every good idea I come up with, I have at least three bad ones. As a newbie in the real estate investing business, I’m not sure which category to put this one.

    Any thoughts or suggestions?

    Thanks,

    Ron

    I agree with @Bill Gulley . But the above is rather confusing. As a semi newbie as well I would say do not try and reinvent the wheel. The formulas that are in place are there for a reason. If your evaluation comes up bad its not the formula that needs to change its the property(or its price). I also live in a college town and unless you plan on running all your deals threw a property manager. I would strongly suggest you get your feet wet outside of the college battlefield. Best of Luck, Keep us posted!

  • Investor · East Lansing, MI · Member since 2014 · 82 posts · 43 votes
    12y

    Bill and Michael,

    This is great advice. Just what I was looking for.

    I do include the loan paydown in my calculations, but not depreciation. I will add it in.

    I will try submitting a low offer and see what happens. The justification may not be accepted, but the offer might be. If not, then nothing lost on this one.

    Ron

  • Investor · East Lansing, MI · Member since 2014 · 82 posts · 43 votes
    12y

    Rob,

    I have a great mentor who will help with the property management, but I may still use professional management for the reasons you imply.

    As for the deal, I think there is just too much competition in some college towns. Apparently there were great times to jump into these markets, and now is not one of them.

    Ron

  • Investor · Saint Paul, MN · Member since 2012 · 128 posts · 56 votes
    12y

    @Ron Averill have you looked at the value of your deal over time? Assuming you finance the property, you're paying down the mortgage and building equity. How's net cash flow? If it's strong, you could use that to pay down the mortgage faster or save it for another investment.

    Depreciation is a non cash item. It doesn't affect monthly cashflow, but has benefits in terms of sheltering property income from taxes.

    It sounds like purchase price is your major concern. Have you tried looking for problem properties (off market, wholesale, poor condition, offer recently fell through, high days on market for MLS properties, etc.)?

    I think your approach to knowing your numbers before you buy is a good one. I also think it's ok to buy a good deal, not expect a great one, if net cash flow is strong and if it meets your other investing criteria.

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